Smith & Nephew Share Discussion Threads

[piano man] 25/2/2021 13:56

With defensive qualities 30% in 2 years will do me.

[spoole5] 23/2/2021 16:37

Unlikely to take 2 years

[essentialinvestor] 23/2/2021 16:31

My Dad uses professional data, will check with him but he's not available atm. To make USD1.85, that's an 80% increase on FY 2019, I can't square that number with anything I've looked at. The 2019 FY is pre Covid-19 earnings.

[gclark] 23/2/2021 16:24

My source gives a consensus forecast PE of US$1.85, approx £1.30, so around 11 times at £14.

[essentialinvestor] 23/2/2021 16:23

That's peak pre Covid-19 earnings. You are looking at a 2 year recovery to get back to that?.

[spoole5] 23/2/2021 16:21

Just under 20 not overly expensive given the significant growth opportunities

[essentialinvestor] 23/2/2021 16:17

Well I'm looking at the adjusted EPS for 2019 at $1.02 (which allows for any (exceptionals). year ending 31/12/2019 - pre Covid-19 hitting. On current FX that gives a PE of just under 20 X. How are you getting 10 X earnings.

[gclark] 23/2/2021 16:11

I see it on a forward forecast PE for 2021 of 10, at a share price of £14, which is not steep. xxx://money.cnn.com/quote/forecast/forecast.html?symb=SNN It seems like a decent source of information but we are all limited by our information source!

[essentialinvestor] 23/2/2021 13:53

spoole, I've looked at FY 2018 EPS, which was the recent peak and flattered by a legal settlement and still get what appears a pricy multiple. As SN report in USD, you need to convert earnings in to GBP to calculate.

[spoole5] 23/2/2021 13:48

I don't think anyone can accurately predict any earnings for companies hit by covid.

[essentialinvestor] 23/2/2021 13:30

* 24 X FY 2022 earnings estimates, I've not got FY 2023 numbers.

[essentialinvestor] 23/2/2021 13:28

spoole, have you looked at '22, '23 estimates?. SN still looks on a steep multiple if I'm reading those correctly.

[spoole5] 23/2/2021 08:30

Amazing how the market is pricing in a recovery for airlines and pubs but not for this

[1nf3rn0] 22/2/2021 11:08

On the flip side of that, many people have taken up jogging outdoors, often with poor technique as they haven't done such exercise for years, and on mostly uneven ground / pavements, which is bound to lead to knee problems. Possibly at the moment offset by a decrease from other amateur sports, but these will return from April.I expect volume, volume trend and demographic mix will be back in line with pre-covid next year. Even with some level of covid deaths each winter, life expectancy should continue to increase.

[pugugly] 22/2/2021 10:46

Another take - Many of the elective surgery patients - Hips - knees etc are over 60 and the over 60's are most at risk of fatal outcome if they get infected by the virus - also a horribly high percentage of Covid infections are hospital acquired so potentially 3 red flags * Some possible customers removed from the waiting lists (deceased from Covid) * Some more customers deceased of old age as elective surgery postponed * Some more customers decide to postpone operation due to risk of acquiring Covid while in hospital PLUS, the unquantifiable risk of mutated virus being unable to be defeated by current vaccines and thus further postponing the start date for ramping up the number of elective operations to or above previous levels.

[suetballs] 22/2/2021 10:32

4 brokers cut tp this am. Lowest £14.23 highest £19.85. Berenberg the highest still has sn. as a buy. Suet

[suetballs] 22/2/2021 10:16

Yep - post Brexit and covid I am expecting a mini boom for the ftse. sn.'s prospects look very encouraging. Suet

[gclark] 22/2/2021 09:10

Well it is difficult to understand this continued drop as the prospects seem good in the near future - with us coming out of lockdown gradually and a much bigger emphasis on elective surgeries which have been delayed. All I can think now is that a large institution is selling, perhaps for other reasons than their view on SN.? Or may be, somebody in their company doesn't like the future prospects of SN. But I beg to differ with them - we shall see who is right!

[essentialinvestor] 18/2/2021 17:49

Added a few late afternoon, hopefully the morning low may be available again.

[spoole5] 18/2/2021 17:44

Lots of pent up demand coming, may be next year though

[ny boy] 18/2/2021 17:25

Treading water for ages, can’t see any bid coming until the pandemic is well and truly over.

[spoole5] 18/2/2021 12:53

Well that was a nice tree shake this morning. Weak holders flushed out

[gclark] 18/2/2021 11:18

spoole5 - my thoughts entirely. I try to think who sells when you are told the obvious - may be it is just the conspiracy theorists who were walking around the hospitals saying there was no covid? It has been the opportunity to buy for me.

[bigbertie] 18/2/2021 11:14

the longer term outlook is great, with recovery in elective surgery plus recent acquisitions and new innovative procedures. At around 1,500p a bid cannot be ruled out [but don't get too excited - a bid for SN has been anticipated for years]. All just IMHO - the future is uncertain. Good luck all

[suetballs] 18/2/2021 09:27

12toes - in my defence I did say "fairly". I'm with spoole on this - and a maintained dividend to help short term. Suet