Sinclair Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[eggbaconandbubble] 19/10/2013 12:35

An opera by Puccini!!!!!! ;-D

An investment fund. see - toscafund.com

Tosca have a large chunk of Sinclair. Can't rememmber how much but they are continually adding to it, which suggests something is on the cards.
Hence, should one get back in, top up, or whatever?

[scargs] 19/10/2013 11:26

Can anybody please explain who is Tosca to me.

Scargs

[eggbaconandbubble] 18/10/2013 17:41

Red, you're right of course re insider allegations. It is clearly too obvious. It will be very interesting to see if any RNS comes out of today's transactions.

[red ninja] 18/10/2013 16:24

Mmm, if it is Tosca buying maybe they will be prepared to facilitate a trade sale for a quick tasty profit at 40 - 45p bearing in mind that the earlier Daily Mail article suggested a cheeky sounding out of acquisition of SPH at 35p was rejected.

Tosca appears to have a good reputation so they would probably want to keep the right side of insider allegations.

[eggbaconandbubble] 18/10/2013 16:13

Give or take a bob or two that's a squillion quid. Something surely is going on/going to happen! Interesting to see if there will be an RNS re purchase or sale of shares in the next day or two, barring the week-end.
If Tosca have just topped up.....then something happens soon and the price flies up....surely the accusations of insider knowledge/trading must be put forward!

[red ninja] 18/10/2013 13:52

Two big trades today at 1.5 million and 1.6 million and the SELL price currently at 31p on iii.

[red ninja] 17/10/2013 18:16

Egg,

You are right the Maelor takeover doesn't appear to have been an unqualified success.

As someone said maybe they are clearing the decks for a trade sale ...

[eggbaconandbubble] 16/10/2013 12:54

Just started to look at the last results 19th Sept. in some more depth which I hope to do more thoroughly later, however a quick squint came up with the following which appears to account for the thumping great loss they incurred year to June 13 and may account for what Alan Tittymarsh was alluding to on iii.BB.
Anyone got any comments?
At first glance it looks like the IS Pharma takeover/merger came up with some nasties!


"Impairment charges of GBP15,151,000 are made up of GBP11,474,000 impairment to the product rights and GBP3,677,000 impairments to goodwill following a reappraisal of the value of the remaining assets acquired with the IS Pharma acquisition in May 2011. New entrants in the market have resulted in declining sales and volumes and a reduction in average prices primarily affecting the Variquel and Cryogesic trademarks. The Directors have re-assessed forecast sales and gross margins and as a result of the reduced cash flows, have recorded these non-cash impairments."

[red ninja] 16/10/2013 11:41

Copy of tip post from iii

Buy Sinclair IS Pharma @ 30p
Today (2013-10-15 14:52:22)Print this Article
by James Faulkner & Richard Gill

Sinclair IS Pharma is a specialty pharmaceuticals firm focused primarily on dermatology and woundcare which has been undergoing some interesting changes of late....

During recent years Sinclair has been streamlined through the disposal of some non-core offerings. Operating expenses have been refocused on sales and marketing (+69% over 3 years), with central costs substantially reduced as a proportion (an increase of only 8% over 3 years)....

Following these changes the firm has become sustainably profitable at the EBITDA level. The group is now also seeing the strong cash generation that is a feature of other specialty pharma businesses such as Alliance Pharma (APH), with net debt at 30th June reduced to £6.9 million due to a strong improvement in operating cash flow....

The firm recently exited all in-house manufacturing, which suggests a more capital-light business model going forward. Brokers expect 30%+ CAGR for earnings and EBITDA between 2013-15, with the potential for deal flow to deliver earnings upgrades...

We believe the focus on several larger, globally recognised brand names positions the firm well for a potential takeover approach, under which scenario Sinclair could command a price tag of up to 5x EV/sales based on industry norms. Our initial one-year price target of 45p offers upside of 50% and is based on a conservative EV/sales multiple of 3x. "BUY", at 30p.

THE BUSINESS

Sinclair IS Pharma is an international specialty pharmaceutical company centred on dermatology (the skin and its diseases), particularly Aesthetics, Wound care, and Skin care. The company has a direct sales and marketing presence in the top five European markets and a rapidly growing International division concentrated on the Emerging Markets through long-term multi-product, multi-country, sales, marketing and distribution deals with key strategic partners.

The portfolio can be broadly summarised into Growth Products: (Top tier: Kelo-Cote, Sculptra; Second Tier: Atopiclair, Sebclair, Papulex); Cash Cow (FLAMMA brand, Aloclair) and Non-Core (Aloxi, Variquel, oral care products). The latter products are likely to be disposed of should the firm find a buyer at the right price, with the proceeds likely to be reinvested in products that are better suited to the firm's core dermatology focus.

The Sinclair story only really started to become interesting after the firm acquired the rights to three dermal filler brands in Western Europe, which joined Kelo-cote in the aesthetic market. Technically speaking Sinclair acquired two products but they are sold under three different brand names. Poly-L-lactic acid is a synthetic biodegradable polymer and is supplied as an injectable intradermal implant. Whilst acting as a physical filler, it also appears to promote the growth of new collagen, restoring elasticity to the skin and resulting in a lift effect. It is available as New-Fill on prescription (and reimbursed) for the correction of facial lipodystrophy in patients with HIV – lipodystrophy (the loss of fat) is an effect associated with HIV and is also a side effect of certain treatments. The same product is also available as Sculptra for use in general aesthetic procedures. Meanwhile, Succeev is an injectable for use as a dermal filler and also targets the aesthetic market. Given that the European Dermal filler market is expected to grow by 8% compound to $230 million by 2017, there is a significant opportunity for Sinclair in this market. Sculptra is already a growing global brand, but has just 3% market share in Europe and only 7% in its biggest market the UK.



A compelling strategy that should result in a more highly valued group...

Upon his arrival in 2009, CEO Chris Spooner formulated a new strategy for Sinclair which is now being delivered upon. The key priorities

[dealit] 15/10/2013 17:15

We can only wait and see, up 4% today though through 30p good to see.

[red ninja] 15/10/2013 16:27

Egg,

Someone is still buying, Tosca, maybe.

If it carries on like this, the rumours of a buy out will resurface ...

PS: See there is a buy tip on iii which mentions the possibility of takeover.

[eggbaconandbubble] 12/10/2013 11:23

Alan Tittymarsh's comment on iii - Thursday very pertinent.
I'm watching but not convinced of the story yet. My hunch is that they really can't make this work despite all their 'expertise'. Might have to sell or merge to save face!
AGM must be coming up soon.....Can I muster the energy???

[tackems] 12/10/2013 10:05

....yet again!

[tackems] 10/10/2013 13:32

Nice to see another small tick up.

[eggbaconandbubble] 27/9/2013 17:21

You're right, but how many times have people said 'I should have taken their offer'. That said usually bad negociating form to accept a first offer as it can offend.

[hazelton] 26/9/2013 06:50

I thought that there was some sort of offer a while ago , it was rejected.

[eggbaconandbubble] 25/9/2013 18:56

Very drole!
I reckon Tosca are either barking mad or know something the market doesn't!!!!
As I've said before - I'm not convinced. An share price of 38 implies a PBT of around £15m.
With turnover increasing at about 8% year on year and net debt of about £7m. How the hell are they going to achieve that in the forseeable future.
Their market cap at 29p is about £115m!
Virtually all their assets are intangibles.
Seem to me like a company run by a bunch of ex-city guys who have read a book on running a business. Maybe a bit harsh but we shall see.
Tosca must have a sniff of a takeover.
But I ain't putting my money on it.

[red ninja] 25/9/2013 18:16

Mmm wait for it to fossilise and then I'm sure you could.

Price range seems to have been 29-29.5 or 29-29.25 according to iii
for last few weeks.

Not much action, with share price staying fairly steady, maybe Tosca are still
accumulating ?

[red ninja] 24/9/2013 20:39

Canaccord Genuity maintained its "buy" stance on pharmaceutical company Sinclair Is Pharma (SPH) with a target price of 38p. Although the company is trading on a reasonably high profit multiple, the broker sees good value at the current share price. Canaccord expects earnings growth to come as the company leverages its aesthetics sales and marketing infrastructure and expects revenue growth to substantially outpace additional marketing spend. The shares were down by 0.25p at 29.25p.

[red ninja] 20/9/2013 15:46

Copied from post on iii :-

Sinclair IS Pharma was issued a 'buy' rating by Jefferies International after reporting a jump in pre-tax profit for the full year 2013.

Adjusted profit before tax and exceptional items soared 69% to £4.3m as sales rose 7.7% to £55.4m, driven by aesthetic non-surgical facelift products.

"Strong growth of aesthetic brands and partners' revenues from Asia/MENA [Middle East and North Africa] offset the challenging European Union environment, which together with substantial operating leverage drives adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation [EBITDA] 15% ahead of our estimate," Jefferies said, issuing a target of 48p.

However, the broker said the company's outlook was "vague" with management saying they expect European Union growth to accelerate and international operations and aesthetics to be the primary top-line drivers. "No specific like-for-like revenue or profitability targets are outlined in the press release," the broker added.

[red ninja] 19/9/2013 20:40

Looks like a tale of jam tomorrow as in:

-- reduced debt
-- closed factory
-- sold non core products
-- cut research costs
-- increased marketing spend on core products
-- saw good Asian growth

Thus we are promised strong cash flow and a brighter future.

SP held up, Tosca still accumulating maybe ?

We'll have to see if there is indeed jam tomorrow.

[dealit] 19/9/2013 08:19

Dull dreary results on a damp day IMHO seem harsh. I feel steady as we go fits the bill, back in the draw for me and wait. "Meanwhile, prospects for sustained growth in our key dermatology brands look exceptional, notably in emerging markets but also increasingly in Europe."

[steeplejack] 19/9/2013 08:14

Sculptra....You suspect that the continued success of products like this is all in the marketing and SPH clearly recognise this.I just wonder,how enduring the success of products like this,in an ever changing world,can be.Afterall,Sculptra is really a cosmetic,is it not.That said,the margins on such products can be highly attractive.Keep an eye on the cash flow,that's the key.