Spaceandpeople Share Discussion Threads

[mg1982] 25/4/2014 12:36

Bear in mind that directors here have fairly modest salaries.

[horndean eagle] 25/4/2014 12:33

Director mentioned yesterday his previous purchases was derided on bb but said every little helps.

[tom111] 25/4/2014 10:49

Sorry topvest but how can that be a vote of confidence,a token gesture maybe

[topvest] 25/4/2014 10:44

Yes, that is a vote of confidence. A £5k purchase only, but better than nothing.

[fillipe] 25/4/2014 09:48

Already a big holder, Dir buys a few,



f

[graham1ty] 24/4/2014 17:47

I was at the AGM and will try and write up this evening.

[davidosh] 24/4/2014 16:37

It was the Agm today so there may be some reports out. The ShareSoc website has an Agm library of reports so there will probably be one filed there. www.sharesoc.org

[callumross] 24/4/2014 15:33

Definitely a big seller still out there using CFEQ

[callumross] 24/4/2014 13:35

Level 2 strengthening. Only one MM (CFEQ) still offering 73p and the next price on the offer from other MM's is 79p!

[bigdazzler] 23/4/2014 20:45

Cheers and maybe you should try some tetley tea Tom,you never know you might just like it, lol.

In all seriousness good luck to you as well.

[tom111] 23/4/2014 20:27

Ah so you admit you are a tea addict bd nothing wrong in that lol good luck with your charting. anyway

[bigdazzler] 23/4/2014 19:49

The tea leaves say that I have done very well out of this share and might present me with a chance to get in at a good price again to make further profit.

The tea leaves also say you Tom are 'a very naughty boy'



Last line said in jest of course.

[tom111] 23/4/2014 18:20

The share cap is now only 13 million which dosnt inspire me with confidence,anyway good luck Lanzarote666,but you may have a long wait.Sometimes it pays to bail out and get into something half decent.

[lanzarote666] 23/4/2014 17:40

@paulypilot on twitter a short while ago;

'Taken the plunge & doubled my position in SAL at 70p. Done a lot of digging, and believe current problems are fixable'

[tom111] 23/4/2014 16:59

So what does the chart say now bd,sorry tea leaves.You can live in hope I guess

[bigdazzler] 23/4/2014 14:34

Disagree with they are useless in a case like this Tom. I agree it didn't show any indication of the bolt out the blue as I ve said so myself in my last post.
Charts/T.A.sometimes do show when companies have an issue that is not known to the masses as charts will sometimes pick up on insider trading so to speak and you can talk about whether insider trading happens till the cows come home ( and I stress I am not referring to this company about that issue).

However charts for me have now become relevant in regard to this share drop as it now shows me important support/ resistant points, trading ranges etc and indicators will show when momentum is changing etc and will give clues of when/if positive momentum will return.

Anyway each to there own and I hope this share does recover and recover well.

[tom111] 23/4/2014 14:21

Charts are utterly useless in a case like this,this is something that was unexpected,no one would have expected the bad news coming out so soon after such a bullish statement.

[bigdazzler] 23/4/2014 10:05

Shame as this share is obviously held by good quality investors and not the usual ramp brigade.
I am please I managed to sell out at end of last year which was based more on the fact that anything associated with the retail sector has it highs around that time or soon after (slight generalisation I know).My main trading edge is based around T.A and as I have stated my sell this time wasn't based on T.A and If I had left it to my T.A I think I would have been included in the hammering of the share price as the chart to me gave no indication of such a fall. I have even looked back at the chart and indicators now and with hindsight I can still see no clues being given to such a potential fall.

My fears as I stated the other day have proved correct and the 80p has been broken and as said we are now firmly back in the trading range of 50p-80p. So at the moment there's still further room for the downside. This coupled with the house broker slapping a sell recommendation on the company and the fear of further bad news I am standing on the sidelines for the time being.

[graham1ty] 23/4/2014 06:41

Top....it's Thursday isn't it ? The AGM

[topvest] 22/4/2014 20:50

Well it will be interesting to see what they say on Friday. Anyone going?

[battlebus2] 22/4/2014 20:00

I too had a lucky escape selling after the last news. The directors selling spooked me but the fall in the UK side of things was the last straw and I sold though I have been selling down quite a few I may have kept these for the dividend. I agree that the management should have been aware before the last numbers. This time lucky.

[tom111] 22/4/2014 19:43

I sold at 139p recently and just looked in to see what was going on,frankly I was shocked to see the recent announcement.I can only see this dropping a lot further.I agree with your remarks Woodcutter how possibly can you invest in a company that does a U turn in such a short space of time three weeks ????

[woodcutter] 22/4/2014 17:58

i thought about buying in here many times back in march through may last year and thankfully didn't. Never felt totally comfortable with the business model, there just doesn't seem any barriers to entry. Unless i misunderstand it the only safety net seems to me to be the length of their contracts but once they mature anyone else could come in and compete.

more importantly i feel the managment are now discredited given the timing of this announcement. I just can't see a reason to invest.

One i got lucky on i guess.

Woody

[mg1982] 22/4/2014 12:20

Paul Scott's latest comment on this:

Finally, for anyone who missed it, this is just to flag up that the nasty profit warning from Spaceandpeople was covered in last Thursday's report here. Having had a few days to think about it, talk it through with other investors, and having read the latest broker notes from Cantors and ED, I am neither a seller nor a buyer.

In my opinion the market has correctly re-priced the stock, significantly lower, in line with a considerably reduced profit forecast for this year, and some knock-on effect into next year too. It has come as a bolt from the blue, as the company was so upbeat just a month ago, and I think that does raise questions about potential weaknesses in the company's own forecasting, and possibly glossing over negatives in telling investors what we wanted to hear?

Although as this morning's note from Cantors points out, SAL actually ran into material issues in all their main trading divisions simultaneously, and that's whacked profits for this year. However, delays will be resolved, and costs can be reduced, so it is reasonable to assume that profits (and the share price) will recover.

As a small cap investor I accept that sometimes things will go wrong. Small companies' shares tend to be much more volatile than larger companies, as they often rely on a small number of key clients, contracts, and staff. So there is a greater propensity for things to go wrong. You can analyse the figures to death, and eradicate risk as much as possible, but it's all still down to execution. So if things go wrong, then the valuation can suddenly change. We can only go on the current information that we have available at any point in time. Events will then unfold, sometimes as we expect, and sometimes unexpectedly, as in this case.

So whilst in no way trying to gloss over the fact that this is indeed a nasty profits warning from SAL, the fact is that the company remains profitable (even in a bad year), it has a sound Balance Sheet with no debt issues, and has continued winning new business. Also it has had an excellent track record over the last five years, and in my experience companies that are basically sound, but which hit a trading downturn, can usually fix the problems in about 6-12 months. The share price often starts to anticipate recovery before that. So if you like the business, the management, and are a long term holder (as I am with SAL), then it's a case of riding out the short term disappointment.

However, I do think that management will need to take a more conservative approach to forecasting from now on, and not again stoke up investor expectations of growth, when they are actually running into significant challenges.

It's an entrepreneurial company, in a niche that it effectively created from scratch, so I can live with some bumps in the road. However, the jury is out on this one for the time being, and the share price has reflected that already. The latest house broker forecasts are for 5.3p EPS this year, 8.0p in 2015, and 10.5p in 2016. The market might need a few months to get comfortable with relying on the 8.0p forecast for next year, so if/when it does, I foresee a recovery to perhaps the 100p share price.

However, if there's more bad news to come later this year, then it will mean another lurch down in price. Bear in mind also that the 4.1p dividend for 2013 is being paid this Friday, 25 Apr, so the shares have already gone ex-divi. So that's actually quite helpful in cushioning the recent blow. Management are paid relatively low salaries, and little bonuses, but instead rely on the divis themselves, so there's an excellent convergence of interests with shareholders here. So whilst I imagine the 2014 dividend (payable in April 2015) is likely to be cut, this is a company which has a history of paying out decent divis, and generating the cashflow to do so.

So overall, I'm very disappointed at the turn of events here, but am prepared to continue running with what has always been intended as a long-term holding of mine. However, I'll keep that under review, and reserve my right to sell the shares if I think more problems are looming. It doesn't pay to fall in love with any share. However it also doesn't pay to throw out the baby with the bathwater if problems arise which can be fixed.

A small final point is that management have come clean about the deterioration in trading, and 'fessed up just a week before the AGM, which is being held in central London at 10am. That's important because this is a Scottish company, so the fact that the AGM is being held at an accessible time & place for many investors, shows that they are not trying to hide away from the problems. Quite the opposite in fact, and I know that management have been on the phones talking to investors and analysts. So anyway, we'll see how it pans out after this significant setback.

I think management need to be apologetic, and to properly explain at the AGM what went wrong, and what they are doing to fix it. The worst thing to do is what I've seen before at some AGMs, where a pompous Chairman tries to shut down questioning, and gives dismissive answers to anyone trying to ask questions, rattles through the formal business, and then tries to close the meeting! This is a red rag to a bull, and I'm sure won't happen at SAL's AGM. I can't make it unfortunately, due to a prior engagement, but am looking forward to the feedback from several friends who are going, and will be asking some tough questions (which need to be asked, and more importantly, answered).

[envirovision] 22/4/2014 09:43

Catch a falling knife there are many many good and very genuine small caps out there creating adding and making genuine value for shareholders Topvest, just not this one I rather thought.

I still feel there is another few lots of bad news in the pipeline, they say bad news comes in threes with company fortunes and in the main that's proved time and time again a reasonable expectation.

Where do you expect the share price to be in a years time, higher or lower?

My reasoning tells me it's going to probably be considerably lower then today's price. Remember there are mostly no tangibles here, just intangibles goodwill and debt. According to ADVFN if one shut up shop tomorrow, net return to shareholders would be -25p, hmmm one couldn't even afford to go bust could they ! This of course means shareholders fate is likely to be one of loosing ownership as creditors (including suppliers and banks) take the necessary steps to secure whats needed, I dont fancy being a shareholder in those circumstances myself. Goodluck if you like it though