Sibir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[kibes] 17/11/2008 09:02

Is SBE breaking even at the moment? Export Urals blend sells for $49/bbl however there is an export tariff of $40/bbl so that doesn't look profitable in fact it is heavily loss making. And internally in Russia the price of oil is only $10/bbl so that isn't viable either. But perhaps the Moscow refinery is still making money?

Apparently Russian companies have been ordered to increase export shipments which doesn't sound good to me.



Quote:
'That is why it had to order oil companies last week to renew export shipments. They were selling at near $10 a barrel in the domestic market because crude prices have fallen to a level that no longer makes it rational to sell abroad given the state's $40 export tariff.

Russia must soon choose: either bleed its oil industry to death, or slash spending and face street riots. It is already mobilizing the apparatus of coercion. The Moscow Times bravely ran the headline "Police get orders to crush crisis unrest".'

The logical answer for Sibir unfortunately might be to shut down the oilfields and send staff home until conditions improve. Its either that or run at a loss. The Moscow refinery could no doubt be kept running on other companies production bought for $10/bbl. But selling at $10/bbl is daft in my opinion it is just giving away reserves for nothing.

[davidwilkin] 16/11/2008 16:32

dont know how much longer i can hold off at this price, its like buy 1 get 2 free.......will we visit £1.40 this week ??? me thinks so.

[azalea] 15/11/2008 17:23

Russia desperately needs a lift in the price of crude oil as do OPEC members. Both parties may get their wishes on the 29/11, when OPEC meets and almost certain to cut production again. To make any real impact, it needs to be another 1.5mbpd and strictly enforced.

FWIW, the 5 day forecast for N. America heralds much colder weather for the U.S. N.E. -15c daytime falls in Boston, Washington D.C. and New York (Minneapoplis & Chicago are already freezing at night). By January 09, we could see a squeeze on U.S. energy stocks. I do not hold SBE.

[jonny flame] 15/11/2008 09:47

By Claudia Assis
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--As Russian stocks sink deeper into the red, fund managers specializing in the country's stocks are still keeping their cool.
Russia's massive natural resources and huge cash reserves should keep the economy afloat near term. But the sailing will be extremely rough.
The dives in crude oil and metals prices, along with renewed concerns about state intervention in private companies, have sent Russian equities plumbing the depths.
Russia's two stock exchanges shut down Wednesday following share prices plunges. The bourses reopened Thursday, but in fits and starts. The largest stock exchange, the MICEX, was reopened on the regulator's orders.
The stock sales intensified following hefty central bank currency market intervention, a slightly devalued ruble, and an interest rate increase. Rather than reassuring them, the actions spooked investors further. The RTS stock index has fallen 24% this week.
The country's stocks are down 19% in dollar terms this month, and down 72% so far this year, according to the MSCI Barra Russia index.
Despite the losses, dedicated Russia investors are sticking to their guns, focusing mainly on companies benefitting from Russia's growing middle class.
"Russia is being punished right now," but will still grow 3% to 5% next year, said John T. Connor, manager of the Third Millennium Russia Fund, which has about $100 million in mostly Russian equities. "I'm happy with the hand I'm holding now," he said. "Consumer demand is still pretty good in Russia."
The economy should still grow about 7% this year.
Connor's hand largely consists of domestic-oriented companies such as cell phone companies Mobile TeleSystems (MBT) and Vimpel Communications (VIP), and Russia's largest food retailer, X5 Retail Group NV (FIVE.LN).
In addition to focusing on domestic-oriented stocks, managers at Los Angeles' Metzler/Payden, a $180 million fund dedicated mainly to Russian equities, have been concentrating their resources on large-capitalization companies. "(They) are less likely to run into liquidity issues," analyst Vladimir Milev said.
Third Millennium's Connor returned Monday from a trip to Moscow and Ukraine's capital, Kiev. In Moscow, people didn't seem afraid for their jobs and were not in a "panic mode," he said. "I didn't get a sense it was 1998 all over again," Connor added, referring to Russia's currency crisis and debt default a decade ago. "Stocks have been punished, but it doesn't mean the economy itself will collapse."
Russian authorities are moving aggressively to prevent just that.
The central bank said Thursday its foreign reserves fell $9.2 billion to $475.4 billion in the week to Nov. 7, down from almost $$600 billion in early August. The government can also draw on a Reserve Fund worth an estimated $130 billion to sustain public spending now that oil prices have fallen way below the budget assumptions.
"They still have quite a treasure chest there, which they can use to protect themselves," said Citi emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa analyst Andrew Howell. "But still, fear has set in."
Russia has been dipping into its savings at a break-neck pace that concerns investors, but the central bank said capital outflows peaked in September and October, so the need to use reserves to support the ruble is likely to decrease significantly in the coming weeks.
Perhaps, but investors also worry about the country's bloated banking sector and foreign currency debts weighing on many companies' balance sheets.
Political risk remains an issue as well, which has been demonstrated by government threats against firms and their owners.
Earlier this year, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin issued veiled warnings against coal and steel giant OAO Mechel (MTL), reviving fears of another Yukos - the once-giant oil company destroyed by allegations it owed back taxes.
OAO Uralkali (URKA.RS), Russia's second-largest potash producer, also fell earlier this month when the government reopened a two-year old environmental case against the company, which also re-ignited investors fears over a Kremlin move against a company.
To calm worries, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Thursday the government has no intention to nationalize companies.
Despite all the negatives, redemptions from Connor's fund have been "moderate," as most of its investors understand they'll have to weather the storm, he said.
Most clients of Harold Warren, head of sales trading at Russian brokerage Uralsib in New York, are sidelined, waiting for the dust to settle. "Things are quite difficult," he said, "but Russia is going to survive. It's not going to stop operating."
Others agree. While energy and commodities prices have fallen hard, Russia remains a top producer by volume of oil, natural gas and metals, global consumption of which won't disappear altogether. That means Russia's commodities will continue to generate income, albeit at lower levels.
The market is already pricing in much of that decline in earnings, Citi's Howell said. Valuations are now cheap - the average Russian company is trading at price-to-book ratios around seven times, versus their peak in 2006 P/E ratios stood at 16 times.
The market swoons and political risk concerns may have made Russia a tougher sale, but Warren sees stabilization in the first quarter of next year.
By most accounts, the country still has enough money saved and coming in to get from here to there.

-By Claudia Assis, Dow Jones Newswires; 201 938 4385; [e-mail]

[alwaysbanking] 15/11/2008 09:29

Another new low - SBE not bottomed yet??? P*ss Poor Performance and HC staying stum - Prime now for SBE to become wholly Russian Owned/or Wholly Shell owned. HC can't get a grip on the company board - business model perfect - just greedy Russians wanting to emulate Abromovitch, Beresky et al.
It is noted that the company has said nothing about the downturn even if it was just down to normal market conditions - but we wont believe that after the last RNS about Margin calls and us ending up with a hotel. Looking for an exit point but unfortunately massive paper loss presently - will hold - reluctantly.

[eug] 14/11/2008 13:58

baa humbug, was looking soooo good at 188p, now back to start.

[eug] 14/11/2008 11:03

That is a bit of a bummer dropping back like that, thought 190 would be on the cards. Hope some directors buy at this price.

[alwaysbanking] 14/11/2008 09:26

eug - like your confidence but ir would appear its been traded over a short period possibly t traders who are selling into any rise, cant knock them for it but the recovery will show when there are consistent buys aimho.

[eug] 14/11/2008 09:13

I see the recovery is on it's way. Will we see 190 by close?

[patience virtue] 13/11/2008 14:02

What is sickening, an probably ILLEGAL is that they issued an RNS a few days before saying that he was not getting margins calls.


Outrageous!

Why haven't the FSA taken HC to court for this?

[eug] 13/11/2008 13:48

Anyone seen this

[steveofsw19] 13/11/2008 11:57

See previous posts about share price tracking RTSI.



S.

[eug] 13/11/2008 11:33

I believe they still working on or discussing Dividend. What will the impact be if they declare no dividend? or reduce dividend? I know that we likely to see further drops if they declare no dividend, but not sure what to expect if the dividend is reduced. Maybe they will buck the market and increase it slightly. That will help the share price. I have been searching the web for any big reason for the price drop or any broker notes on Sibir. Nothing thus far.

[alwaysbanking] 13/11/2008 08:23

If it drops too low something like this could happen - Gazprom may just take out the flea in its ear maybe.

Russian services conglomerate Sistema is on the verge of taking over Bashkir's oil industry in the Urals region of Bashkortostan, Russian business newspaper Vedomosti said, citing unidentified sources.

ab

[milliecusto] 12/11/2008 22:20

think u might be right,dow donw 400 points and oil down to $ 56,oil stocks going to get hammered

[eug] 12/11/2008 20:34

Not looking good for tomorrow. Unless the DOW can reverse rapidly, think my buy may have been a bit early. Oh well will see what happens.

[malkie] 12/11/2008 19:58

A Market Maker learns
Private Investors
will have a choice in future!

www.killthespread.com

[a3477681] 12/11/2008 19:58

Pasted from the interims
"Funding
Our borrowings can be split into three categories. Our long term borrowing in relation to our size is a very small amount. We approximately halved our short term borrowings in the last 6 months and were able to refinance the remaining balance for a further year with effect from August 2008 on reasonable terms indeed on very good terms given recent turmoil in the financial sector. Our trade finance lines, which basically finance our refining/trading operation, "turn over" every 45 days. We are therefore in good shape with a debt to equity gearing ratio of 18% and dropping.
Relatively small but important transactions to be concluded this year may require funding from internal resources as external funding is now extremely difficult to obtain. This may have a knock on affect on the dividend payment. We are giving this matter high priority and should know and announce our intentions before the end of November."

Note 8. Borrowing and loans
On 24 August 2007 Sibir entered into a short term facility agreement for $400 million with ING Bank N.V. and JP Morgan Plc. During the period to 30 June 2008 an amount of $124 million was repaid and the outstanding amount of the term facility stood at $247 million

I would have thought that with net assets of 2,432,345,000 even accounting for the drop in the price of oil since Jun 08 that was pretty small beer for a re-financing

[jonny flame] 12/11/2008 17:21

Russia gives up rigid defence of rouble
By Peter Garnham

Published: November 11 2008 11:19 | Last updated: November 11 2008 18:01

[eug] 12/11/2008 16:17

Well, I hope it goes up for all of us, especially for those that bought higher up and are holding and been long time holders.

[a3477681] 12/11/2008 16:15

Good luck you deserve it! so do we all need it like crazy

[eug] 12/11/2008 16:03

A3477681, mmmm, research, not sure that counts for much in the current environment. These had good results but look at them. The markets are jittery and good stocks go down because people panic. I looked at their latest report and looked good. Also director buying was good. So who knows. I have bought some and will see what happens.

[a3477681] 12/11/2008 15:58

Eug
If you are getting in at this level then I think that's a reasonable bet but I am not buying cos I have more than is prudent for my portfolio. I bought a lot higher than this. DYOR applies more than ever in these markets. I am keen to go to the AGM before I get any further in.