Sopheon Share Discussion Threads

[aimingupward2] 04/2/2019 09:14

Sorry, bamboo, I’m not able to do charts.

I thought I’d explained it clearly enough, so don’t know what else to say.

Edit: If you draw a descending line over the three recent peaks and an ascending one under the lows they would meet in around 6-7 weeks time and some sort of breakout is certain by or before then - more likely up if we get a good forward looking statement.

[shanklin] 03/2/2019 17:37

Thank you bamboo2

[bamboo2] 03/2/2019 17:18

aiming, I have had a look at what you describe but I cannot really see what you mean. Any chance you could elaborate or post a chart?

Longer term it looks like price is in a trading range approx. 1020-1375

[aimingupward2] 02/2/2019 12:59

Bamboo. shouldn't you take you graph back to include the high reached at the beginning of December? If you do, and without going into the depth of detail that you have done, it seems likely that the triangular flag pattern will lead to the share price bobbling about around the £12 mark for 6-7 weeks before a breakout which one could hope might be triggered by the results and forward looking statement on 21st March.

[bamboo2] 02/2/2019 11:49

Shanklin, Another bear flag and H&S pattern. Both unconfirmed. [ie not yet valid!]
TP on flag is approx. 910 Tp on H&S is approx. 980
Historical support at 1020 suggests it is unlikely that these tp's will be met.
Potential turn showing for early next week, 4-5/2/2019

[mikeh30] 01/2/2019 21:51

"""""Nice update but ran out of steam?Remember holding these at 68p. Sold for about 30%. Doh!!!(Off topic look at PTRO)""""PTRO looking strong. Dyor

[big7ime] 31/1/2019 10:07

Not a heady rating by a long chalk

[wjccghcc] 30/1/2019 17:40

Progressive have upgraded EBITDA to $8.7mm and PBT to $5.9mm vs $8.0mm and $5.1mm last year. Fincap have upgraded EBITDA to $9.0mm and PBT to $6.5mm vs $8.1 and $5.3mm last year (they have a slightly different definition). Either way, EBITDA is up about 10% and PBT around 18%.

[valhamos] 30/1/2019 16:32

FinnCap yesterday stated, "We lift FY18E EBITDA from $8m to $9m".

As that was based on only increasing FY18E revenue by $0.5m ($32.5m to $33m) one is left with the impression that FinnCap's model is desperately playing catch-up with events.

For some reason when last full year results were announced FinnCap forecast 2018 EBITDA of $7.4m which was lower than the previous year and decided to keep this forecast unchanged at the interims despite a strong first half performance with EBITDA increasing by 36%.

Forecasts are to be treated as a bit of fun and a company that wishes to under-promise and over-deliver has a vested interest in encouraging overly cautious forecasts. So I certainly would not rely on forecasts and upgrades as a basis for investment decisions when the actuals seem to provide a more reasonable guide to the future.

[shanklin] 30/1/2019 15:31

2014 Revenue $18.3m EDITDA $1.2m LBT $1.5m, Difference $2.7m
2015 Revenue $20.9m EBITDA $4.1m PBT $1.2m, Difference $2.9m
2016 Revenue $23.2m EBITDA $5.2m PBT $2.7m, Difference $2.5m
2017 Revenue $28.5m EBITDA $8.0m PBT $5.1m, Difference $2.9m
2018 Revenue $33.0m+ EBITDA $8.8m+, PBT?

Perhaps EBITDA will be circa $10m based on the operational gearing, so PBT circa $7m?

[investopia] 30/1/2019 15:27

I don't like the look of the chart on this one -- big, wide swings not a good sign.

I think it may need to reset before a big mover higher.

That looks suspiciously like a triangular top forming on the chart, to me, and the sell volumes have been exceeding the buy volumes lately too.

If it does prove to be a triangular top, I'd expect a sharp move lower taking the share price well below the bottom of the triangle. 800p to 900p looks like a decent target on the chart because of all the technical resistance there.

From 800 or so, it could build a new base ready for another break upwards, but my guess is the process could take months rather than weeks. None of this a problem for long termers, of course, and I could be wrong

[samsj] 30/1/2019 14:23

Sorry but really painful reading some of this rubbish. You are a bit soft. I remember the panic in 2016 when SPE came off a good run, and then in 2017, both were about 30% retraces. This has always been a choppy trader. 2018 saw 2 moves of around 20-25%.


I don't really care any more or try to time it- perhaps I should have sold more at 500p in March 2017. The year was a bit dull to be fair.


But please don't pretend to understand the share or the business when yesterday you didn't even know the forecasts.


EBITDA was revised up over 8m by FinnCap in October. They wrote in the TS that they would significantly outperform that figure, which is presumably +10%. FinnCap now write 9m for this year. PBT is also significantly outperform. Yes, we don't know the numbers but the crucial thing is the gearing - unless they are plowing into new hires (which they have again struggled with) then last year a 23% move in revenue led to a almost 90% (?) move in PBT. An 11% move in revenue the year before saw PBT more than double.


When they say there is a very good pipeline I believe them. There are various other qualitative things I think you also don't understand because you simply haven't done the work.

If you can't stomach the volatility without naff opinions about the tax asset etc when you clearly haven't got real insight then it's a good thing you sold.

[shanklin] 30/1/2019 12:42

FinnCap yesterday stated, "We lift FY18E EBITDA from $8m to $9m".

So, presumably you think PBT and EBITDA are identical?

Last year for SPE, EBITDA was $8.0m and PBT was $5.1m.

SPE may beat the above numbers but nowhere in the TS do that direct that this is the case. If only they had!!

[shanklin] 30/1/2019 12:20

So, are you saying EPS will be up for a non-operational reason despite PBT essentially only being maintained at circa last year's level?

[arphillips] 30/1/2019 12:18

Shanklin have a look at the RNS dated 22.12.17 where convertible loan stock owned by the directors was converted early into shares to tidy up the balance sheet. The 2.5m shares issued have a major impact on EPS but not diluted EPS.

[shanklin] 30/1/2019 12:08

Okay, so please explain from the numbers provided yesterday how you know that to be the case? I think you may be some time.

[arphillips] 30/1/2019 12:00

The diluted EPS figure for 2019 will have significantly increased from the previous year as has the Profit Before Tax.

[shanklin] 30/1/2019 11:19

One of my concerns is that having set a forecast below last year's earnings, they have upgraded it steadily but only to a level where earnings are essentially maintained. They may be doing far better than this given the vagueness of their RNS but I would rather they had been explicit about this.

[toptrump1] 30/1/2019 11:17

Where’s bamboo when you need him?!

[trinko] 30/1/2019 11:13

True cfro! But last year at the same time Revenue visibility already stoot 30% higher + more need odd people what is very good but cot will go up.

My only concern is P/E Harry William, profit is probably 50P so do the math.

PE aprox 25

Good luck to all

[gleach23] 30/1/2019 11:07

Yes harrywilliam...one would normally expect such a statement to support the share price pretty well up to results on 21 March, notwithstanding the run of the last year

[cfro] 30/1/2019 11:06

Traders and investors exiting then provide opportunities for others.

Revenue visibility already stands at $19.4m which is $1.4m ahead of last year at this time.

Cash nearly double last year and prospects in the US have never been stronger. Plus new opportunities for growth in Asia.

[harrywilliam] 30/1/2019 10:29

I quite like significantly ahead statements to be fair

[trinko] 30/1/2019 10:01

Shanklin i had the same feeling, I sold all my holdings Yesterday. some at opening last before 10 am.

Good luck to you all

Trinko

[shanklin] 30/1/2019 09:42

FWLIW, I sold my SPE yesterday afternoon and this morning. Given the high forward P/E I decided I needed a lot more visibility than was provided yesterday to be confident that future growth justifies the high rating. Will revisit if we get a clearer picture that strong future profit growth does exist.

Obviously a shame I did not make my mind up faster and sell first thing yesterday morning.