Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[dozyduck] 03/10/2020 14:24

I'm an engineer, not a geologist. But I can read geologists reports.

[lowtrawler] 03/10/2020 13:44

Apologies DD. Didn't realise you had a geology background.

[mknight] 03/10/2020 12:49

Lowtrawler

Thats the problem when it comes to working out the numbers we are betting blind ☹ trusting in those that may or maynot know what they are talking about.

Lets see what DD comes up with .

The only thing i am sure of is that if Porvenir is as good as they think it is the price is worth alot more than 35p
.

[pob69] 03/10/2020 11:24

Popular consultation will be held in December. Not direct relevence but interesting for mining sector sentiment SOLG $SOLG $SOLG.L #porvenir #cascabel #ecuador $CGP

Important that there is clarification that:
"...that the effects of the popular consultation, of achieving an affirmative statement from the electorate, "will only be towards the future."

[goodgrief] 03/10/2020 11:19

I'm guessing you're a dentist!?

[dozyduck] 03/10/2020 11:17

Look out for Angry Geologist's next post. He was dismissive of Alpala at first, but has Solg shares and is bound, soon, to comment on Porvenir !

[lowtrawler] 03/10/2020 11:08

Many thanks mwv1. I suspect you're the only poster with geology skills on our thread and so we will be highly dependent on you to keep us right as the drill results come through.

[mwv1] 03/10/2020 10:20

Porvenir
The last RNS a real blockbuster for three reasons:
1) It is at surface – mineralisation starts from 17m and carries on for at least another 500m. In terms of NPV for a project will be 30 to 50% higher as it costs less to build, you can prove it up and build it much quicker and costs less to mine.
2) It’s huge – Alpala is big (plan 50,000 t/d) but this could be bigger, figure 2 shows a 1.7km long North/South strike length and a 1km wide soil anomalies. Steve Garwin has always talked about porphyrys as like fingers sticking up from a hand and the molybdenum shows the edge of those fingers. Based on figure 2 we have two or three fingers in the defined strike plus maybe one at the Vino target. Put this together with 500m of mineralisation from surface level and an open cast mine and throughput of a mine at Porvenir could be 2 or 3 times that at Alpala and so NPV could be 2 to 3 times bigger.
3) Finally and the big one the grades here could be 2 to 3 times that of Alpala which would make the NPV 3 to 5 times higher. The first drill just grazed the edge of the core ‘The geology team interpret that the combined presence of visual epidote veining, molybdenum mineralisation and potassic K-feldspar-biotite-magnetite alteration indicate that PDH-20-001 hole is drilling across the upper periphery of the core of this porphyry copper-gold system. These are characteristic features of the upper periphery of the core of SolGold’s Alpala Deposit and many porphyry copper-gold systems globally’. But we still got grades (predicted from visuals) of 200m at over 1.5% Cu eq with a peak of 3.5% Cu eq, see Note 1. At Alpala the grades for the halo around the core where about 0.5% to 0.75%Cu eq, see Note 2, whereas the core is 442mT at 1.47%Cu eq. So about two to three times higher (fairly typical for a porphyry). That would suggest the core at Porvenir could be 3 to 4.5% Cu equivalent.

In summary the NPV for Porvenir could be from 3 to 12 times that of Alpala so we are not just talking about doubling the share price. Makes it obvious why the shares have responded over the last two days
How many times – well we will get a good idea in the next 4 weeks when we get assays on hole 1 and visuals on hole 2. Confirm a 200m segment at over 1.5% Cu for hole 1 and over 500m of visuals from hole 2 at similar or better grades and the share price will go bananas.

Note 1
Grades from visual inspection Solg have been doing for years – in one of their old presentations Ben Whistler bragged that they could get with 0.1% of the final assay based on a visual inspection before they sent it to the lab.
The info they gave in the RNS was this:
‘The dominant copper sulphide mineral observed to date is chalcopyrite, an important ore-forming copper sulphide mineral containing 34.5% copper. Chalcopyrite mineralisation has been observed from 15.9m to the current depth of 525.3m. Detailed core logging, to a depth of 491.0m, shows chalcopyrite percentages of up to an estimated 6.0 % by volume with associated porphyry style total quartz vein abundance of up to a measured 11.7 % by volume.’
‘The assay results (announced 7 May 2019) exhibit an approximate 1:1 copper (%) to gold (g/t) ratio as 147.8m @ 0.69% CuEq (0.43 g/t Au, 0.37% Cu) including, 82.63m @ 1.08% CuEq (0.71 g/t Au, 0.55% Cu). An approximate 1:1 copper to gold ratio is also expected from drill core assays.’
The pretty pictures on the RNS yesterday gave us some info on 200m of the core.

250-290m - visual estimate 3% Chalcopyrite - Expected analysis grade ~ 1.8% Cu eq
290-320m - visual estimate 2.5% Chalcopyrite - Expected analysis grade ~ 1.5% Cu eq
320-400m - visual Chalcopyrite in 1.5cm wide veins - Expected analysis grade more than 2% Cu eq
400-450m - visual estimate 2.5% Chalcopyrite - Expected analysis grade ~ 1.5% Cu eq
Maximum visible Chalcopyrite 6% - Expected analysis grade ~ 3.5% Cu eq

This gives 200m of drill at over 1.5% Cu eq on a drill that missed or just grazed the core of the porphyry.

Expected grade based on 1% Chalcopyrite = 0.345% Cu
and a 1%Cu to 1g/t gold ratio and 0.34g/t gold
at a 0.75 conversion factor (see page 22 of RNS) 0.345g/T gold = 0.26% Cu eq
So each 1% Chalcopyrite is equal to approx. 0.6% Cu eq

However the RNS did also say ‘Whilst mineralisation measured from PDH-20-001 is highly encouraging, the observations are of a preliminary nature. The visual mineralization observed has not yet been assayed, and the intensity of visual mineralisation should not be used to estimate grade or commercial viability at this stage. Assay results are expected to take not less than 3 weeks from submission.’

Note 2
RNS 10/11/2014 ‘Assays received for drill hole CSD-14-008 ("Hole 8"), 914.45m intersection from 396m to 1310.45m; Ø A bulk intersection of 914.45m grading 0.41% Cu and 0.44 g/t Au from 396m depth, which equates to 0.67% Cu Eq’

[lowtrawler] 03/10/2020 10:01

Count, our broker targets have always been far higher than the share price. There is nothing new regarding the Alpala grades.Over the next few weeks, there will be a steady stream of news. Personally, I expect a rise to 60p as the full significance of Porvenir is better understood and proven. Later this year, I am desperately hoping Rio Amarillo has a Porvenir style announcement. A third major find will take us over 100p and make a bidding war for SOLG inevitable.

[the count of monte_cristo] 03/10/2020 06:38

Just had another look at the September presentation, broker targets range from 70p to 113p. Next week will be very interesting, I expect the stock to move past 40p on the back of speculation that the company is sitting on multiple tier 1 and 2 assets and that this is now starting to be proven up with the recent news flow. The stock could go anywhere next week, could rocket on the back of increasing speculation that a major is not going to simply standby and let Solg progress these assets. A bidding war would be very nice, still perhaps early to see that but at some point I personally expect a bid to come in. Just look at those drill results in the company presentation, some of the best recorded drill results ever at Alpala.

[husbod] 02/10/2020 22:53

Wouldn't sell to a Chinese company on principle.Could be in for a very tricky week ahead with the Donald being taken into hospital. They waited for the US market to close before doing this and given the level of medical care available in the White House it must be quite serious. Can't imagine Trump agreeing to go voluntarily given his superman self image so it has to be an itu type situation. Hope he takes a turn for the better over the weekend. Markets just love uncertainty.

[bogotatrader] 02/10/2020 21:04

What a great 2 days to be invested here. My T+20 purchase is still not due for settlement. Certainly will not be closing but taking them up for the long haul here

[mknight] 02/10/2020 18:57

Mirabeau .

Pleased to help out ,

Trying to get my head around the value if porvenir is as good as it looks .

Should see 40p plus next week for
a few reasons .

1) ALot of traders would have sold

2) The share is cheaper at 35p than it was at 26p before Porvenir news .

3) We all know more news is coming , Porvenir and La Hueca drilling . PFS . Cornerstone and BHP off the leash at last .

Could be news any day in October .

[mirabeau] 02/10/2020 18:24

mk

You called it perfectly today fella

thanks

[pecker1] 02/10/2020 17:36

LT,

One can but dream! If Solg are able to prove up Porvenir within the next6-9 months, it could become clear that developing it before Alpala would be a commercial no-brainer: far cheaper to finance Porvenir and quicker to get cash flow. Alpala would then lend itself to a JV between solg and a major or two.

A necessary caveat is that we do not yet know what is the local situation at Porvenir regarding power supply, roads and so on. Could be that Cascabel is better served in this respect and the Ecuador government might have to get busy with improving communications, though they say they are effectively broke! Will be fascinating to see how this all pans out and, hopefully, very rewarding too.

[plentymorefish] 02/10/2020 16:36

Cod you repeat that.....my herring's not very good.....now, I definitely will get my coat!.....more of the same next week please......

[mknight] 02/10/2020 16:36

UT 34.80

Not bad

[greenelf] 02/10/2020 16:34

Another great day for Solg. Have a super weekend all!

[lowtrawler] 02/10/2020 16:23

Knock him of his Perch.....I'll get my coat.

[lefrene] 02/10/2020 16:17

Don't tell him Pike! :¬)

[lowtrawler] 02/10/2020 16:13

Mentally, I have Porvenir proven up and a new 60p trading level. It will take a few months but I'm confident. My aspirations now hinge on Rio Amarillo. IF ONLY, IF ONLY, IF ONLY.....I reckon that would move us over 100p and we would be able to watch the majors fighting over us. Yes, I'm greedy.

[dozyduck] 02/10/2020 16:11

Good G ! _ Greens and Lab Dims are what they are. Dim. Like Dim Children, they will never, can never, change. And like the 1970's / 80's Trades Unions (Remember them ?) will always shoot themselves in their three feet (' Bit like some posters here and on LSE. Not so many here admittedly)

[plentymorefish] 02/10/2020 16:06

Why would the army be interested?.....