Shearwater Share Discussion Threads

[lammylover] 22/11/2023 17:21

Thank you for the link to your article Martin, most informative.

[igoe104] 22/11/2023 16:34

Excellent writeup Martin, thanks for posting..

[weatherman] 22/11/2023 15:46

Surely they need to develop an AI angle to security software - look at the money flowing to DARK, which is disrupting the market place.

[hastings] 22/11/2023 15:44

Caught up with management this morning and a worthwhile half hour chat.
A fairly brief write up, but I intend a follow up in due course!
Anyway, hopefully of some interest to others.

[lammylover] 22/11/2023 13:57

SWG with 23.76m shares at 47p/share is now worth £11.17m market cap.
That with net cash at end Sept 23 of £2.2m.

Last year's H1 net cash was £0.9m, but share price was 90p....valuing business at £21.38m.

Some de-rating that, especially as H1 Revenue for both years are similar.

Yes they need to deliver on the pipeline of opportunities in H2, but current share price too low and oversold, surely?

[earwacks] 22/11/2023 10:36

Well Ian. It’s pretty simple IGP talked the talk and the numbers stack up to prove it . SWG talk the talk and erm, where is the recovery? It’s actually marginally worse than last year and another loss. They talk about delayed orders and burgeoning pipelines but the numbers do not lie. 35 percent drop in 22 year end and this year the first sim months is marginally down on previous two interims that were considered a disaster. The cash balance is slightly improved but only baca use they lost nearly a million last year on exchange rate. So that cancels that out. Really would have expected some sign of recovery evidenced in the numbers not more small talk. One interesting new contract, but would have hoped that would be on top of existing contracts not replacing old ones. 41 new clients? Are they getting a free service or something?

[igoe104] 22/11/2023 10:27

Cavendish £1.05 price target.

Shearwater Group has reported interim results for the period ended Sep 2023. The results show stable progress following the challenges of the prior 6-month period and the company maintains a comfortable net cash position. The company states that it remains on track for FY March 2024E in spite of a still-challenging market. We maintain our forecasts and our 105p price target.

[ianhamo] 22/11/2023 09:29

Why are companies such as Intercede going from strength to strength and producing record revenues?

[weatherman] 22/11/2023 09:21

Hopefully get offer at 100p

[rimau1] 22/11/2023 09:18

Yes, fair to say there is downside risk at these levels now

[northwards] 22/11/2023 08:49

Yes, that's my take on the update. Cautiously optimistic. And encouraging to see cash level September to October. Software growth has the potential to deliver straight to the bottom line. It's all about delivery now.

[rimau1] 22/11/2023 08:46

Fair enough reaction i think we rose too fast yesterday. For me the outlook tone is more cautious than at the interims in the summer and we need to convert the deferred deals to meet expectations. Cash outflow nicely explained and stabilised on October.

[igoe104] 22/11/2023 08:43

Sidam the big jump in 2024 figures is probably down to this..

These included a leading British mobile network operator, a prominent European Cyber Managed Security Services Provider (MSSP), an international retail chemist and cosmetics company and an essential security services contract for a UK government department. These clients generated a total contract value of GBP5.5m which is being recognised in FY24.

[lammylover] 22/11/2023 08:36

Hopefully new interim CFO will buy some shares, seeing the potential here.
Also expecting a more inspiring Investor Presentation on Friday 1230.
- New CFO, new more focused business. Fingers crossed!

[igoe104] 22/11/2023 08:11

Breaking into UK government in a big thing, once they like and get used to your product they will roll it out across other government apartments hopefully..

[sidam] 22/11/2023 08:09

If cavendish numbers are correct, there is plenty to go for. eps 4.5p for this year and 7.1 p for next. March 25 free cash flow yield 19.7% at 45.5p. Those suggest the shares could double over the next year. I hope I am right, but as always DYOR

[lammylover] 22/11/2023 07:54

Gradually turning things round...r

Results to end Sept 23.
- H1 rev £10.5m v H1 Last Year £10.8m
- Ad. EBITDA £0.6m v £0.1m* (was a charge here due to lack of FX hedge)
- Adj. loss before tax £0.1m v loss £0.5m
- Cash £2.2m v £0.9m

Services side looking strong and this accounts for 90% of business turnover.
- Revenue up 2%, margin up to 25%, costs down.
Software side ailing:
- Revenue down 29%, margin flat, costs down

Restructured business = Xcina merged into Brookcourt Solutions. Taken £0.2m hit on redundancy costs.
Since Sept have won £1.3m Govmt Agency contract (why wasn't this issued as separate RNS?)

Overall "expect to meet full year expectations"

[chrisdgb] 22/11/2023 07:51

definite recovery in place........

[hastings] 22/11/2023 07:49

Gaining its first win through an essential security services contract with a UK Government Dept is a positive too.Looking forward to hearing more when I speak with them later today.

[igoe104] 22/11/2023 07:42

Highlight of results is 41 new clients hopefully that more client wins will start feeding to the top and bottom line..

[holdyournerve1] 21/11/2023 20:36

Possibly the seller is gone. If so should start to move upwards very quickly

[hybrasil] 21/11/2023 16:38

quite a move today

[northwards] 21/11/2023 16:06

Stock pretty tight it seems.

[northwards] 21/11/2023 15:48

Let's see what tomorrow brings.