Silence Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 16/1/2020 19:45

The JPM Healthcare Conference comes to a close soon.

I think SLN need a lot more deals, bigger deals with larger up front cash to justify such a high mcap...

[1gw] 16/1/2020 19:35

No stopping MNK at the moment though.

[kreature] 16/1/2020 18:12

Now what? 200?

[vonmoger] 16/1/2020 04:19

On mnk below is what some article wrote re yesterday's share price move. Imho, Questor went from 4 to 11% holding here, in full knowledge of this opioid mnk litigation... Just like everyone else. It is fully known... By everyone.

That is why I think there is only upside re the mnk bankruptcy possibility and sln as it gets priced out. Yeah I agree mnk could go bankrupt but the "good company" would carry on, contract would carry on... And when mnk was priced at 2 or whatever... Bankruptcy was basically fully priced. It's not in the US governments interest to kill the goose... Better to let it limp along and take the eggs, that is what I expect to happen, and the agreement to continue. No doubt in a year or 2 MNK will split into good and bad company, an idea they already floated. The government goose in one bucket and everything else in the other.

In any case if they pay off the 2020 debt as described... mnk bankruptcy ain't happening any time soon.

"The stock started rallying this week after Chief Financial Officer Bryan Reasons said at the J.P. Morgan Health Care Conference on Monday that the company could pay off its potential 2020 debt maturities, which is a "slightly over" $600 million, in cash. And regarding the dispute with the government over pricing for Acthar, he implied that he was optimistic regarding a favorable outcome, so there was no need to rush to settle. "Right now, we felt like the hearing went really well and we feel good about it," Reasons said, according to a transcript provided by FactSet. "So, we don't feel it's in our best interest to actually initiate the settlements." And regarding the opioid litigations, Chief Executive Mark Trudeau said he was "hopeful" that a resolution can be reached "sooner rather than later." The stock has more than doubled (up 110%) over the past three months."

[vonmoger] 16/1/2020 01:03

MNK is a known known. Everybody already knows it. It is fully baked in to everything and then some.

[kreature] 15/1/2020 20:54

6.5bn might be a bit of a worry

[hsm12] 15/1/2020 19:11

MNK has $6.5b if debt.

[kreature] 15/1/2020 18:36

MKN surely has different fish in the kettle? 744m sales and looking like someone may have trashed the price just to get a bargain?

[1gw] 15/1/2020 17:51

Apples and pears k. You know why MNK is in trouble.

Although there seems to be a real squeeze on in MNK this afternoon (was up around 30% a minute or two ago). Don't know what news or rumour is driving it.

[kreature] 15/1/2020 17:40

So are you saying that SLN is overvalued ?

[1gw] 15/1/2020 16:55

MNK shareprice looking a bit healthier, flirting with $4 today, which according to Yahoo! Finance seems to give it a market cap almost identical to that of SLN! MNK had $744m of net sales in the last quarter (3Q) they reported, so a bit bigger on that metric...

[1gw] 15/1/2020 16:39

Bought a few more back this afternoon, so now back to around 90% of my end-2018 holding.

[1gw] 15/1/2020 12:14

New corporate presentation on the website, as of January 2020. Presumably being used in meetings over in SF.

First point of the final, summary slide, highlights the "valuable platform" (Edison analyst take note):

"Reproducible, proprietary gene silencing (RNAi) therapeutics platform, rapidly generating internal pipeline and out-licensing options. Platform validated through collaborations with Mallinckrodt and Takeda"

[ukeagle2aus] 15/1/2020 12:10

Volume is so quiet it's deafening! Let's hope it's a chance to breathe new fire into this and burn the shorting trolls who've appeared lately! (Save your keyboards, I filter out all shorting scum).

[sikhthetech] 15/1/2020 11:07

As to Takeda, they have signed a few deals worth multi-millions, tens of millions... it's what they do...It's a centuries old company worth multi-billions..

Like this one:




However, the SLN/Takeda deal is worth 'single digit millions' in research funding... and SHOULD it prove successful then they will negotiate a licencing deal...

£262m mcap for a R&D company in trials but nothing concrete????



"Shares in drug developer Silence Therapeutics PLC (LON:SLN) advanced 11% after it unveiled a deal with a Japanese pharma giant worth “single digit million dollars” in research funding."

"Should the initial research foray prove successful, Silence and Takeda will negotiate a licence agreement."

[sikhthetech] 15/1/2020 10:54

That's the point, Ali posted his tweets in Sept and then started selling...
Hardly a conviction in his belief in SLN...


1gw13 Jan '20 - 17:40 - 48613 of 48624
0 0 0
Personally I'd suggest that for an ex-CEO (left in June 2018) to keep holding 2.9m shares from 4th October 2018 (share price around 113p) while the share price went as low as 40p and to keep holding through last year's recovery (still had 2.9m shares as of 24th July 2019) was indicative of a fair amount of conviction in the company and its science.

[1gw] 15/1/2020 09:17

Looks like everyone's waiting at the moment.

Or perhaps they're all at JPM20 trying to finalise deals! AMGN gave a presentation yesterday where AMG890 (their Lp(a) asset licensed from ARWR) got a slide (according to reports). Haven't noticed a single tweet about SLN yet.

Link to AMGN presentation. Says they're expecting to get into Phase 2 for AMG890 in 1H 2020.

[kreature] 13/1/2020 20:27

Probably still weighted towards the short side imv , but I'll wait to see what happens over the next few days. ps thanks for highlighting the positives.

[1gw] 13/1/2020 19:53

OK. Not very tempted to avoid it then?

[kreature] 13/1/2020 19:30

I closed for a breather, although I may well add shorts soon as I believe there is still uncertainty as to when a 124 trial will really start, and uncertainly as to the true cost of the trials and how they will be funded. Just my opinions as always though, ATB

[1gw] 13/1/2020 18:36

kreature - I'm still curious about your earlier post which implied you no longer had a short position. You weren't being disingenuous were you?

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kreature 13 Jan '20 - 13:21 - 48606 of 48619 0 0 0
Tempted to avoid this one for a while but I don't know...

[1gw] 13/1/2020 18:28

Any theories as to who the offsetting "megalithic" buyer might be?

[1gw] 13/1/2020 18:27

It's unknown, but why not have a look at the reported trade volumes since 31st December and the reported selling by Soc Gen and try to work out how much room there is for anyone else to have been selling significant volumes?

[kreature] 13/1/2020 18:14

'holds' or held 1g? We do not know beyond the continued megalithic dumping that you highlight from around 3% to 2.62%. It's unknown.

[1gw] 13/1/2020 18:13

They also quote Soc Gen as holding 9.93%. If that is the 31st December position then it means they were selling aggressively in early January.

9.93% would be 7.8m shares and they reported 5.6m as of 3rd January.

I guess Silence will update their shareholder page as of 31st December at some point fairly soon, so that will give us some insight.