Silence Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 05/2/2020 13:11

Shares on loan.

January shares on loan data now available from Euroclear and it looks like the shorts may not have stopped digging their hole yet. 4.8m shares on loan on average in January, up from 3.4m in December.

The table below shows average shares on loan for each month, in millions, from the Euroclear data:

Jan 4.8
Dec 3.4
Nov 0.05
Oct 0.3
Sep 2.4
Aug 2.6
Jul 2.8

[kreature] 04/2/2020 21:13

probably all end in tears if it's on AIM ?

[1gw] 04/2/2020 19:38

Quite interesting to look at a 3-month chart of SLN vs ARWR vs DRNA. 3 months ago SLN was under £4, before breaking up to race over £6. But actually, over these 3 months, it didn't rise as high, relatively speaking, as ARWR and only about the same as DRNA. It then fell back lower than either (again, relatively). But now they're all pretty close, with DRNA a bit better over the 3 months, followed by ARWR followed by SLN.

As to what, if anything, that all means, I wouldn't like to guess. I suppose it could just be an independent tendency to mean reversion.

[mdw1] 04/2/2020 17:33

Consolidating around these levels if nothing else; seem to recall they did this last time.....

[1gw] 04/2/2020 17:21

More last-minute jiggery pokery. Looks like someone trying to keep the close below 400p. Perhaps worried about volsung piling back in?

[growthpotential] 03/2/2020 22:10

Lol, how many shares can your broker usually cover you for?

[1gw] 03/2/2020 18:57

Don't know, but the UT price (when there is one) is taken as the closing price by Yahoo! Finance and I think other financial reporting sites. So it often looks to me from the trading into the close and the result of the closing auction as though someone must have been trying to get a red close/blue close (if not a specific number) in the books, sometimes with relatively small trades.

Maybe the reality is more mundane though.

[kreature] 03/2/2020 18:32

Re pokery......Is SLN using the SETS system? In which case I think your last trade becomes the closing price.

[1gw] 03/2/2020 17:07

Looks like more jiggery pokery at the close.

[volsung] 03/2/2020 12:19

You seem to be quite interested k

[kreature] 03/2/2020 12:07

Is there any interest here these days?

[kreature] 03/2/2020 09:14

Hmmm, 3 trades. How’s liquidity here?

[slicethepie] 01/2/2020 17:28

What a great week TRMR, SLN and BYOT keep up the good work, much appreciated! Not so good for your troll

[1gw] 01/2/2020 14:29

As for "This was pumped on the back of Ali's tweets" what pumping are you referring to?

If the tweets you're referring to are the 2nd September interpretation of the Inclisiran safety results published that day, do you not think the SLN ex-CEO's interpretation of a peer company's clinical results and the read-across to the sector in general is relevant to SLN investors?

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sikhthetech 1 Feb '20 - 12:56 - 48725 of 48727 0 0 0

...This was pumped on the back of Ali's tweets - however he sold soon after...

[1gw] 01/2/2020 13:33

You've got bored trolling byotrol, given the pasting you've taken over there, and now you're wondering if you might have more success over here?

The right question, surely, stt, is how do you justify the market cap being so low compared to those of Dicerna and Arrowhead? Do you have any thoughts on that? Obviously SLN is behind in the clinic and is lacking a CEO, but on the other hand deal value in RNAi has probably gone up because of the growing track record of the technology since DRNA and ARWR did their deals. What do you think the up-front for SLN360 should be if SLN partner it after Phase 1, and what do you think the chances of a successful Phase 1 on SLN360 are?

I think the potential catalysts I identified in the 19th Jan post below are still all in play, aren't they? Specifically on deals, mega or otherwise, we still have the 7th January statement from the company:

"Silence continues to explore multiple opportunities to create shareholder value through significant partnerships with large and established pharmaceutical companies that leverage the Company's proprietary GalNAc-siRNA platform. "

And on JPM20, I think I certainly said I thought the chance of anything being announced there was fairly low, didn't I (see 12th Jan post below)? But I would expect them to have advanced some discussions there. The previous CEO suggested that partnership deals take 3 - 6+ months to bring to conclusion, so these aren't necessarily quick negotiations given the amount of money at stake and presumably the due diligence that a counter-party would want to carry out on the pre-clinical results.

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1gw - 19 Jan 2020 - 18:02:51 - 48671 of 48726

My possible catalysts for an up move in the relatively near-term (say plausible by end of Feb) would be:

o Announcement of first dosing of SLN124
o CEO appointment
o Deal announcement
o Positive news on Teprasiran DGF (NDA process) or AKI (interim Ph 3 results)
o Holdings notice showing new major holder

Of these, I think a further deal announcement is most likely to cause a material up-move, but CEO appointment might also have a noticeable impact if (s)he is seen as a good choice and makes the "right" comments in the accompanying press release. I would have thought first dosing and Teprasiran news would be relatively minor impacts - although on Teprasiran I think it would depend how SBI choose to spin the news - if they go big on the potential for high value in an IPO/sale of Quark then that might have a good read-across to SLN, apart from the increased probability of royalty/milestone income. And holdings notice I've put in there because personally I would feel better if I saw a new institution (or known biotech private investor) declare - so I guess I'm not alone in that and it would do something for sentiment.

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1gw - 12 Jan 2020 - 12:18:42 - 48575 of 48726

What chance a deal announced during JPM20? I'd say relatively low given they've just announced Takeda, but you never know. Should certainly be a good opportunity to push multiple negotiations forward - as well perhaps as interview a few CEO candidates and try to tempt others to put themselves forward.

[sikhthetech] 01/2/2020 12:56

Another month gone...

Where are the mega deals?

This was pumped on the back of Ali's tweets - however he sold soon after...

There was supposed to be a read across from rival companies, suggesting big pharmas might take a look and worth many times SLN's current mcap...

Then there was Takeda, the huge international company injected some cash, a tiny amount, compared to the huge amounts elsewhere...

Then there was possible mega deals from last month's JPM20 - nothing heard so far...

Any revenues, results, deals to justify the £300m mcap???

[1gw] 31/1/2020 16:12

What chance a bit of jiggery pokery with the trades in the last 10 minutes or so of trading plus the UT in order to get the price up to or down to whatever the desired close number is?

Edit: a bit half-hearted this afternoon it seems.

[1gw] 31/1/2020 14:18

So, Teprasiran for DGF refuses to die, just stuck in FDA process.

SBI say in the English audio of the presentation (starting 12 minutes in) that they were due a response from the FDA on 19th December but a key FDA person at the relevant examination meeting had a family issue and so the meeting was delayed. Then Christmas and New Year got in the way.

SBI spin it positively, saying that if the response was going to be "no" they think they would have been given an immediate response ("No news is good news"). However, in one of the slides they also refer to time required to reconcile points of view within the commission.

At some point, you'd have to say maybe the FDA just doesn't want to be pushed into a decision on DGF, perhaps because of the issue with the Phase III end-point. But, for now, the carrot of getting into the NDA process (leading in SBI's eyes to a "highly priced IPO, or sale" of Quark) is still being dangled.

Meanwhile, no news on Teprasiran for AKI Phase 3 other than to say it is now "in the final phase of Phase III".

See slides 21-22 of today's presentation and listen to audio from 12 minutes in.

[vonmoger] 31/1/2020 08:15

Could be a chance this goes up circa 70p in a day. Has happened on no news before just a couple of months back. Can't see why it wouldn't have a chance again on some news. Dosing sln124 won't be delayed forever, CEO appointment, teprasiran, mnk triggering options, new deal..
gl

[kreature] 30/1/2020 22:46

could be. there must be a chance. gl

[1gw] 30/1/2020 21:30

And I don't know but you might also be able to make the case that we've seen something pretty close to a 78.6% fib retracement back to around 300p of the move from somewhere around 200p to over 600p. Alternatively, how about a roughly 50% retracement of the move from around 40p to over 600p.

In which case it could be onwards and upwards as part of the bigger up-trend, couldn't it?

[1gw] 30/1/2020 18:57

You'd need to develop the right shoulder first wouldn't you? Didn't we overshoot a normal H&S pattern when we went down through 400p without any real turbulence? Looks like we're having a strong upward move, so I can't see an obvious reason why it should stop at this point. See where it goes tomorrow - and whether we get any news on teprasiran.

[kreature] 30/1/2020 18:39

I guess 180p would complete the head and shoulders pattern then ?
i.e. 180-408-610-408-180

[1gw] 30/1/2020 16:41

408p close, identical to that peak on 31st October. Not for the first time it does feel rather like someone's playing games with the closes.