Silence Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[kreature] 21/1/2020 09:57

I think they've all gone? I would ask the existing ceo but um......oh well

[vonmoger] 21/1/2020 09:51

K always the entertainer, any ex CEOs left on the register so we can track that info?

[kreature] 21/1/2020 09:18

Probably just waiting for the next chunky sell from an ex ceo or some significant holder. I guess they would know best. IMO

[1gw] 21/1/2020 09:01

Too much to hope that Soc Gen want to build back to their previous holding?

[ukeagle2aus] 21/1/2020 08:54

On its way back to above 400 again?Good luck to all investors

[1gw] 20/1/2020 20:34

Who knows. There are no disclosed short positions, so no individual positions greater than 0.5%.

Very difficult to make much sense of some of the trade reporting. But the 2 big trades on Friday (the day Soc Gen went through 5%) were 1.2m at 304p and 0.95m at 304.3p.

Soc Gen declared at 3.833m shares on 9th Jan, so have increased by 825k shares between 9th Jan and 17th Jan, i.e. by less than the smaller of the 2 big trades. They could have sold some more after declaring the 9th Jan position and before 17th, but according to Yahoo! finance there wasn't much volume on the intervening days (114k on 16th, the only day above 50k).

So perhaps there are some other undeclared trades still to come.

It does at least look to me as though it can't have been Soc Gen with both the big trades on Friday, which would suggest there was another big (i.e. the 1.2m share trade) seller.

[kreature] 20/1/2020 18:23

Were they closing a short position or something ?

[1gw] 20/1/2020 17:06

Soc Gen increasing - who would have thought it?

Stt - I didn't have Soc Gen increasing as a credible catalyst. Much more positive than just the end of the Soc Gen overhang though, wouldn't you agree?

Have to see what happens going forward. Are they going to be trading both ways (on their own account or for a client)?

I did sell a few today, taking the profit on my most recent purchase.

[sikhthetech] 20/1/2020 16:50

1gw/VM,

Well SocGen increased, so I suppose it throws the ramp that SocGen finishing might provide a catalyst to the sp, out of the window...
Better go back to the drawing board and to post that 'IIs increasing so they must know something' ramp!!.
;-)


1gw20 Jan '20 - 08:16 - 48678 of 48682
0 0 0
I suppose another catalyst for a shareprice up-move could just be Soc Gen (and whoever) finishing their selling so that the perceived overhang disappears.

[vonmoger] 20/1/2020 15:56

SocGen now increasing... too funny.

They are not a reliable institutional investor on the register - CFD provider or whatever. I'd gladly see it at zero.

[1gw] 20/1/2020 12:39

That doesn't sound right. That would be like pretending there hadn't been sustained buying to offset the soc gen selling earlier this year.

But perhaps either the soc gen overhang is clearing, or there's a bit more buying interest as a result of what the sln team did at jpm20 last week.

[kreature] 20/1/2020 10:58

I guess we can take a rest and pretend that the significant shareholders have stopped selling ?

[vonmoger] 20/1/2020 08:20

1gw, I get it wrong just as much as the next guy, but that was what I alluded to last week. If the share price was stable-ish with SocGen selling a percent a day, or whatever, what happens when they finish?...

As always only time will tell... Time is on sln side imho. Each day that passes increases the chances of additional deals, cash through 2nd half 2021.

[1gw] 20/1/2020 08:16

I suppose another catalyst for a shareprice up-move could just be Soc Gen (and whoever) finishing their selling so that the perceived overhang disappears.

[kreature] 20/1/2020 08:13

wrong thread

[1gw] 20/1/2020 07:21

You're going to have to explain that one stt. Even for you that's quite a non sequitur. Ali was replying to a tweet that suggested another company's HBV asset had failed. What's that got to do with him deciding to take some profit on his SLN holding?

[vonmoger] 20/1/2020 05:44

1gw sorry for confusion I amended my post to say jpm 2020 conference. I did not intend to imply JPM were making a play for sln.

The only play I see from JPM is inviting them so that they are in the JPM investment bank machine for when the inevitable US SLN IPO comes whenever that might be.

But yes I agree with your comments and I would not be surprised to hear news on that before the end of January.

[sikhthetech] 19/1/2020 23:13

1gw,


Didn't Ali start selling soon after that tweet??? Which is more than a coincidence, don't you think?. Given he's supposed to be an expert in this field, it says a lot...


1gw19 Jan '20 - 11:55 - 48669 of 48673
0 0 0
Perhaps answered my own question on why SLN doesn't have a hep b asset yet. 9th October (2019) tweet from Ali "HBV is ridiculously complicated"."

[1gw] 19/1/2020 21:24

VM - what makes you think jpm made a particular play for sln?

I assumed sln decided to go to progress deal discussions and to talk to potential new ceo's. And perhaps also to present the company to investors and potential investors to try to allay any concerns about the departure of the ceo and the "delay" to first dosing.

But I agree all those discussions may lead to news.

[vonmoger] 19/1/2020 21:01

I would add

* I wouldn't be surprised if something comes out of JPM 2020 conference by the end of Jan. JPM didn't invite them over there for fun.

* Mnk triggering the other 2 complement options, could happen anytime, but yes likely later than Feb. A milestone payment could be made.

[1gw] 19/1/2020 18:02

My possible catalysts for an up move in the relatively near-term (say plausible by end of Feb) would be:

o Announcement of first dosing of SLN124
o CEO appointment
o Deal announcement
o Positive news on Teprasiran DGF (NDA process) or AKI (interim Ph 3 results)
o Holdings notice showing new major holder

Of these, I think a further deal announcement is most likely to cause a material up-move, but CEO appointment might also have a noticeable impact if (s)he is seen as a good choice and makes the "right" comments in the accompanying press release. I would have thought first dosing and Teprasiran news would be relatively minor impacts - although on Teprasiran I think it would depend how SBI choose to spin the news - if they go big on the potential for high value in an IPO/sale of Quark then that might have a good read-across to SLN, apart from the increased probability of royalty/milestone income. And holdings notice I've put in there because personally I would feel better if I saw a new institution (or known biotech private investor) declare - so I guess I'm not alone in that and it would do something for sentiment.

[kreature] 19/1/2020 17:27

Thanks for the tip, I don’t only short though. What is the catalyst for the next share price move up here? I don’t see any imminent good news on 5he horizon, like say the results of 1b that didn’t start q3 2019.

[1gw] 19/1/2020 11:55

Perhaps answered my own question on why SLN doesn't have a hep b asset yet. 9th October (2019) tweet from Ali "HBV is ridiculously complicated".

Wonder if that sentiment persisted in SLN post Ali's departure.

[1gw] 19/1/2020 09:56

Remember ARWR put in place what looked (to me) like a poison pill as defence against takeover when SLN suggested the possibility of a corporate transaction with them after acquiring a stake in ARWR around 3 years ago. At the time SLN and ARWR were approximately equal in market cap if my memory serves.



I continue to believe that ARWR buying SLN, largely in paper, would be a credible ending to the story. ARWR get their "revenge" for SLN's earlier impertinence, SLN large private holders get an exit route (ARWR large-enough market cap to allow them to cash out ARWR paper if they wish to), and ARWR+SLN would be a formidable RNAi company. Now that ARWR have raised fresh funds through the recent offering, they could even sweeten the deal by offering a cash element if that was seen as important to some SLN shareholders. I interpret Ali's public (twitter) comments on being able to get a pre-clinical Lp(a) asset and a platform for $1bn as flying a kite to alert other possible interested parties that SLN would probably be for sale at this price.

It may never happen of course, and as usual, there is no advice intended here. Just speculation.