Solo Oil Share Discussion Threads

[stonefold] 02/8/2018 13:47

Try replacing http (lowercase) with Http hTTp httP HTTP (at least one character uppercase)

[kwizza] 02/8/2018 13:46

try changing the hxxps to hTTps normally works cp

[cperkin] 02/8/2018 13:41

For goodness sake!

hxxps://goo.gl/mNhvNU

[cperkin] 02/8/2018 13:40

hxxps://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/vox.assets.private/july/AEX+-+Presentation+V2.mp4

[cperkin] 02/8/2018 13:39

AEX turner pope presentation on Ruvuma history and development.

hxxps://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/vox.assets.private/july/AEX+-+Presentation+V2.mp4


a bit jumpy and best viewed after right clicking and downloading, file is clean at time of posting.

AEX own 25% of the asset, SOLO own 25% of the asset.

Best of luck.

[costax1654x] 01/8/2018 08:59

Regal Petroleum had the best RNS I have seen in months

[barony] 26/7/2018 08:48

Looks like a good announcement, especially with the emphasis on monetising our assets. Guess that Helium and a bit of HH is where we will keep investing.

[come on] 26/7/2018 07:42

Looks like they are getting good management to further this and hopefully realise the potential and hopefully the sp

[stonefold] 24/7/2018 15:52

Estimated profit example for investing £100 in each of the seven Horse Hill companies.

HH = Horse Hill = PEDL 137 and PEDL 246

This calculation uses figures and assumptions which may be incorrect.

It ignores:
Share price spread.
Brokers costs
Exchange rate cost
Tax
Any ordinary shares that these companies hold in each other.
Inter-company loans.
Debts and liabilities for Horse Hill or other projects the companies are involved in.
Fund raising that may occur.
The total number of shares in issue may change due to options, warrants or placings.
Some or all of the HHDL partners may sell early for a lower price.
The other projects/assets of the companies may change in value.
100% of an assets value is not reflected in the share price.
That TELL’s costs to the operator HHDL are carried by all the other partners in HHDL until production starts. Once production starts then TELL’s carry cost debt is gradually repaid to all the HHDL partners from TELL’s share of the production revenue.

Also the new valuation figure for Horse Hill I have plucked out of thin air, is based on assumptions:
That the EWT will be successful.
That the field moves quickly into production.
That the estimated recoverable reserves are as I expect.
That the £ $ exchange rate and price of oil does not change.

£ $ 1.3123
£ Aus$ 1.77154

Oil $71.03 bbl

1.
Ticker == Shares issued == Current share price pence

DOR == 50,420,109 == 9.596
SOLO == 471,953,594 == 2.495
ALBA == 2,848,614,934 == 0.595
PRIM == 2,796,619,343 == 0.167
GUN == 4,882,924,490 == 0.045
UKOG == 5,207,240,526 == 2.17
TELL == 240,520,000 == 594.376

2.
Ticker == % of Horse Hill that each company owns

DOR == 6.5
SOLO == 9.75
ALBA == 11.765
PRIM == 3.25
GUN == 1.3
UKOG == 32.435
TELL == 35.0

3.
100% of Horse Hill was last valued at £30,769,230 when SOLO bought 5% of HHDL for £1 million.

Ticker == Last value of Horse Hill that each company owns £.

DOR == 1,999,999.95
SOLO == 2,999,999.93
ALBA == 3,619,999.91
PRIM == 999,999,98
GUN == 399,999.99
UKOG == 9,979,999.75
TELL == 10,769,230.50

4.
For each company the mcap. is made up in part by the last HH value and by the other value of projects/assets that company holds.

Ticker == mcap £ == Other value £.

DOR == 4,838,313 == 2,838,313.71
SOLO == 11,775,251 == 8,775,251.23
ALBA == 16,949,258 == 13,329,258.95
PRIM == 4,670,354 == 3,670,354.33
GUN == 2,197,316 == 1,797,316.03
UKOG == 112,997,119 == 103,017,119.66
TELL == 1,429,593,155 == 1,418,823,924.70

5.
If you now buy £100 worth of shares in each of the seven HH companies, that £100 would consist of:

Ticker == last HH value £ == Other value £

DOR == 41.34 == 58.66
SOLO == 25.48 == 74.52
ALBA == 21.36 == 78.64
PRIM == 21.41 == 78.59
GUN == 18.20 == 81.80
UKOG == 8.83 == 91.17
TELL == 0.75 == 99.25

6.
For the sake of this calculation the other value remains unchanged.
Following a successful EWT, confirmation of commerciality and recoverable reserves, and Near to the start of production the new value of HH by my estimate would be £100 million.
This would give an increase figure for the value of the HH part of the £100 invested. From which a profit figure can be produced.

Ticker == new HH value £ == Other value £ == New Total £ == Profit £

DOR == 134.34 == 58.66 == 193.01 == 93.01
SOLO == 82.80 == 74.52 == 157.32 == 57.32
ALBA == 69.41 == 78.64 == 148.06 == 48.06
PRIM == 69.59 == 78.59 == 148.18 == 48.18
GUN == 59.16 == 81.80 == 140.96 == 40.96
UKOG == 28.70 == 91.17 == 119.87 == 19.87
TELL == 2.45 == 99.25 == 101.69 == 1.69

7.
This gives the implied new mcap. and new share price

Ticker == mcap. £ == New Share Price pence

DOR == 9,338,313.71 == 18.521
SOLO == 18,525,251.23 == 3.925
ALBA == 25,094,258.95 == 0.881
PRIM == 6,920,354.33 == 0.247
GUN == 3,097,316.03 == 0.063
UKOG == 135,452,119.66 == 2.601
TELL == 1,453,823,924.70 == 604.450

Only for entertainment - DYOR

[Edited to correct wrong figures: ]
(section 4 -other values £)
(section 7 -new mcap £)
(section 7 -new share price pence)

Also
Estimated recovery factor 30%
Which gives Estimated recoverable reserves 3,900,000 bbl. oil

[stonefold] 20/7/2018 15:32

List ordering companies as to which currently give the most Horse Hill value exposure for your money invested.
If you are only interested in owning as much HH as your money can buy then the higher in the list the better.

All other figures are the same as previous calculation
see post (18 Jul '18 - 20:45 - 10738 of 10746 Comparative dividends )

This is just Updated with share prices for 20-07-2018.

SOLO now just skips over ALBA into second place.

Only for fun - DYOR.

Ticker == Pence current share price == Dividend as % of current share price

DOR == 9.90 == 1.30219
SOLO == 2.44 == 0.84667
ALBA == 0.52 == 0.79425
GUN == 0.04 == 0.66558
PRIM == 0.18 == 0.64562
UKOG == 2.37 == 0.26282
TELL == 613.0 == 0.02374

DOR = ASX, TELL = nasdaq, all others are LSE

[mr ramper] 20/7/2018 12:26

check out COPL .

[1bonanza] 20/7/2018 11:54

All Weald oilers up today and Solo Red, shareholders value continued here.

[cperkin] 19/7/2018 21:34

10736 - thank you red rook :)

[cperkin] 19/7/2018 21:30

2nd half of this year is looking very healthy and about time, it's been a long enough wait!

Horse Hill, Ruvuma and a possible Helium-1 IPO and drill. I also think the Aminex deal has played right into the hands of the company, de-risked Ruvuma significantly and provided an initial valuation and it will be very interesting to see if the deeper Jurassic target @ C-1 finally reveals the oil that Tullow were searching for in the first place - the geology says "west and up-dip" exactly where the C-1 drill is.

Good luck and of course DYOR.

[1bonanza] 19/7/2018 18:35

Another 52wk low here today.

[ball deap] 19/7/2018 00:04

Just can’t wait for the scub tests and we are full steam ahead of positive. Realistically the scub tests make or breaks it.

[red rook] 18/7/2018 20:47

Barony, they would need to process it first. Natural-gas processing plants purify raw natural gas by removing common contaminants such as water, carbon dioxide (CO2) and hydrogen sulfide (H2S).

[stonefold] 18/7/2018 20:45

Comparative dividends

If I've got the figures correct then the answer to the question:

Which company would give the highest gross dividend per share as a percentage of the current share price , for each £1.0 million worth of value/income from Horse Hill, if a dividend were to be paid today?


I have ignored that PRIM have 2.99% of the shares in ALBA as it is too small to make a difference.

This ranking ignores any other assets, cash or debts that should be considered when comparing the value of the companies.

It is valid until the share price changes or the number of shares in issue changes.

It is just for entertainment DYOR.

====

Company == Ticker == % of HHDL == HHDL % of HH == T % of HH


Doriemus Plc == ASX - DOR == 10.0 == 6.5 == 0.0
Alba mineral res. plc == LSE - ALBA == 18.1 == 11.77 == 0.0
Solo Oil plc == LSE - SOLO == 15.0 == 9.75 == 0.0
Gunsynd plc == LSE - GUN == 2.0 == 1.30 == 0.0
Primorus invest plc == LSE - PRIM == 5.0 == 3.25 == 0.0
UK Oil Gas plc == LSE - UKOG == 49.9 == 32.44 == 0.0
Tellurian inc == nasdaq-TELL == 0.0 == 0.0 == 35.0

Total == / ==100.0 == 65.0 == 35.0

=======================

Ticker == £ Value for company per == shares == Pence Dividend per share
. == £1.0 million worth of HH == issued == per £1.0 million worth of HH


DOR == 65,000 == 50,420,109 == 0.12892
ALBA == 117,650 == 2,848,614,934 == 0.00413
SOLO == 97,500 == 471,953,954 == 0.02066
GUN == 13,000 == 4,882,924,490 == 0.00027
PRIM == 32,500 == 2,796,619,343 == 0.00116
UKOG == 324,350 == 5,207,240,526 == 0.00623
TELL == 350,000 == 240,520,000 == 0.14552

Total == 1,000,000 == / == /

=======================

Ticker == Pence current share price == Dividend as % of current share price

DOR == 8.77 == 1.46998
ALBA == 0.45 == 0.91779
SOLO == 2.60 == 0.79457
GUN == 0.04 == 0.66558
PRIM == 0.20 == 0.58106
UKOG == 2.50 == 0.24915
TELL == 595.75 == 0.02443


============================

[barony] 18/7/2018 20:29

Thanks red rook, but does that mean that we have gas to sell too? If so, how is it made “free gas” and how is it collected?

[red rook] 18/7/2018 20:24

Barony,

If you google 'oil and gas + solution gas' you will get a lot of hits! Schlumberger's Oilfield Glossary decribes solution gas as:

'Dissolved gas in wellbore or reservoir fluids. The gas will remain in solution until the pressure or temperature conditions change, at which time it may break out of solution to become free gas.'

[barony] 18/7/2018 20:03

Anybody explain what 30,000 cu ft of “solution gas” means?

[red rook] 18/7/2018 19:09

cperkin et al,

You guys should be congratulated for the great job in setting up the shareholder group. It's a pity that it takes extreme conditions before PIs use their collective power to hold their BOD to account. Hope it is not disbanded, but continues to keep the BOD in check. Also, good news about Neil Ritson's eventual departure. I also see that on the LSE BB the AEX PIs are organising their own shareholders' group. Possibly, you can give them some useful pointers.

Regarding AEX's Farmout of Ruvuma PSA (Tanzania) : I posted on the AEX BB as to why AEX and SOLO did not get together in pursuing a joint negotiation strategy for a farm-in. Much like the approach taken by PVR and LOGP. Was Ritson ever approached by AEX , was it discussed, and if not why not ? It would have made perfect sense ! Maybe you guys can get an answer.

[red rook] 18/7/2018 18:52

Whoppy, if you read the RNS carefully you will note that the daily flow rates quoted are 'implied' figures ! As yet its too early to determine if these 'implied' flow rates can be sustained over long periods. Even then, can these rates be maintained in full production conditions, and what the decline rates of the well will be. Thus the need for an Extended Flow Test, and why the market is not excited.

'Highest observed hourly rate equivalent to an implied daily rate of 352 barrels of oil per day ("bopd")'

-- Note the wording.. 'equivalent to an implied daily rate'. So they have flowed for a few hours. Chosen the hour when the peak flow rate was highest, and then calculated what that would produce IF it flowed at that rate for a whole day !

'Several periods of sustained natural flow (i.e. flow to surface without pumping) have also been observed over the past few days, with the most productive period producing an implied daily dry oil rate of 228 bopd over a two-hour period.'

-- Note the wording .. 'producing an implied daily dry oil rate of 228 bopd '. Again 'implied' !