Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[fillipe] 07/8/2020 06:51

finnCap today reiterate their 350p target price for STX.

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[peachie 74] 07/8/2020 06:49

Rafboy ... a previous post


Valuation
We are leaving our target valuation unchanged at 350p. We use a DCF model to value
Shield Therapeutics, with Feraccru/Accrufer estimated to be worth £412m, which implies
352p per share. This target price, however, excludes:
?The potential value of European milestones from Norgine, which are dependent on
reaching pre-defined in-market net sales of Feraccru. These amount to €50m, of which
€2m is expected to be paid in 2022 on completion of a paediatric study (due to start in
early 2020) and approval of a once-daily formulation of Feraccru. The balance is
expected to be paid over the next 5-10 years.
?Any milestones from a US partnering deal. Given the size of the US market (volume and
price) and the fact that Shield was able to negotiate a licensing deal for Europe at a time
of financial stress that generated an £11.0m upfront payment with €54.5m of
development and commercial milestones, we estimate that Shield could receive as much
as $50m upfront with over $100m of additional revenue-based milestones in the US.
?Any additional development and commercial milestones for China as well as for other
markets such as Japan and Korea

Not only are there many exclusions to the above but a £412m NPV seems quite conservative IMHO.

I am sure there was an interview last year when then CEO stated at its peak Feraccru could generate £500m p.a revenues. Not sure if this is total revenues or just royalties to STX, but even assuming the latter at 20% that's c£100m to STX and probably 90% profit. If so that would make us a £1bn company.

On page 5 of this Feb 2020 presentation just 5% of US market (so ultra conservative) generates a NPV of £821m alone so this makes the £412m estimate very low.


hxxps://www.shieldtherapeutics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/STX-Corp-Deck_Investor-presentations-6_11Feb20.pdf

[borromini1] 07/8/2020 06:39

Nobby - can you tidy up your left over block on me posting on your threads please?

[bobaxe1] 06/8/2020 22:35

Hi guys great day lots to come im sure.hope your all keeping position's open in our other plays as they stay on good trend lines

[ny boy] 06/8/2020 21:54

Just a thought before 200p +

US partnering discussions are progressing, which is a key factor given that the US represents around 70% of the US$3bn global iron replacement market

[rafboy] 06/8/2020 21:40

Thanks Nobby for setting this up. What do people see as realistic price targets over the next few weeks and months?

[peachie 74] 06/8/2020 21:20

Cheers Nobby.

[nobbygnome] 06/8/2020 21:09

The new thread....

[nobbygnome] 06/8/2020 21:08

A place for all STX holders to express reasonable views!

[dave4545] 06/8/2020 21:04

Your a gent Nobby.

I think I started this thread when this stock was around 17p cannot remember tbh but it was below 20p.

Hope it goes to 200p+ for all holders..it's done really well since I last held it.

[nobbygnome] 06/8/2020 20:56

Definitely not doing a Guild again; it's a lot of work!

Happy to start a moderated thread though if that is the consensus....

[best1467] 06/8/2020 19:58

Hi cranky back in from the Chain gang so little time to look at the data The positives I take out of the data The HB levels in the ITT arm at week 24/36 and 52 ferracru 2.93 /3.16 2,72g/dl IV 2.84 /2.70 and 2.79 so a clear positive not known from the original data Plus the economic benefits barring in mind from week 13/52 nearly 50% of the IV Infusion arm needed at leat one extra hospital visit And was suggested that it compares favourably from an efficacy point of view .
Importantly from a Commercial perspective which is why most of us invested It’suggested IV Infusion to be 1.6 x more expensive and as Least as important more Patient friendly in the current environment surely it’s a positive.

[sandeep67] 06/8/2020 19:51

Just increase your Vit C intake at the same time then there's not much hanging around then

[peachie 74] 06/8/2020 18:41

Feraccru also shown to be a lot more GI compatible than standard Iron tablets

[peachie 74] 06/8/2020 18:40

But once loaded then all good. And a tablet is far more accessible than waiting for an infusion, which offsets the minor point of Feraccru taking a little longer to build within the blood

[crankyman] 06/8/2020 18:39

By way of comparison, generic oral iron doses are about 200mg a day. Clearly it’s mostly not absorbed. That’s the point. It hangs about and irritates the gut.

[crankyman] 06/8/2020 18:35

Iron is directly injected but then is stored and then used to make haemoglobin. That process takes a long time. Even at 12 weeks, not everyone has his Hgb restored. Now an IV iron shot is I think about 1000mg of iron. Feraccru is 60mg of iron per day. That means it takes About 16 days to get the same amount of iron into your body but you need to absorb it. Most of Feraccru is absorbed but clearly not all of it. That means it takes a bit longer to get sufficient iron to make the Hgb.

[lovewinshatelosses] 06/8/2020 17:40

BTW Nobby - you are on fire with your picks. Well done and thanks too for your informative insights and contributions to these chat boards. You may not be everyone's cup of tea, but echo chambers are for children and I for one value them, even when I occasionally disagree with your sentiment or projections on one or two stocks here or there. This seems to be rare however. I look forward to the days ahead here. GLA.

[kop202] 06/8/2020 17:20

Realistically could you expect iron absorbed from a tablet to match iron which is directly injected into the blood stream in the short term.......errr...of course not.....but over time iron is absorbed into the blood ìFor chronic sufferers surely this is great news.....no more hospital inpatient visits....or at least far fewer stays in hospital. Lets just wait for the peer review eh Cranky?

[crankyman] 06/8/2020 17:03

We knew all of this stuff about the long term data. It’s great. The only news in this RNS was that the ITT also failed and I’m trying to put a positive spin on that. Some people don’t understand clinical trials or the Feraccru data or the past history here. Just look at the facts.

[markinvestor] 06/8/2020 16:59

+£25k @ .909......Nobby, this race horse syndicate will be buying a class 1 soon lol

[best1467] 06/8/2020 16:52

Cranky your taking the only slightly negative out of the data what about the long term beats iV on al 3 readings plus no need for additional top up as with the IV not sure if your out and bitter or just putting a negative on reasonable positive.
I’m not one for over pumping is the word constantly used but you can not be negative on the Review if giving a genuine post

[peachie 74] 06/8/2020 16:46

Crankys interpretation or Dr Stephanie Howaldt ?

Read her comments in the RNS...

I’ll go with Doc

[crankyman] 06/8/2020 16:39

Suspect people can handle the product not getting sufficient Hgb into the bloodstream at 12 weeks as IV, which is a one shot overdose, but not if it fails to do so because of noncompliance. Do I give the market too much credit to see that?