Shearwater Share Discussion Threads

[sphere25] 21/1/2021 16:52

Not a great start here for the higher risk speculative play. Clearly the sellers are still outstripping the demand for the shares. Schroders have taken a decent bite here and it remains to be seen whether they or anyone else will add in significant size. Price looks rangebound 140-160 atm awaiting further news. The bullish noises were coming out to suggest the operating cash flow could get back into a position where they weren't burning cash. That is the play here and then building from that base to warrant a re-rating. Market clearly still sceptical but let's see what the next update brings. Interesting and more challenging one than the majority for sure! All imo DYOR

[boadicea] 19/1/2021 11:52

This continues to look weak. I am trying to work out whether this is based on fundamentals (= a warning to steer clear) or technicals (= a good buying opportunity) caused by a keen/distressed/urgent seller. The accumulation by Schroders tilts me towards the latter view. A possible minor explanation for current softness may arise from the shares issued last September as deferred settlement to the former owners of GeoLang. However the quantity, 0.55% of the equity and worth about £200k at current sp, is not that great and should not amount to a significant impediment.

[earwacks] 12/1/2021 16:31

As pointed out yesterday if only IAG had signed up Shearwater. Could have saved themselves millions

[jh59] 12/1/2021 13:14

Same here Husbod, have managed to average down to £1.85, but at the moment with the market cap at £37.25m, the share price works out to about 1.65. I do sense a surge of optimism, with Schroeders adding to it. I think I’ll add more on news of any further substantive sales.

[linton5] 12/1/2021 11:35

I've joined you guys here looks a bargain to say the least,right out wi the dogs in the sun

[channel pirate] 12/1/2021 11:16

Every time I add some more here, albeit only a very small amount, the share price dips some more. I also have a substantial paper loss Husbod. Think the answer to kick-start a decent rise would be for Shearwater to announce that they have won some really big contracts rather than the contracts that have smaller financial returns albeit over several years duration !!

[jh59] 11/1/2021 16:06

Despite vowing not to buy any more Shearwater stock, just couldn’t resist it! Communication from the company seems much improved of late. Revenue needs to keep growing, but I still have high hopes!

[earwacks] 11/1/2021 16:04

More positive news. IGP have won a new contract for USA air defence announced today.Plenty of work to go round it seems. Security was a good area for VPN and private security last year but these guys are into more specialist repeat government and company contracts, where they can get sued for breaches of security and massive fines. Cheaper to get protected apart from anything else! Once the figures start rolling up I can see well over £2 again. Fingers crossed

[northwards] 11/1/2021 15:48

Yes, that's quite a chunk from them.

[sphere25] 11/1/2021 15:01

Well, that's interesting. RNS out to show Schroders have increased their holding from 8.78% to 11.92%. That will certainly help clear out the sellers holding this back. IF Schroders do what they did at PRES and buy aggressively to clear out the sellers then this has a chance of popping like PRES did. I don't know whether that is going to happen but IF they do, there might actually be some cause for bullishness. Who'd have thought that eh! All imo DYOR

[sphere25] 08/1/2021 13:19

Thank you Husbod. Hand has been forced here by those large exchanges to take a position. It's one of those illiquid ones that can run away easily. Not come across this one prior but added it on a watchlist in light of bullish recent news and just how far it had been beaten down so a possible recovery contender. Sentiment is clearly hammered here with the market cap down to £39m. Of what I can glean in terms of a higher level view is that pre-covid forecasts were for for £49.9m sales and a £1.5m profit though they did £33m in sales with a loss of £1.3m last year. That resulted in EBITDA of £3.4m. The operating cash flow pre working capital of £2.7m suggests some cause for optimism. The previously mentioned delays and bigger sellers have clearly clobbered the price but the interesting thing is how buyers in size have now come in on the back of recent news. That MIGHT be the first indicator of a bullish turn here as sellers finally meet their match. The recent update suggests the whole picture has turned with the delays having unwould and "bouoyant" trading in October, November and continuing into December. This company appears to be in a sweet spot and recent news suggest a turning point. The past is the past. The big question naturally is whether investors see a turning point now and whether sentiment is hammered enough here to allow a bottom to have been put in? The standout buying today suggests it might have. It's clearly not a home run but if they keep what appears to be rather bullish trading momentum going with more contracts announced too, perhaps this is reasonable speculative play with significant upside potential to what appears to be a really beaten down and unloved market capitalisation. There have been quite alot of these types of unloved shares recently and nearly all have moved well in this market so perhaps it will feed through here too. If you look around the market too, you'd say this was actually rather cheap in the current climate. Market is quite bonkers in some areas atm though. That's my two pennies worth. Let's see if there are any more interesting exchanges and how the next updates pan out. Speculative higher risk play. All imo DYOR

[husbod] 08/1/2021 11:27

Welcome Sphere. We're all a bit jaded here so it's good to have some new blood. Fairly confident you've made the right decision.You're probably aware of the fact that the reason for the fund raising was tohave the money for acquisitions and as yet nothing has happened although the company has stated that it has targets in mind. It is not prepared to overpay, or so it says, but peeps have become impatient at the lack of news.

[sphere25] 08/1/2021 11:18

Sellers might have been cleared so I've had a high risk chart play go and bought the breakout. Placing in 2020 was at 240p but it's this rampant market and previous spikes that have swayed the decision. There are some monstrous spikes out there so perhaps there is a possibility of one here. As always all imo DYOR

[sphere25] 08/1/2021 10:32

A long way off the highs this. The recent news appears to have stirred some interest with buyers in size coming in for a significant chunk of the company today with a 556k and a 552k exchanged. Clearly there are sellers in size on the other side which have dragged the price down to these levels and prevented any move higher. Unfamiliar with this one and only glancing over the numbers. The chart looks interesting but was this forecast to turn a profit prior to the pandemic? Going concern suggests the next 12 months might be ok: "The Directors have reviewed a detailed reforecast of trading which includes a cash flow forecast for a period which covers a period of trading to March 2022 which demonstrates that the Group is able to pay its debts as they fall due. In addition to this, the Directors have reviewed a highly sensitised reverse stress test scenario which has assumed the removal of all new business revenues across both segments of the Group, a reduction of renewal rates in our software division to 60%, scaling back of revenues within our Services division leaving just critical managed services revenues and already contracted revenues. Costs have been scaled back sensitively in line with the reduction in revenues. Overall the sensitised cash flow forecast demonstrates that the Group will be able to pay its debts as they fall due for the period to at least 31 March 2022." Could be an interesting high risk chart play but unsure of the market's perceptions on cash flow here. All imo DYOR

[earwacks] 07/1/2021 13:58

2 renewals and 3 new contracts announced in last few days seems pretty good. Don't know if that includes the 2 million contract for next financial year. They seem to be on fire. Lets hope they are not only on target now but can smash it!

[husbod] 06/1/2021 16:42

Disappointing day after the bright start. Not sure why people would sell now but hey ho that's the way it goes.

[husbod] 06/1/2021 08:24

Good start to the day. A big new contract win as opposed to a renewal. Hopefully the first of a number of contract wins as news spreads.

[igoe104] 06/1/2021 07:34

Another nice contract win, with a new customer.

[thewheeliedealer] 04/1/2021 23:49

Hi all, My mate Peter @Conkers3 and myself did a ‘Twin Petes Investing’ Podcast a few days ago and part of our discussion includes SWG which looks quite an interesting situation. We also chatted about loads of other Stocks and Ideas for research and a fair bit of educational stuff with regards to Investing and Portfolio Management. Anyway, if you use Youtube, Apple, Audioboom, Overcast or Spotify you can find it under the 'Conkers Corner' Channel (you want Podcast TPI 39) and you can find it on Soundcloud at the link below. I hope you enjoy it and find it useful, we try to keep them light and they are totally unscripted, not like all the stuffy financial fodder you are probably more used to !! Happy New Lockdown !! WD @wheeliedealer hTTps://soundcloud.com/user-479955511/conkers3-wheeliedealer-39-2064-profit-aph-clin-merc-pdd-axs-som-itm-adm-swg-vle-ai

[northwards] 31/12/2020 10:57

I just wonder if we are close to acquisition news. The timing of that trading update surely could have waited until next week. I wonder why directors felt the need to get it out between Xmas and NY? To nudge the share price up a little ahead of a possible fund raise. To show a suitor that progress is strong.