Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[11_percent] 19/5/2017 15:56

Yep, the PIs have bought the shares, while IIs have sold.

[beeezzz] 19/5/2017 15:52

4m trade whether one or many by broker...

[casapinos] 19/5/2017 15:46

Hi PPVN (you know what this post will contain don't you!)
first thanks for your contribution above , OK now down to my real purpose in racking your brain.
In my ignorance am i right to assume that those vols of shares you quote are the nominee accounts of said businesses -ie PI's have bought and hold 450 mill +( I assume that other nominee account offerers will show a similar pattern. What is your conjecture of what %age the three you mention might be of the market?
Is it safe to assume that of the >1 bill + of shares traded in the last six weeks,a substantial portion(ex "noise") are ex-warrants and most(?) are being absorbed by PI's?
The capacity of the market to absorb the convi shares seems to be clearly greater than you anticipated and your August suggestion for full absorption looks conservative.We both know this share has attracted enormous PI interest and that seems to be working to push the MC up briskly. It also seems reasonable to assume that the timing and the interest rate for debt will be positively affected by this price action, while i'm not sure that access to cash has a direct bearing on project timescales(any tunnel borers know whether another TBM would be useful?)it can only be good news that financing will come from a strong base. Thanks again for posting and more so because of the informed(and positive) nature of your input.

[beeezzz] 19/5/2017 15:30

I noticed they have pushed the delivery date out to end of 2021 which means sometime in 2022 nothing goes to schedule especially in the mining industry.

I imagine they reduced the access shafts for the transport tunnel; by putting two TBM in one shaft sending them in opposite directions.

[spirito] 19/5/2017 15:10

defo red! lol

[hazl] 19/5/2017 14:59

Thanks as ever for a very considered post PPVN.
It makes sense and I hope you're right..

[ppvn] 19/5/2017 14:52

Hello All. Since its Friday and I’ve found a couple of minutes I thought I’d share a few thoughts on where we go from here as well as why. As ever, just my tuppence worth and take it or leave it. I’m pleased to see that we are testing new (old) ground since the capital increase. Always a good thing for a company to be reaching new highs in terms of market cap, which we have done today. Anyway. Some thoughts I took from the week. I was frankly stunned to see that since their last respective filings at the beginning of March, HL have seen an increase of 357mm shares, Barclays 54mm, TD Invest 50mm. I had underestimated the level of investment from (I assume) private individuals parking some of their pension pots with Sirius. As I’ve previously mentioned, selling in the background continues from our loan note investors, though no new filings have been made on that front since late April – we’ll see new ones in due course. I have previously written that I thought we’d get to 28-30p before dropping back down. I have to say; I’m less confident now that the drop will happen. I think this particular uptick might have a little more juice in it, and rather than a pronounced pullback I envisage more stability rather than pullback, frankly. That’s because of the sheer number of shares that have been bought and tucked away – I think that it will continue to be the case. Where else can you park cash in a countercyclical with so much potential upside? If anything should be taken from this weeks blip in the wider equity markets, it’s that when a company is valued not on its earnings but on its future revenues, broader market movements will have limited impact. Moving on, I’ve given a little more thought to the Stage 2 financing. I’m moving beyond evidence here (read: more conjecture) but should our shareprice to continue to be so strong with buying rather than churn being the driver, I have a sneaking suspicion that if debt financing can be secured it will be announced prior to H2 2018. My reasons for this suspicion is that should our board be successful in securing debt finance, it will be transformational for our shareprice. Aspects of an accelerated MTS program were hinted at in the March update (“accelerate components of the shaft and tunnel spend to further de-risk the implementation of the construction project”) – and for this it would be nice to have firm commitments of debt finance. It’s also interesting to note that options to acquire parts of the MHF were exercised and that site procurement should be complete by March 2018. To me at least, that suggests a decent possibility that aspects of this project are being accelerated. All that being said, I don’t believe that Stage 2 finance will be announced prior to the sale and conversion of our convertible loan notes, for reasons previously discussed.

[hazl] 19/5/2017 14:51

john you got your bus yet??

[hazl] 19/5/2017 14:49

Everybody provides something.........

it's just that you can't see it.))

[tidy 2] 19/5/2017 14:41

Gap filled.

[richard26] 19/5/2017 14:41

end of next year £1....

[hazl] 19/5/2017 14:27

Ha your posts!
You predicted 18p one day and 27p the next from memory.

I suppose you were right about one of them.

[hazl] 19/5/2017 14:06

what your face?

[richard26] 19/5/2017 13:57

Be red at finish...

[carla1] 19/5/2017 13:50

Goose are your team messing on ??

[hazl] 19/5/2017 13:49

Well it's been a good recovery so far,and on a lot more people's watchlists I'm sure.

Patience seems the order of the game.

[spirito] 19/5/2017 13:38

it's in a sipp so tax free until access

[gilscottheron] 19/5/2017 12:35

I was wrong sorry......just saw what you were replying to.

[gilscottheron] 19/5/2017 12:34

Spirito.......you've got your maths wrong. 10p dividend with 740k shares. 74k

[carla1] 19/5/2017 12:27

Goose... where now ??

[beeezzz] 19/5/2017 12:07

NMRN.....

Thanks forgot about that, still well within a free cash flow of between £2 - £4bn

[not my real name] 19/5/2017 12:02

Hi beeeezzz,

Slight miscalculation. By the time we are paying dividends all the convertible bonds will be converted adding another 1.2bn shares to the existing shares so ballpark 5.4 billion.

So around £540m.

NMRN