Severfield Share Discussion Threads

[grupo guitarlumber] 23/4/2020 10:18

1.0512CHF
-0.0004-0.04%

[waldron] 23/4/2020 06:45

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0515CHF
-0.0001-0.01%

[sarkasm] 22/4/2020 10:56

EUR/CHF Outlook: Huge SNB Currency Intervention Slows, Breakout Ahead?
Apr 22, 2020 11:30 AM +02:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
EUR/CHF Analysis and Talking Points

Slowing SNB Intervention Signals Tolerance for Lower EUR/CHF
Option Markets Caution Downside Risks
Eyes on Eurogroup

SNB Intervention: Historic volatility across multiple assets amid the coronavirus led recession. However, one pair that has remained muted, albeit with a modest grinder lower, has been EUR/CHF. Among the contributing factors is intervention by the SNB to stem the appreciation in the Swiss Franc. This has been signaled by rising sight deposits, which recently rose to its highest levels since the aftermath of the 2015 EUR/CHF peg removal. In turn, this likely signals that the SNB has an unofficial peg in EUR/CHF at 1.05.

CHF Strength is Here to Stay: With that being said, the past couple of weeks have shown that the SNB’s intervention has only slowed the appreciation in the Swiss Franc as opposed to reversing its gains. As such, with downside risks remaining, particularly due to the collapse in oil prices, safe-haven flows are likely to keep the Swiss Franc firm and thus putting further pressure for 1.05 to hold. Alongside this, perhaps more notably, the domestic sight deposits have slowed down over the past couple of weeks, which may hint that the SNB is winding down their activity in FX markets.

[waldron] 22/4/2020 07:44

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0530CHF
+0.0002+0.02%

[rhomboid] 21/4/2020 17:00

‘ Perhaps one might draw some infrerence about the ability of the two different types of investor to assess value‘

Agreed🙂

Ex holder here...like it a lot but prefer Billington...which incidentally has more cash in the bank than SFR ..which in these uncertain times is relevant

[cc2014] 21/4/2020 11:33

BILN is loved by the private investor. Reguarly ramped on Twitter etc.

SFR owned by institutions with hardly a PI apart from ex-employees.


Perhaps one might draw some infrerence about the ability of the two different types of investor to assess value.

[jadeticl3] 21/4/2020 11:11

So Severfield and Billington issue results on the same day. One shoots higher, the other falls. How come the same circumstances have produced such different results?

[ariane] 21/4/2020 10:11

1.0514CHF
-0.0001-0.01%

[owenski] 21/4/2020 07:21

Order book for UK and India sharply lower.

[waldron] 21/4/2020 07:10

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0516CHF
+0.0001+0.01%

[grupo guitarlumber] 20/4/2020 08:58

1.0516CHF
-0.0004-0.04%

[waldron] 20/4/2020 06:16

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0518CHF
-0.0002-0.02%

[waldron] 17/4/2020 21:20

Swiss Franc Demand Is Set to Increase, UBS Predicts
By Jan Dahinten
16 avril 2020 à 10:40 UTC+2
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In this article
UBSG
UBS GROUP AG
9.27
CHF
+0.41+4.58%
CHF
Swiss Franc Spot
0.9675
CHF
-0.0028-0.2886%
EUR
Euro Spot
1.0869
EUR
+0.0029+0.2675%

Investor demand for Switzerland’s currency, already trading at a five-year high, will increase as the country’s economy will outperform others during the recession, strategists at UBS Group AG predict.

“Switzerland enters this recession with excellent credit quality, and its pandemic health situation is under control,” UBS strategists Thomas Flury and Gaetan Peroux wrote in a note to clients. “Hence its economy should do relatively well in comparison to other regions.”The economic impact of a further decline of the euro against the franc should be limited, as Swiss tourism and many export sectors are already suffering from a drop in activity.

Read More: SNB Easing Would Catch Swiss Curve Off Guard

Only at a level of 1.03 francs per euro would the economy face more serious consequences, UBS said. The currency pair currently trades at around 1.052 francs.

The Swiss National Bank said last month it sold francs more aggressively in the foreign exchange market to push back against the appreciation.

Given the likelihood of a further weakening of the euro, investors should hedge their exposure to the common currency, UBS suggested.

[waldron] 17/4/2020 21:16

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0517CHF
-0.0001-0.01%

[waldron] 17/4/2020 06:19

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0527CHF
+0.0009+0.09%

[waldron] 16/4/2020 07:28

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0523CHF
-0.0002-0.02%

[florenceorbis] 15/4/2020 09:21

1.0538CHF
-0.0009-0.08%

[sarkasm] 02/4/2020 13:43

1.0553CHF
-0.0032-0.30%

[waldron] 27/3/2020 10:41

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0596CHF
-0.0031-0.29%

[la forge] 20/3/2020 18:04

1.0535CHF-0.0007-0.06%

[maywillow] 19/3/2020 13:10

thinking.com

Swiss central bank: More to follow
Author
Charlotte de Montpellier
Charlotte de Montpellier

Rates on hold, a modification of the tiering system and coordination with the government is what the central bank did today. But now more than ever, it is becoming evident that foreign exchange market interventions are the central bank's main monetary policy tool
In this article

Unchanged rate
FX interventions
Monetary and fiscal policy

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Unchanged rate

Today, the Swiss central bank decided to keep its key rate unchanged at -0.75%, as expected.

In addition, it has increased the portion of excess reserves that is exempt from negative interest rates for banks and it is considering easing the counter-cyclical capital buffer for banks. This means that the central banks wants to give banks more leeway so that they can provide financing to the real economy during the current coronavirus crisis.
FX interventions

The central bank has also recognised that the recent appreciation of the Swiss franc has forced it to intervene further on the foreign exchange market to help stabilise the situation.

The fact that the SNB acknowledges increased intervention probably means that it intends to continue to intervene intensively in the coming weeks and months

The SNB's intervention isn't really a surprise. The fact that it acknowledges increased intervention probably means that it intends to continue to intervene intensively in the coming weeks and months. Now, it seems even more clear that the foreign exchange market interventions are the central bank's main monetary policy tool. The question is how much longer will it be able to base its policy primarily on FX market intervention. At some point, things might get complicated.

Especially given the US Treasury has placed Switzerland on the watch list for "currency manipulators". An excessive increase in the reserves held by the SNB could lead to Switzerland being classified as a currency manipulator and subject to sanctions by the US.
Monetary and fiscal policy

It is interesting to note that the central bank expects "a pronounced decline in activity in Switzerland in the first half of the year" and estimates that GDP will probably be negative for the whole of 2020. We believe this is a warning for the budgetary authorities in Switzerland to take massive action.

The central bank also indicates that it is working closely with the Federal Council to support the Swiss economy. This is an important statement. It underlines that the SNB, probably even more so than all other central banks, has extremely limited room to support the economy and that coordination with the budgetary authorities is of paramount importance.

It is interesting to note that the central bank estimates GDP will probably be negative for the whole of 2020

We know Switzerland has very low public debt and has plenty of room for expansionary fiscal policies. We believe the SNB is clearly pushing for a massive fiscal plan and is ready to accompany it with monetary measures if necessary.

For the time being, the Swiss Federal Council has already put in place measures to support the economy and affected sectors (compensation for short-time unemployment, financial support for companies in need of liquidity, bank loan guarantees, compensation for losses, etc.) but these measures are relatively small in value (no more than 1.5% of GDP). The Swiss Confederation clearly has room to do more.

In our view, today's decision is likely to be an intermediate decision, and further measures are likely to be announced in the coming weeks.

It is unclear the kind of measures that are forthcoming but they will probably depend heavily on the fiscal measures taken. We cannot rule out a future rate cut, especially if the pressure on the Swiss franc builds. Right now, we're not ruling out other unconventional monetary policy measures too.