Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[ntbb] 23/4/2020 08:56

I'm calling for 29p today

[ntbb] 23/4/2020 08:55

They sensed theres significant news coming

[mknight] 23/4/2020 08:55

Lowtrawler

I put shares buy trades on from 19.80 up until 21p . They all got jumped which tells me the mm.s hace a large buy order to fill . Once it filled things can change if it does not get filled the share price Will keep going up.

Hope this helps .

[lowtrawler] 23/4/2020 08:51

Keep looking at the volume. It's still very low which makes it easy for the MMs to suck you in whichever direction suits them. Without meaningful volume, there is no breakout.

[mknight] 23/4/2020 08:43

Ntbb

The 21.25 over 200k and 21.50 have gone seems like they were just blockers

Could see 23p today

[ntbb] 23/4/2020 08:39

Breakout!!!

[dozyduck] 23/4/2020 08:14

PS The big unknown, of course, is number of Solg shares in issue to divide its share of Alpala's cash flow between. Solg can't avoid issuing shares to explore its other prospects, nor, eventually for its share of Alpala's capex - all depending on the price at which it can issue - in turn depending on market conditions, market perceptions of Solg, etc etc. I can't see it being less than 5bn - but possibly a lot more. As for other funding, more streaming maybe (expensive) or farm-ins by someone else (even New, BHP) which will all take away part of Solg's return. So while NM might try to limit shareholder dilution, it will be at a cost which has the same effect. To sum up, too large a variety of options on the table for anyone to make accurate forecasats. I believe mine is in the tright ball-part. Ignore any broker puffing a NPV based 'target price'. And don't forget the webinar was called by RedCloud. Not by Solg. RC has a motive to ingratiate itself with Solg in order to help raise its next funding. Sound Cynical ? I've learned the hard way that to be cynical about mining shares and mining broker puffs is the way to survive !

[dozyduck] 23/4/2020 08:14

PS The big unknown, of course, is number of Solg shares in issue to divide its share of Alpala's cash flow between. Solg can't avoid issuing shares to explore its other prospects, nor, eventually for its share of Alpala's capex - all depending on the price at which it can issue - in turn depending on market conditions, market perceptions of Solg, etc etc. I can't see it being less than 5bn - but possibly a lot more. As for other funding, more streaming maybe (expensive) or farm-ins by someone else (even New, BHP) which will all take away part of Solg's return. So while NM might try to limit shareholder dilution, it will be at a cost which has the same effect. To sum up, too large a variety of options on the table for anyone to make accurate forecasats. I believe mine is in the tright ball-part. Ignore any broker puffing a NPV based 'target price'. And don't forget the webinar was called by RedCloud. Not by Solg. RC has a motive to ingratiate itself with Solg in order to help raise its next funding. Sound Cynical ? I've learned the hard way that to be cynical about mining shares and mining broker puffs is the way to survive !
Remember Mark Twain !

[ntbb] 22/4/2020 22:34

Thank you pob69, very interesting indeed!

[pob69] 22/4/2020 21:09

Replay of today's Red Cloud webinar $SOLG $SOLG.L $CGP #cascabel #ecuador. 5 minutes of intro by the CEO Nick Mather followed by 60 minutes of Q&A with the management team.

[orchestralis] 22/4/2020 20:39

Slowly slowly catchee monkey

[mam fach] 22/4/2020 20:32

Disappointing closing price.

[mknight] 22/4/2020 19:15

DD

Thats what comes of very little education and no love of school . At least my children wont have my defect buts thats another story.

So cutting it short around 50p as they said it would be less than 8%.

So 20p would seem cheap and sell at 50p unless other projects come up trumps .

Thanks for the info that will help most investors on here .

[mrturquoise] 22/4/2020 19:06

Tertiary Minerals - TYM
GOLD GOLD GOLD
Drill completed, under analysis, early movement started today - results are looking GOOOD. 4 Million Ounce Reserve!!!
Load it up! :)

[dozyduck] 22/4/2020 18:33

Its complicated and subject to lots of unknown details. Very roughly To work out the value the market will put at run up to first production (which is when it will peak) you need the net cash generated to shareholders and put a multiple on that. But that's far too complicated, so brokers will push the simplistic (But logically wrong) Npv. At present that looks like (at 8%) $4.2bn after $2.5bn capex - ie once financed and built the NPV at start of production is about $6.7bn. But that is before deducting the project loan cost's NPV, which for a 70% loan ($1.75bn) at 10% over 10 years will be about $2bn. So the NPV per share will be (what ? maybe 5bn Solg shares in issue then) will be $4.7bn - or around 95p per Solg share. But NPV based 'targets' historically have never been anywhere approached (even in the last 2100 mining boom) and the actual market price tends to be 1/2 to 1/3rd that (which equates to a 12% discount rate)
So my rough estimate of Alpala's value isn't much more than the 40p the shares reached last year. But that is only Alpala. The big hope for Solg has always been that its other prospects are just as valuable if not more. So in the very long run the hope is well over 100-150p. Alpala's real eventual value to the shares has been known to the professionals for years, which is why these recent news snippets aren't news to them at all. |The real disappointment is failure to move on with the other prospects. And noticeable le the cost of doing so was not mentioned at all today - and neither was that garbled bit about the $150m being available to drill the other prospects It never was so - so once lockdown is over, Solg will be raising funds to resume drilling which -NB- was budgeted in last Sept MD&A to cost around $60m pa.
These calcs are crude and in reality very time consuming needing much more info. But the method outlined is correcf.

Aplogies for typos. I'm using a laptop with tiny characters on screen I can hardly see

And I don't need any last chances from you Mr McKn ! One thing I notice is that you seem unable to read and hoist in written English.

[lefrene] 22/4/2020 17:30

Presumably Citi have been hired to vet takeover offers? A very large, rich, mine that can get to breakeven in four years, has to be mouth watering to some of the big hitters out there.

[mknight] 22/4/2020 17:05

So what do you value Alpala at DD.

Another straight question your very last chance from me .

Just a 20 p 30p or whatever .

[dozyduck] 22/4/2020 16:58

Finance is always at project level. And finance isn't 'conditional' on a FS. Its conditional on getting all the finance together at the same time. That won't be for 4-5 years yet, in the run up to financial close. As for the equity needed, if a project loan at 70% of capex (which would be pretty good for any project no matter how good , Solg would have to fund around $800m by issuing equity shares (Other forms of finance like streaming, smelter offtakes, or gold loans would be more expensive. And banks require company equity shareholders to bear the first tranche of risk) So that's twice the present market cap - and you can work out the permutations from there.

[lefrene] 22/4/2020 16:47

At $5 billion it's an outrageous bargain, at $10 billion it would still be excellent value to an acquirer. How badly do the big hitters want it? A buyer would presumably hive of the rich quick return sites, and then sell the remainder on to others and get their initial purchase price back. BHP and Newcrest know what this is worth, if they don't buy it then they would hold out for a decent price from other buyers. At least it won't go any lower from here onwards.

[ntbb] 22/4/2020 16:41

Nice close

[mknight] 22/4/2020 16:37

UT 20.50 up 2.5%

[lowtrawler] 22/4/2020 16:37

I think that a takeover offer is highly likely and, if there is one, there will be more than one. I wouldn't like to speculate on the timing though. I've expressed my view in the past that a successful bid is likely to be in the 60p to 120p range.