Silence Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[vonmoger] 19/2/2020 21:53

K, maybe the reason was your previous message on this board asking about 124... At 15:08... Around about the time it took off, coincidence? Are you actually ramping with these sln124 trial missing posts?

[kreature] 19/2/2020 21:08

Any reason for the rise today? Did they find the 124 trial or something?

[1gw] 19/2/2020 20:25

Snowy78

Chances of a Nasdaq listing pretty high I think, if the company isn't bought out first. This is from an options award RNS on 7th October:

"1,814,500 options, equating to circa 70% of the total being awarded, only vest on the achievement of certain performance conditions within the vesting periods. These performance conditions include Silence achieving a listing on a US stock exchange and the subsequent achievement of a share price of £2.85, or the equivalent price in ADSs, if such an instrument has been issued. "


And Silence put an article on their website on "Biotech CEOs: Can Scientist Founders Remain in Charge?" which included the following:

'Solomon has a US IPO in his sights as CEO of UK-based Silence Therapeutics, working in the fast-evolving field of RNA interference... Solomon, like many other European biotech CEOs, spends a week a month in the US building share-of-voice with future investors. "I'm telling the story over and over, so that when it's time for a transaction, we'll have that support base," he said.'


As to when, that's more difficult to call, especially now Solomon is gone. The company has committed itself to forming a US subsidiary in the first instance. On 7th January they announced:

"With our increased U.S. focus, the Board has taken the decision to establish a U.S. subsidiary in the coming year to improve the Company's visibility and capture value for shareholders by more actively participating in the rapidly expanding field and the world's most significant healthcare market."

[1gw] 19/2/2020 20:09

And just for stt's benefit, the SoL story (in the post pasted below) on which I think VM bases his assumption that there was probably a bit of a short squeeze in October and November, given the rapid fall in average SoL and the remarkable share price rise over that period.

For everyone else's benefit, stt is fully aware of the potential correlation between SoL and short positions, as he has recorded SoL for another company on an ADVFN bulletin board on many occasions.

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1gw - 05 Feb 2020 - 13:11:19 - 48741 of 48811

Shares on loan.

January shares on loan data now available from Euroclear and it looks like the shorts may not have stopped digging their hole yet. 4.8m shares on loan on average in January, up from 3.4m in December.

The table below shows average shares on loan for each month, in millions, from the Euroclear data:

Jan 4.8
Dec 3.4
Nov 0.05
Oct 0.3
Sep 2.4
Aug 2.6
Jul 2.8

[snowy78] 19/2/2020 20:06

What are the chances of a Nasdaq listing for Silence?

[1gw] 19/2/2020 20:04

If it is the start of short-closing, you still need some sort of catalyst to cause a sustained rise I think. Someone has to say "close it and close it quickly" I would have thought to drive the price up as quickly as it moved this afternoon - the normal thing would be to buy back a few and when the price started to rise more than 2 or 3% pull back and wait for the price to settle again before resuming, wouldn't it?

The only 2 "events" we've had this week are the announcement of the presentation / webcast on 2nd March and SocGen's holdings notice.

It seems unlikely to me that the SocGen notice is the catalyst.

But it could be that someone is viewing 2nd March as a date on which significant news might come to market - and given this is essentially a pre-arranged "publicity" event, it seems likely they're planning to release good news rather than bad news, if they're planning to release anything new. So with only 8 trading days after today, counting 2nd March, perhaps someone decided they needed to start closing more aggressively than they normally would, in case other shorts decided to do the same.

All speculation, I know, but kind of fun to speculate like that.

[sikhthetech] 19/2/2020 19:52

VM/1gw,

"when the last large short position in SoL was unwound"


There are NO short positions above 0.5% declared...

[vonmoger] 19/2/2020 19:35

Well we are now more than 10% above the 50day moving average. Price action today, looks like it took of like it stole something... kind of how it would react if there was a record short position as inferred by the SoL data in the process of starting to be unwound...

There was nothing to blame - no new ceo rockstar videos, no tweets, no supposed hot air announcements... just plain old price action... Looks similar as the start of the 2-4 then 4-6 run late last year... when the last large short position in SoL was unwound - but that is just me - i like a simple story. Only difference is this time though the SoL is bigger... much bigger.

Lets see what happens.

Gla.

[volsung] 19/2/2020 17:05

Will buy back a few tomorrow. Looks to be on the turn

[peanut100] 19/2/2020 16:43

Burn shorts burn

[1gw] 19/2/2020 16:27

Looking very good. News pending or just an enthusiastic buyer?

Must be a bit concerning if you're short.

[wilko14] 19/2/2020 16:12

A bit of a subjective timeframe there.

Change it for 1 year and it seems a bit hollow.

Lots a play in this stock and not for the faint hearted, but let’s at least have context to some posts.

[manc10] 19/2/2020 15:43

wow since december this has dropped 200p whats wrong with this company no chance this will be taken over pump and dump

[kreature] 19/2/2020 15:08

We can but hope for a tweet and maybe an update on the missing 124 trial and the missing captain ?Perhaps a regular update on who has left ?

[sikhthetech] 19/2/2020 10:24

1gw

"it leaves open the possibility that they will RNS something"

Still waiting for those rns following the JPM conference...
Or maybe some more Ali's tweets before he sells..

[1gw] 19/2/2020 09:53

So Soc Gen's holding is down by about 2.9m shares (as of 17th Feb) from their 17th Jan declaration. So that would fit with them being one side of the 2.9m share trade on 17th Feb. Who was on the other side though? Or was it just something to do with derivative positions held by other declared shareholders?

[vonmoger] 19/2/2020 09:39

Wilko

Possibly.

I think, this conference along with the JPM and mini deal with Takeda... Just shows the business is carrying along fine without a CEO. As Iain Ross said in the conference call, the team is highly experienced and more than capable. Obviously Iain Ross is now more involved as outlined in that ETX RNS.

I don't see anything material for us coming from this conference other than drumming up more interest from US investors... Which will lead to a US listing etc. Just my guess.

K,

If you are a bit bored of this presentation RNS, maybe go back and watch some of the old rockstar videos from DHS to get the blood pumping.

[wilko14] 19/2/2020 07:47

I’m assuming it could be some sort of follow on from their announcement of intention to list in the US. Just a guess but why would the CFO present clinical results/data/intentions? (Genuine question)

[1gw] 18/2/2020 21:07

It leaves open the possibility that they will RNS something more material earlier that day don't you think?

Last year, the Cowen presentation was webcast and coincided with publication of the preliminary results - which they then covered in the presentation. This year they've announced that audited results are going to be presented in April, so presumably aren't planning to issue earlier preliminary results. So they might want something else to build the presentation around, if they are not just to rehash a general overview of the company.

[kreature] 18/2/2020 20:47

a presentation. is that really all there is to RNS ?

[1gw] 18/2/2020 09:54

FWIW I'd guess both the [edit] 2.9m trade yesterday and the 380k trade today are "willing seller, willing buyer" basis as they seem too close to the recent price to represent someone buying or selling "on the market".

Could even be trades linked to one of the holders rolling over or converting a spreadbet.

[1gw] 18/2/2020 09:46

Dr. Rob Quinn, Chief Financial Officer, will present at the Cowen 40th Annual Health Care Conference in Boston.

Date: Monday, March 2, 2020
Time: 4:10 p.m. EST (9:10 p.m. GMT)
Location: Boston Marriott Copley Place, Boston, Mass.

A live webcast of the presentation can be accessed via the Investors section of the Company's website at www.silence-therapeutics.com.

[vonmoger] 18/2/2020 09:25

I think 1gw means beginning of April. Being after the end of Q1.

The RNS stated Q1 and nothing has changed.