Smo Gold Etc Discussion Threads

[wormhole1] 23/2/2015 21:16

Srsp-bargain share that may well just go in run Multiple gas projects are currently ramping up in Nigeria particularly in the western Niger Delta and Escravos areas, including the expansion of the Escravos Gas Plant ("EGP"), construction of the Escravos Gas-to-Liquids ("EGTL") facility, the Sonam Field development and the Agura Independent Power Plant.The projects will serve to eliminate routine flaring of natural gas associated with crude oil production. The project includes installation of 119km of subsea pipelines and modifications to the production platforms and is expected to be completed in 2016. Chevron and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation ("NNPC") are developing the EGTL facility, a $9.5bn 33,000bbl/d gas-to-liquids project designed to process 325mmcf/d of natural gas from the EGP expansion. There is also a power plant being built in Ondo State, namely the Omotosho Power Plant. It has a design capacity of 512.8 MW (ISO). It is an open cycle gas turbine power plant built to accommodate future conversion to combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) configurationIn addition the West African Gas Pipeline (WAGP) represents another export routefrom Nigeria's Escravos region area to the gas starved regions of Benin, Togo and Ghana, in which Sirius could potentially contribute to capacity.

[rainmaker] 09/2/2015 13:11

Excellent point, Spob.I think the IC has put some favourable spin on last year's disaster.

regards

[spob] 09/2/2015 08:34

Regarding the 2014 Bargain shares performance

Simon Thompson records minus 16% for the year

I strip out the first days gains when calculating the performance of this portfolio. This takes away the IC/ST effects. Doing so and taking a 100% loss on NBU gives an average loss for the full year of -33%.

Anyone buying at the end of the first day last year would be down 33%.

Anyone buying in the first hour last year would likely be down more than 33% due to the spike up and very wide spreads on that morning. The average gain at the end of the first day last year was +13%.

[spob] 06/2/2015 07:38

i will record the same prices for the last few minutes of trade today

and will then measure Simon's performance from that point on (last years first day bump up was 13% average )


i will update the performance of the 2014 BP soon

[spob] 06/2/2015 07:31

barg shares 2015 closing buy prices on 5 feb


offer prices based on those available/acheived in the last few minutes of trade on the 5th feb 2015


code, offer, mid,

mtvw 11200 10950

crs 151.75 150.375

hat 175 173

ptd 126 123.5

insc 15.64 15.5

rec 34.25 33.25

npt 8.15 8

arbb 1460 1430

abdp 171.5 169

sgi 282 281.5

[spob] 17/9/2014 09:16

I estimate investors buying all shares on the morning of 7th Feb 2014 would be down over 25% on average. This is because of the very heavy share price mark up in the first hour of trading for most of the shares on that particular morning. The prices listed above were not acheivable.

I have copies of all intraday charts for that first days trading.

[rainmaker] 15/9/2014 16:24

Agreed........when it first appeared,it had a distinct 2008 whiff about it ie mediocre, unproven and overpriced Companies when the portfolio collapsed 60% but this sort of drop should never happen to a Value portfolio! If I remember correctly there were also very few genuine bargains in this years portfolio. I've mentioned it before a few times but I thoroughly disapprove of the IC(and they're also doing the investing public an incredible disservice and giving Value Investing a bad name by stretching the qualifying criteria from 1 to as little as 0.25 ie market cap of up to 4 times net working capital. Stockmarket Value Investing has always been about safety of principle through employing a substantial margin of safety in your purchase ie its always about a "belt and braces" or "safety first" approach ie look down first.

In my long experience these semi bargains almost invariably become full bargains so if you buy at Company with a bargain ratio of 0.25 and it then becomes a full bargain you're showing a paper loss of 75%-this is definitely not Value Investing!It also might seen very obvious statement to make but the vast majority of the selections of the IC aren't bargains then how can they call it a "Bargain Portfolio" Research has shown that very little value is added through stock selection.Its the technique of the approach that delivers the high returns. They also select bio techs and generally unproven businesses which is another big negative but they don't learn.What did Buffett say about you only discover who's been swimming naked when the tide goes out. Chickens coming home to roost, I think.

Mind you with some 13 out of 15 years of positive gains, it amply demonstrates the power of Value Investing even when the practioners aren't even doing it properly.

regards

[spob] 15/9/2014 15:51

I have not run the numbers

Looks underwater overall glancing at the charts above

Major lack of judgement form Simon in this particular year

I mean if there are few true bargain shares available don't just knock up a selection of 12 stocks just for the sake of it

As I said above, I was not impressed back in February and steered well clear of the vast majority of his selections

[rainmaker] 15/9/2014 15:42

Hi Spob, do you have the latest performance figure for the IC Bargain portfolio? As of friday, I'm up 28.14% for the year but I'm hopeful that my portfolio will end the year much higher!Back to my research, catch you later.

tia

best wishes

[spob] 15/9/2014 15:36

Simon advises dumping NBU

now approx 24p


I would also avoid all other Chinese AIM stocks

Including the other two in this years so called Bargain Portfolio - CAMK and FTO

[spob] 10/2/2014 08:09

Taken a quick 15% on NBU

Just not comfortable holding Chinese stocks. It looks to good to be true TBH. Why wouldn't another Chinese company snap these up, if they were/are genuinely that cheap ? There is a lot of corruption in China and nobody in China will ever snitch. That's the culture over there. Stick together like glue.

It may do very well, but there are lots of other bargain shares to choose from.

Good luck to those willing to take the risk on NBU and CAMK for that matter. Hope you do well, they're just not for me.

[spob] 07/2/2014 18:05

Of the new 2014 portfolio, I already held a few of them


Just bought one new stock today, NBU

Bit weary of buying chinese, but there is the Simon Thompson effect to take into consideration.


Ruled out the others because they are not bargains or I think they have too much debt. Also Simon is not going to move large caps like BDEV and TW. Then there is the one oil stock, so that gets ignored automatically :)

So that just leaves me with NBU,PVCS, and REC from the 2014 BP

Just sold BMY recently at 176p and it's no longer a bargain at the moment.

[spob] 07/2/2014 08:51

2014 IC Bargain portfolio added above


if you want further details regarding Simon's comments, SUBSCRIBE

or go out in the rain and buy the magazine :)

[ben value] 06/2/2014 13:21

Hi spob

Quite a good performance for Simon Thompson



I reckon he will revisit MAE in his selection tomorrow.

regards

[spob] 02/1/2014 10:27

I await the next IC Bargain portfolio in 5 weeks time with interest

It should be published online on 7th Feb at 7am


I feel Simon has a difficult task to pull a new portfolio of stocks out of the hat

By that - I mean, stocks that he hasn't covered previously

Perhaps he will revisit some stocks which he had covered in previous years

[spob] 31/5/2013 06:08

http://www.-.co.uk/content/benjamin-grahams-last-will-10-useful-rules-for-stock-selection-64001/


http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=ben%20graham's%20last%20will%20and%20testament&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CD8QFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fweeko.fr%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F11%2FThorp-2010-Grahams-last-will-testament.pdf&ei=r0qoUbjMLoGY1AXN_YHgCA&usg=AFQjCNEXi6LZgPAe09JeJtmwhi3O4HrfXg&bvm=bv.47244034,d.d2k&cad=rja

[birdsedgeuk] 23/3/2013 17:54

Seen www.traderdiary.co.ukSigned up to weekly email service. see how it does. Find it an entertaining read No bs.

[m1tu] 23/3/2013 17:15

Baobab resources mentioned in dailymail

[spob] 01/3/2013 11:13

Mr. Market

"Imagine that in some private business you own a small share that cost you $1,000. One of your partners, named Mr Market, is very obliging indeed. Every day he tells you what he thinks your interest is worth and furthermore offers to either buy you out or to sell you an additional interest on that basis. Sometimes his idea of value appears plausible and justified by business developments and prospects as you know them. Often, on the other hand, Mr Market lets his enthusiasm or his fears run away with him, and the value he proposes seems to you a little short of silly.

If you are a prudent investor or a sensible businessman, will you let Mr Market's daily communication determine your view of the value of a $1,000 interest in the enterprise? Only in case you agree with him, or in case you want to trade with him. You may be happy to sell out to him when he quotes you a ridiculously high price, and equally happy to buy from him when his price is low. But the rest of the time you will be wiser to form your own ideas of the value of your holdings, based on full reports from the company about its operations and financial position.

The true investor is in that very position when he owns a listed common stock. He can take advantage of the daily market price or leave it alone, as dictated by his own judgment and inclination. He must take cognizance of important price movements, for otherwise his judgment will have nothing to work on. Conceivably they may give him a warning signal which he will do well to heed - this in plain English means that he is to sell his shares because the price has gone down, foreboding worse things to come. In our view, such signals are misleading at least as often as they are helpful. Basically, price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal. At other times he will do better if he forgets about the stock market and pays attention to his dividend returns and to the operating results of his companies."

Source: This parable is contained in chapter 8 of Benjamin Graham's Intelligent Investor (ISBN 0060555661) which deserves a spot on every investor's bookshelf. Warren Buffett specifically draws the readers attention to this chapter.