Shearwater Share Discussion Threads

[northwards] 22/1/2025 11:57

Multi year low ... hmm.

[dangersimpson2] 22/1/2025 11:48

Either bad news has leaked, or we have a forced seller. With very little liquidity, it could be a blood bath either way.

[lammylover] 22/1/2025 11:46

I've dropped a mail to Investors Relations asking if any progress on new Contract Wins etc. Flagged up share price drop this morning.

Could do with a statement from Company that they know no reason for share price decline and everything is "in line"..etc

[hastings] 22/1/2025 11:45

Nor I, ridiculous valuation now. But, people sell for various reasons.

[lammylover] 22/1/2025 11:36

Looks like someone is dumping 10k and 20k blocks - no idea why?

[bdbd11] 22/1/2025 11:05

big drop today, all time low? any reason?

[earwacks] 26/12/2024 14:22

Lopez. He is a major shareholder and the chairman responsible for the acquisitions! Net asset value is a little over 13p, which accounts for the cash which as we know fluctuates at different times of the revenue cycle. Basically they have turned £35 million of shareholder investment into its current value of about £5 million plus the variable cash pile. In a way it is probably a good thing their attempts to find more acquisitions failed, while they concentrate on the ones they have bought that have so far failed to prove their worth. There are two ways of looking at it. Either it’s a bargain or they have not a clue what they are doing. In current market you can flip a coin on that one.

[hastings] 26/12/2024 14:11

Cheers much appreciated

[owenski] 26/12/2024 14:09

Thanks for that Hastings, I usually have a look at your interview 'write ups' and value them.

[solarno lopez] 26/12/2024 13:00

And let’s not forget David Williams is a major holder and influencer !

[owenski] 26/12/2024 12:48

Thanks for the reply.

Niche security software companies often state market size opportunities and yet never seem to do that well. The sector seems to be dominated by a couple of large players, I fail to see any great differentiator in SWG.

That being said, I can see its potential as a recovery story if they deliver on 2H which they seem to have some confidence over. Beyond that, what sort of growth trajectory they can achieve I'm unsure of. Also, as a plus, they are on the Gov. accreditation list which can't harm.

Odds are the share price will recover from this obvious low base, but it aint no unicorn stock.

Encouraging to see Hastings and Rivaldo on here as they're credible investors.

[earwacks] 26/12/2024 10:08

Owen. I think the CFO is the least of their worries. It’s always tempting when people see cash piles and talk about EBITDAS, one of the worst ways to value a company like this. They did a placing at £2.40 in 2020 I think it was to raise £3 million to make another acquisition and it strengthen the balance sheet. Neither of which things really happened. Higgins own company, Brookcourt was bought by SWG prior to that for an absolutely staggering 30 million, and he became CEO. Without him and his company Swg doesn’t amount to much. Schroeder’s is about the only institution left with a reduced holding. Probably couldn’t get out if they wanted to. The risk is still pretty big and the reward is minimal. Would anyone take it over? I think that would have happened by now. Far better investments even in cyber security which has always been a bit mysterious and hard to value. Value is not really material when it comes to SWG. You could turn a quick profit here or just go down the bookies which would be far more fun

[owenski] 26/12/2024 08:46

Having a first time look at this, one concern is that the CFO is formerly from GFIN, a complete failure of a business, doesn't fill me with confidence, anyone have an opinion on this.

Cash position seems to fluctuate a lot too.

[solarno lopez] 24/12/2024 09:06

Me too someuwin

[hastings] 24/12/2024 08:58

Agree with you!

[someuwin] 24/12/2024 08:53

Been building up a position here. Could be a top performer in 2025 from this lowly level.

[northwards] 24/12/2024 08:16

Judging by online quotes, the overhang might have been cleared. Let's see.

[boadicea] 20/12/2024 15:49

The late reported dump of 169000 at 31p on 27th Nov would leave mm's with stock they didn't want and at the minimal turnover in SWG that would last some time. Hence the current discounting against the published quotes I suppose.

Again, if one takes a quick glance at the visual representation of the historic figures on the advfn Financials tab you would immediately mark this as Avoid. So we are not likely to get a spontaneous quick uptake by private punters until a turnround begins to show in the figures or it gets a few mentions in some widely read publications. Even then, there don't seem to be many punters actively searching for bargains atm.

However, the best time to get in is before any upturn becomes widely recognised. Only time will tell whether we may be sensing a false dawn.

Incidentally I note that the 2pm auction produced the surprisingly high settlement of 39.6p. Not sure what this might imply.

[northwards] 20/12/2024 12:55

We get a reasonably positive mention in Paul Scott's podcast today.

[bdbd11] 20/12/2024 12:29

there's definitely an overhang. I just did a small top up of 2500 shares at 38.2 on a 38-40 spread. Volume very low given the news and value. Unloved :(

[northwards] 20/12/2024 11:22

I believe there was an overhang from a few weeks back. Could be a bit more to clear of that. Once out the way, could see a strong move up.

[techno20] 20/12/2024 10:50

Agreed, my 7,500 buy @ 38.4 is logged as a sale.

[boadicea] 20/12/2024 10:26

I was rather hoping there wouldn't be any more significant dips from here!

PS: A test quote for a reasonable quantity produced 38.5p to buy, so some of the sells shown on advfn must really be buys.