Silence Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 01/3/2020 17:31

Incidentally, Ali Mortazavi is the executive chairman of a UK public plc, STT, and probably neither he nor his company would take kindly to you accusing him of "ramping".

[1gw] 01/3/2020 17:29

The SLN platform has led to the MNK deal on complement assets, STT, as well as the Takeda deal and the development through pre-clinical studies of the SLN360 asset.

Proof of safety through clinical trials in humans is obviously going to be an important step for individual assets, but the SLN platform has demonstrable value from results already published and deals already done I would say. But you're free to disagree, of course.

[sikhthetech] 01/3/2020 17:09

"I would allocate a significant chunk of value to the platform"

So you allocate a significant value to a platform which hasn't been clinically validated.

your comments:
"Do you not think it is likely to be one of the winning platforms over the next 10 to 20 years? Any early-stage biotech company is going to be relatively high risk, but at least with SLN we appear to have a winning technology (although SLN's platform itself needs clinical validation)"



So this SLN platform which needs clinical validation and maybe a winner over the next 10 or 20yrs is worth a significant part of $422m.

Really???


Platform not clinically validated.
CEO resigned unexpectedly
Cash to run out next year
Minor deals
Ali tweets, ramping before he sold...

[vonmoger] 01/3/2020 16:55

Stt

Any investment is a gamble. Early stage biotech investing is risky. I doubt anyone disputes this.

IFs and BUTs is the investment story of clinical trials and the investment here. I don't see any difference here to all the other RNAi companies and or other biotech companies... So what's the point? Risk here somehow different?

In this company everyone already knows the CEO is gone, sln124 has been delayed/change of protocol, everyone knows this is biotech and risky etc. etc. What's the point?
Companies never going to get a CEO ever? Company is never going to dose a sln124 trial ever? Company is never going to do a deal... When all other RNAi companies have their dance cards full/have done deals?

All good news to come, bad news fully known... By everyone.

[1gw] 01/3/2020 16:47

And on the specific point about it being "a gamble", SLN is of course a risky investment as is any equity investment. Being early-stage biotech it is towards the high-risk end of the equity spectrum I would say, as I have acknowledged on several occasions.

But, I can rationalise the value in 2 ways:
1. By comparison with other listed RNAi(GalNAc-siRNA) stocks (such as ARWR and DRNA)
2. By bottom-up analysis of assets + platform (the Edison approach, but I would allocate a significant chunk of value to the platform, not just to the identified assets)

I have no idea how to rationalise the value of something like NCYT and the wild day-to-day gyrations in shareprice make me think it is being driven by speculation rather than by any rational analysis - but I haven't studied the company so that's a relatively unresearched view.

And in terms of "giving advice" I'm not trying to do anything of the sort. I am rationalising why I invested in SLN as part of a portfolio of high-risk picks and I am reacting to your characterisation of SLN as "a gamble" (in the context of NCYT), indicating where I think you might want to be looking if you really want to minimise risk as much as possible (i.e. given that all equity investment involves, in my opinion, an appreciable level of risk compared to holding index-linked gilts to maturity).

[sikhthetech] 01/3/2020 16:39

1gw,

"It's played out pretty much as hoped to this point. If you want to reduce risk to a minimum, maybe you should consider investing in index-linked gilts"

There you go, outed yet again...

SLN is a gamble for gamblers only...

I've asked many times but you always fail to answer...
Are you registered with the FCA to give investment advice?.

[1gw] 01/3/2020 16:14

If you've forgotten, stt, I disclosed my portfolio and approach to you in November 2018 (link below). It's played out pretty much as hoped to this point. If you want to reduce risk to a minimum, maybe you should consider investing in index-linked gilts and holding them to maturity. Otherwise, shouldn't you try to manage the risk inherent in the investments you choose? I suggest my approach of investing in a portfolio of individual risky stocks is perhaps lower risk overall than your apparent "hail mary" approach of focusing pretty much on a single AIM security, TLY, only, but each to his own.

[sikhthetech] 01/3/2020 15:54

1gw,

True to form, you're trying to evade the point..

You said:
"NCYT for gamblers only I would have thought."
therefore suggesting that SLN is not a gamble.

Why is SLN at the current mcap with the current newsflow not a gamble and for GAMBLERS only?

[1gw] 01/3/2020 15:49

That just about sums you up stt. Try a search on this thread for "high risk" and see how many times I have acknowledged it as such.

[sikhthetech] 01/3/2020 15:43

" rational investors risk the future and discount it back to the present stt."

Since when have you been a rational investor???

The point here was if SLN is a GAMBLE. Are you suggesting that SLN is not, that it's low risk???
Really??

[1gw] 01/3/2020 15:14

But rational investors risk the future and discount it back to the present stt. Very few invest in an early-stage biotech planning to wait 10 or 20 years before taking profits or cutting losses. Each deal and each trial result changes the perception of value and risk. I'm invested here because I think those deals and trial results are going to increase the market value of SLN.

[sikhthetech] 01/3/2020 15:10

"Do you not think it is likely to be one of the winning platforms over the next 10 to 20 years? Any early-stage biotech company is going to be relatively high risk,"


Yes, so a high risk gamble which MAY or MAY NOT come good in 10 or 20 yrs time. and then IF there hasn't been advancements in other scientific technologies, the share price MAYBE worth 3-4 times the current sp.

It's 2020, isn't it??? so as I said, they ONLY have cash until NEXT YEAR.

With POTENTIAL milestone payments of UP TO $100m and IF IT GETS TO COMMERCIAL, UP TO $563m.

Lots of IFs and BUTs...


Sounds like a GAMBLE at current mcap of $422m (£325m), doesn't it?

[1gw] 01/3/2020 14:53

I think only you could describe the Mallinckrodt deal as "minor" stt.

"The collaboration provides for potential added clinical and regulatory milestone payments of up to $100 million for SLN500, as well as commercial milestone payments of up to $563 million for SLN500. Should Mallinckrodt opt to license one or two additional assets, Silence could receive up to $703 million in similar clinical, regulatory, and commercial milestone payments per asset. Silence would also receive tiered, low double-digit to high-teen royalties on net sales for SLN500 and each optioned asset."

They do have revenue of course, with the royalty on Alnylam's Inclisiran, as well as the potential for payments arising from Quark's progress on Teprasiran.

They have cash until 2H 2021:
"The Company reports an unaudited cash balance at 31 December 2019 of £33.5m. This provides the Company with sufficient cash to fund operations under the current business plan into the second half of 2021. "

...and every chance of raising further non-dilutive funds from licence agreements, as well as the option of raising funds from a US IPO.

What's your considered opinion of RNAi technology, STT? Do you not think it is likely to be one of the winning platforms over the next 10 to 20 years? Any early-stage biotech company is going to be relatively high risk, but at least with SLN we appear to have a winning technology (although SLN's platform itself needs clinical validation), a done deal of potentially huge value on the complement assets and another asset of great potential value in SLN360. On a reasonably risked basis it seems to me good value at this shareprice, and also when compared with ARWR and DRNA market caps, but each investor has to do their own research and make up their own minds.

[sikhthetech] 01/3/2020 14:04

1gw/VM.

"NCYT for gamblers only I would have thought."

And SLN or Byot at current share price aren't, really???

So according to you, SLN, with a mcap of £325m, a company:

Running out of cash in a year
without a CEO
Minor deals
No results from trials
No revenue
ramped by Ali before he sold

is NOT a gamble...

Honest guv..

[vonmoger] 01/3/2020 13:17

K

If one thought that an announcement of an in-clinc trial (whatever your definition is) or a new CEO was going to be a share price increasing event... Wouldn't one buy before that news?

If one waits for "clarity" and wants to be long, isn't one just watching share price increasing news flow take affect whilst one is on the sidelines?

If one thinks a first dosing announcement is share price positive do you wait till after to buy?
If one thinks a new CEO is a share price positive do you wait till after?
If one thinks a deal will be share price positive do you wait till after? Etc.

I bought before the news. It's a simple strategy.

Gla

[growthpotential] 29/2/2020 22:50

No, you risk losing x% return, "forever"

[kreature] 29/2/2020 20:56

1g. Even as a bull, wouldn't it be prudent to sell everything now, and buy back when there's some sort of in-clinic clinical trail and maybe a CEO, and more clarity ??

[1gw] 28/2/2020 15:07

Bought some ARWR at just over $34.

[1gw] 28/2/2020 11:29

Well there's biotech and there's biotech. In my mind quality RNAi is the right sort of biotech in this context. SLN I think belongs in the quality RNAi pool, but I would like to see some progress fairly soon on CEO / first dosing / partnerships to provide some (further) evidence of that...

NCYT for gamblers only I would have thought. I wouldn't buy it but if I shorted (I don't) I would be nervous about that as well given the huge swings. OPTI I follow with interest since someone who has trolled me in the past is a big believer - seems to me there's plenty of distribution agreements and RNS's but not much evidence of actual (material) profit-generating revenue (a bit like VRS perhaps in that regard) - but I haven't looked at it in any detail.

[kreature] 28/2/2020 11:05

You may be right but at least you made me laugh out loud :)

'It seems to me biotech must have some attractions as a safe haven'

Shorted NCYT 25 points this morning from 171 down in their faulty ramp elevator, so all good. I mean bad, not sure any more. And couldn't resist shorting Opti from c 64p, you only have to view the YouTube vids on that one - imo

[1gw] 28/2/2020 10:54

No, K, trying to retain some discipline here. Currently holding 80% of my end-2018 holding, which is my reference point. Having bought back the 5% or so sold higher, I need it to drop below 400p which is my last sell point for the tranche below that.

I did look hard at adding to ARWR yesterday though, as at the pre-open it was showing down about 20% on my average purchase price. In the end decided not to given the turmoil and the initial bounce, but it held up pretty well yesterday, so will consider again today if there is weakness.

It seems to me biotech must have some attractions as a safe haven, at least for those which don't need to raise cash in the near-term.

Happy to hold SLN into Monday and hope for some positive news ahead of the conference presentation (assuming the conference isn't cancelled at the last minute for coronavirus-related reasons).

What about you? Do you have a position at the moment? There must be better stocks to short than this one I would have thought in the current market turmoil?

[kreature] 28/2/2020 09:44

Another top up 1g?

[1gw] 27/2/2020 16:36

Last minute jiggery pokery again by the look of it to take it up to a 420p close.

[kreature] 27/2/2020 12:09

Sometimes it’s good to buy on a wing and a prayer. GL Monday

[peanut100] 27/2/2020 11:55

Lovely buyer at 410p in size - burn shorts burn