Slf Realisation Share Discussion Threads

[chucko1] 24/12/2024 10:16

... and finally ... bought a few more of each before the shop shutters for good. 1.1p on the Ords relative to a circa 3p NAV is just a damned good risk/reward, no matter the fact that the large remaining loan is such a basket case. I think the Cs are slightly better even though the discount is a mere 50% (1.5p vs. 3p).

It's fair to say the risks are aligned with those of management.

[cousinit] 20/12/2024 12:45

The cash reserve does help, but mainly if there is a quick resolution or if the glass loan does work out to a degree. He may like a gamble - or though with his fees the outcomes are a bit less binary than for the rest of us!

The counter could be that if the glass loan has managed to navigate everything (but with hefty concessions) that's been chucked at it so far, the underlying company may be a little more resilient than it sounds. But it may be a case of pretend/extend just delaying the inevitable. So little detail in the reports to discern.

[chucko1] 20/12/2024 12:20

It's interesting in that he bought many more Ords than Cs. On the Cs, with just the one outstanding material loan, although that is amortising at pace, he will likely know precisely what is coming back - whenever that is. Whereas he cannot surely have confidence in the glass loan as that is strike, weather and French economy-dependent - a truly noxious mix.

But I have suspected for a while that they are keeping an overly generous cash reserve which, for our purposes, derisks our investment to some degree.

[cousinit] 20/12/2024 11:57

I think Brett took out quite a few of the loose holders early on, but a jittery market, into year end, who knows?

[chucko1] 20/12/2024 11:54

Yes, Miller buying such. large amounts of Ords was persuasive in me buying some, as I do not really like binary outcomes.

The Cs has a much smoother glide path.

[chucko1] 20/12/2024 11:52

I have been waiting a while as I felt that there was a chance that there might be a dump of these shares (both classes) prior to 27/12 delisting.

Additionally, given the rather healthy size I used to own, motivation has been restricted as I would not want so many to be tied up for an unknown period! But I have a few as it would be impolite not to!

[cousinit] 20/12/2024 11:17

Good spot Chucko. I'd managed to pick some up last week but not much volume recently. So joined in today as well.

Looks like you can have as many ords as you want... Does feel the outcome there is somewhat binary. Worst outcome would be for the glass loan to fully collapse in 2 years and costs to rack up in mesntime for limited benefit.

But as we've noted, Brett Miller been a big buyer of both, and at prices much closer to today for the ords than the Cs.

[chucko1] 20/12/2024 10:58

I already have a few of those. Bought 100k SLFX myself! Less of a discount, but less mist.

[2wild] 20/12/2024 10:43

Suspect it will remain opaque for quite a long time. Although not my base case, there is a potential treble return from here.

[cousinit] 20/12/2024 09:17

I would be very appreciative if the mist would clear on the glass loan ;)

[2wild] 20/12/2024 09:03

Picked up 100,000 ords at 1.14p this morning, circa 70% discount to nav. Ahead of next week's demisting.

[chucko1] 19/11/2024 11:28

Although Miller's consultancy fees run to £300k per annum (reasonable, in my view), spread over both SLFR and X it is reasonably tolerable - say for 18 months. One hopes the other costs relating to listing and associated regulation will take a sizeable cut. In any event, Miller's fees aside, at least one can be confident that all interests are pretty well aligned.

Well, once the lights go out on December 27th, we will see what the hibernation brings forth.

[cousinit] 19/11/2024 08:55

Patience is obviously part of the answer!

Miller has been able to buy at low levels previously. I can only presume that he has indicated to the broker he is a buyer in size at a particular level and they have been happy to facilitate that (with no one taking much of a cut) when a motivated seller approaches them.

The (indicated) spread at times is so wide you could fit a bus through it but occasionally it does seem to close up.

On IG I have been able to buy at near the bid, but often with lots of small fills and the occasional chunkier amount. So far I have tested selling a few but a bit like Hotel California, that seems tricky to do!

The last capital return seemed a bit miserly. Realise costs are very high now versus remaining NAV, but the amount retained seemed conservative.

[chucko1] 18/11/2024 19:42

CousinIT, it's a bit hit and miss, but I persevere and leave orders if I cannot transact there and then. Why some get filled and some do not is something I am not an expert in. But it's the same with other shares, so it is not as though HL are especially "bad" re. SLFR/X.

I was trying to lift the 1.25 offer in 200k, but that did not occur. No clue why. How Miller is getting all his fills at just over 1 (or even under) is a mystery to me. Someone who knows the intricacies of the LSE might be able to add to the body of knowledge!

[cousinit] 18/11/2024 14:49

Chucko - if you don't mind me asking, how do you find HL in this regard? A lot of the time I can obtain neither a bid nor an offer (even in small size) through HL. Do you leave an order with them? I have had some luck with 'fill or kill' orders but there seems no consistency when they are rejected these days in having any feedback along the lines of 'the current offer is Xk at Yp'.

I have now opened accounts away from HL to hopefully be able to cover the increasing number of gaps in their service (eg KIDs on GABI).

[chucko1] 18/11/2024 11:34

Yes, been buying through HL for both Ords and Cs.

Brett Miller is happily buying (on the bid side from institutions, very likely) millions and millions. This suggests there will be ample cash to fully liquidate this at a good proportion of the remaining NAV. Currently NAV on Cs is around 3p, so buying at 1.4p or so (1.05p for Miller) has ample margin of safety considering the new information that he is content to buy what is now approaching 20mn combined. Not quite SUPR level of Director buys (their holdings must be worth £3mn+ combined, even at the current low SP), but he never had a senior position at Goldman Sachs.

[wilwak] 18/11/2024 10:51

Are any brokers still allowing buys on these?

[wilwak] 18/11/2024 10:47

Well Brett Miller is certainly mopping up a lot of shares just prior to delisting. He must see a nice recovery coming on the final few investments.

Another 2m shares bought today at 1.05p.

[2wild] 18/7/2024 07:33

Totally missed yesterday's announcement. Just seen SLFx as my largest % game. Suppose we will get cash return announcement for both classes soon. Also during market hours.

[chucko1] 17/7/2024 14:19

I bought more, but could have got them cheaper if I had not been likewise distracted.

Even at 4p it's an OK buy (I got them around 3.5p) but 3.1p was there for the swifter of foot.

[cousinit] 17/7/2024 14:12

Agree.

Although seems to be 4p on the offer now.

Was out and about at the wrong time! Clearly being on an errand buying plants should be outside market hours...

Had been nibbling away at both share classes outside of my ISAs given the likely delisting.

[chucko1] 17/7/2024 14:04

At 3.5p (to buy) if they repay 3p capital in a month, then the ex value of the share is 0.5p, but still with about 2p of NAV (albeit it in three loans, of which one dominates). 75% discount, but with the risk of de-listing and higher costs. But at a fraction of the capital at risk, as 100% of the prior carrying value (3pps) gets repaid.

Just added more!!

[chucko1] 17/7/2024 13:51

Just landed!! Share is now very, very cheap again.

Paid full amount.

[spectoacc] 27/6/2024 06:41

Perhaps waiting for it to land.