Shanta Gold Share Discussion Threads

[338] 13/7/2020 15:37

Keep the faith 🚀

[lowtrawler] 13/7/2020 15:34

We're in a strange situation at the moment where our current market capitalisation is seriously below the value of current operations. Not only that, we are awaiting confirmation of the Kenya deal which, alone, may be worth more than our current capitalisation. Taken together, it seems obvious that we are due a major price correction.

[jc2706] 13/7/2020 14:56

On the face of it the Kenyan asset looks extremely attractive but I have no idea how prospective it is to assess just how much. Even based on what we know if looks like a useful addition but I will await the FS for clarity.

[redhill] 13/7/2020 14:44

Lowtrawler

Until the deed is done its probably in Shanta's best interests to keep any valuation under wraps.

[lowtrawler] 13/7/2020 14:41

It would be interesting to see someone try and put a value / timeline on Kenya. As has been said, a fortune has already been spent developing the assets but without any production. As a rule of thumb, the market value of gold assets should approximate 3x or more the cost to develop them. If 150m has been spent, you would hope for them to be worth 450m or more. That would clearly dwarf my current assessment of value to SHG but I have no idea how to approach obtaining a more realistic value.

[amazoner] 13/7/2020 14:08

millions buy orders on the back of those selling at offer price. 25p price target seems to low.

[redhill] 13/7/2020 13:34

Market Makers seem to have unlimited shares to sell at 14.75p !

[space_bob] 13/7/2020 13:25

Kenya is nice to have and when the deal is announced it will boost the price a few pence, but don't expect anything from it for a long time. Shanta have said they'll make a DECISION on it in the next 3 years and there will be many hurdles after that. Not sure why they've said three years but the previous owners spent $150 million over many many years without producing any gold. Singida and mine expansion at Luika are what will add value over the next couple of years.

[32campomar] 13/7/2020 13:20

Full 15p offer imminent

[338] 13/7/2020 12:35

Right now market valuation is only worth 5% of CEY... Ridiculously very low

[manrobert] 13/7/2020 12:33

14.75 now offered

[338] 13/7/2020 12:31

A reasonable math in line with my initial target of 48p... need someone to post another calculation to support the next target of 150p based on gold output in Kenya 👍

[lowtrawler] 13/7/2020 11:58

With last years net cash flows from Operating activities being $37.6m, we should be around $45m this year, simply due to gold prices. With no gold hedge, next year it should be over $60m. That's before you bolt on the Barrick deal and any further appreciation to the gold price

Our current market capitalisation is around $144m which is less than 2.5x prospective cashflow excluding Barrick deal. The Barrick deal is probably worth around $60m to market capitalisation and a reasonable prospective operating cashflow should be nearer 6x than 2.5x. Taking both together, you get 6x $60m + $60m = $420m which is around 40p. Effectively, this should be our fair price today.

If gold prices keep going up and the Barrick deal exceeds expectations, as many here think, we could easily see 50p in the not too distant future.

[amazoner] 13/7/2020 10:22

25p by xmas will be nice

[stmellons28] 13/7/2020 10:05

Sum nice trades going through today, can we hit & break 15p ? In a few weeks we all be saying why didn’t we top up at 14p.

[32campomar] 13/7/2020 10:02

Market makers definitely need stock with that bid price

[lowtrawler] 13/7/2020 09:36

The bid price is actually 14.56 just now, just quoted for 50k.

[amazoner] 13/7/2020 08:59

wake up shonto wakey wakey

[32campomar] 13/7/2020 07:48

Gold has bounced for a 3rd time off $1800, this is surely now a new floor and very bullish going forward

[redhill] 12/7/2020 17:12

Lowtrawler

That principle you mention has actually been in law for years. The delay has always been in the fact of agreeing what has been claimed is correct.

[lowtrawler] 11/7/2020 19:10

The important thing, in my view, is that they have established a principle to offset VAT against corporation tax. This should make it possible to recover all amounts due over the next 5 years. As always, we will need to see if the principle holds.

[jasper2712] 11/7/2020 13:20

The "normalisation" is that you keep paying the VAT but don't expect to get it back unless we decide to give you a token gesture now and again so that you cannot say you don't get refunds!
At least $20m now owed and counting. I have actually stopped looking at the amount because the board seems the have written it off as have many shareholders.
Probably sitting in a offshore account somewhere.

[338] 11/7/2020 12:31

What is the direct impact to Shanta Gold: normalisation of VAT has been reinstated in July for miners? It will be nice if Shanta also start receiving more VAT refund.

[stmellons28] 11/7/2020 08:36

Eric the CEO of Shanta tweeting 😃

[lowtrawler] 10/7/2020 20:12

Net cash flow in 2019 was just under USD 38m and so 40m looks like an understatement for this year. Source: annual report & accounts