Sopheon Share Discussion Threads

[janeann] 28/7/2019 21:14

Many thanks bamboo; yes watching with interest, frustration and hope.

[bamboo2] 28/7/2019 20:08

jane, I feel genuinely sorry about the state of the chart.

I have had countless SPE trades, mostly enjoying a good return. It has been my go to stock for trading, for a very long time.

The recent completion to tp of the H&S has left a precarious position with an overhead gap that will take some filling, and as I mentioned above, this is resistance.

On the downside, I would expect the support zones to provide an obstacle to the tp.

We'll have to watch the price action for signs of a reversal pattern.

[janeann] 28/7/2019 17:22

well bamboo - that seems a very pessimistic view - do you think you bear flag tp is remotely realistic?

[bamboo2] 27/7/2019 12:51

Posting for me and for any one else interested.
{away in early August and may need to refer to on mobile]

Breakaway gap down dated 24/7/2019 measures 840-916. [overhead resistance zone]

Breakaway gap support zones

04/01/2018 368.2-380
29/01/2018 510-520
06/01/2018 604-610.4

Low h support 330

Potential turns on the mid chart

1/8/2018, 5/8/2018, 8/8/2018

Bear flag tp approx. 488.7

[tightfist] 26/7/2019 17:35

Hi Buywell,I haven't gone back and looked at average contract length info but with its strategic and training implications I would expect multi-year contracts - which is presumably the point at which SaaS becomes an alternative.Judging by the quick change in sentiment one gets the impression that a couple of large customers unpredictably swerved towards SaaS?Cheers, tightfist

[buywell2] 26/7/2019 15:07

This transition can last a lot longer than 12 months

Even longer than 2 years IMO , I have witnessed it myself

[tightfist] 26/7/2019 14:59

Looks like Sage also had similar SaaS transition woes yesterday. When making this transition I guess you rely on having really "sticky" customers, unless your contracts protect you adequately against short-term cancellation?I was a bit surprised by the competitive industry comment. I perceived Accolade as operating in it's own niche which SPE is working to expand. If there is competition out there with similar functionality please let us know.Cheers, tightfist

[edjge2] 26/7/2019 10:05

Not much going on here but in for a punt as held these previously

[tom89] 25/7/2019 10:30

So IF Sopheon sell more licences there MAY be be an increase in revenue. The boast about Accolade sounds like it was a one trick pony, all eggs in one basket,and last chance saloon.
This is a highly competitive industry and Sopheon have really got work to do. Have they misjudged this market?
Kainos March preliminary results statement: SaaS and software-related revenues up 6% to GBP16.9 million (2018: GBP15.9 million).
Very strong revenue growth in Digital Services, up 69% to GBP132.6 million (2018: GBP78.6 million).

[robow] 24/7/2019 16:08

Sopheon plc (SPE)
from Progressive this morning

The mixed blessings of SaaS



Sopheon’s H1 2019E update states that revenues and EBITDA will be lower than H1 2018, at around $13.7m and $2.0m respectively. This is as a result of a delay in closing some licence contracts (and H1 2018 was a tough comparator). Further, although the group is enjoying a very strong pipeline (up 48% in value since January), “an increasing proportion” of this pipeline is likely to be SaaS, so H2 revenue is unlikely to be sufficient to reach consensus full year estimates. The result of a greater number of SaaS licenses should be an increase in revenue visibility over the longer term and a fillip to recurring revenue in FY 2020 and beyond; however, it impacts revenue recognition in the near term. Full year revenue is now expected to be similar to FY 2018, and we are reducing our estimate for FY 2019E by 8% with EBITDA decreasing by 22% to the figures below. We also reduce our estimates for FY 2020E by 5% and 14% respectively – hopefully this will prove conservative. We hope to see a good increase in annualised recurring revenue during H2, which will underpin estimates for 2020 and beyond.

Click here for full analysis

|Progressive research on Sopheon|
|Sopheon plc|
|Progressive Equity Research|

[chasbas] 24/7/2019 15:51

I agree with the above posts re switch to SAAS. My example is Eckoh (ECK) which I sold too early because I was impatient, missing out on a big profit. So I'm sitting tight. Elements of the trading statement are very positive, including FinnCapp's note

[xajorkith] 24/7/2019 15:34

On holiday & internet down until now (annoyed to have missed this morning’s drop).

Credit where credit’s due Bamboo2 - with the share price pretty much hitting your recent tp forecast.

Frustrating, but in the longer term interest of shareholders, with the multi-year SaaS model and “unprecedented volume of opportunities” likely to reap significant rewards in the years ahead.

[mfhmfh] 24/7/2019 12:13

from my experience when a company announces a switch to a SaaS model there's always a short-term fall in profit and over-reaction of the share price. medium-term (not even longer term) the share price recovers and moves to new highs.

KNOS is a good example of this. well done to people who bought at under 700 today.

All IMHO.

[puzzler2] 24/7/2019 12:09

What some are missing, I think, is that once companies sign up to a SaaS model, the monthly direct debit just rolls on and is rarely questioned, provided that service quality remains strong and there's a need for the software product - similar to individuals and gym membership.

[toptrump1] 24/7/2019 11:53

A few have misunderstood the statement about move to SaaS it appears
I Bought in this morning.
Great opportunity, they don’t come along often, Amazed to get in so cheap for a super growth co.
A little short term pain maybe for a longer term gain.

[tim1478] 24/7/2019 11:11

Tricky decision. I came out after the last annual results and posted my thoughts on this blog and was persuaded by the responses that the firm was going places and would make increased profits although to my eyes they seemed overrated. I bought back and have done so again on the hope that the optimists are right. However , I have a stop loss on 50 % of my position at 690 and if this is seen will probably exit totally. I am in but have the exit door ajar!

[skyracer] 24/7/2019 11:03

Its the start of a slippery slope :

" There is a continuing move away from the upfront licence model towards our cloud delivery (SaaS) services. " (Dillistone 30 April 2019). Makes it easier for clients to control and eventually cut costs.

In order to maintain rising revenue, sales, marketing and R&D expenses will need to keep increasing.

[tightfist] 24/7/2019 10:45

Too late too - just offered 835p! - nothing done.....

[tim1478] 24/7/2019 10:32

Just bought in. A bit late

[mad foetus] 24/7/2019 10:26

Think this ends with a takeover before autumn, £12/14 level is my guess

[tightfist] 24/7/2019 10:13

Hi Buywell,I guess you are put-off by either the rapid change(?!) or the inconsistency of reporting regarding SaaS take-up. I certainly was - but then I saw the prospects of the holy grail of increased recurring revenue share - if one believes in the business fundamentals..... tightfist

[gswredland] 24/7/2019 08:59

Fall a Bit overdone!

[buywell3] 24/7/2019 08:42

On 13th june AGM statement said:

'customer preference for Software as a Service ("SaaS") rather than perpetual licensing in our market is beginning to come through.'


Today 24th July , ... 41 days later the update says:

'With an unprecedented volume of opportunities in the sales funnel, we anticipate rising deal flow and traction through the balance of the year. An increasing proportion of these opportunities are opting for a multi-year, Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) model rather than perpetual.'






Hence buywell won't be investing ... thank you

[puzzler2] 24/7/2019 08:39

Bought in to SPE today. I'm hoping to be able to look back at this dip in the share price as a great opportunity to have bought in at a reasonable price.

[buywell3] 24/7/2019 08:35

Bullish wasn't it