Severfield Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 20/12/2019 08:13

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0888CHF
+0.0007+0.06%

[waldron] 19/12/2019 17:51

1.0872CHF
-0.0025-0.23%

[waldron] 19/12/2019 15:48

1.0876CHF
-0.0021-0.19%

[cc2014] 19/12/2019 12:03

Buyers nibbling away at 88 and the larger sell trades yesterday and today seem to have no impact on the share price. Test comes at 90p I guess but my instinct says to not to sell there and wait and see what happens.

This is hard to explain but I have my feeling in my gut something has fundamentally changed above and beyond the election outcome and Trade Wars part 1 and a small pickup in the German economy.


now this is just conjecture and I hate these Boards for this type of unrumoured conjecture but I'm going to say it anyway but with so much infrastructure spend coming up and Sterling still so weak, any number of the better UK construction companies with a long term track record and wide open for a takeover. not that I want this to happen really. I'd much rather they churned huge profits over the next 5 years and I collect the benefit that way.

[waldron] 19/12/2019 06:58

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0909CHF
+0.0013+0.11%

[the grumpy old men] 18/12/2019 19:46

1.0898CHF
-0.0038-0.35%

[grupo guitarlumber] 18/12/2019 11:32

EUR CHF 1.0914 -0.0013

[waldron] 18/12/2019 07:41

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0921CHF
-0.0015-0.14%

[roddiemac2] 17/12/2019 18:07

There is good long term potential in the Indian joint venture: from small acorns---
Meanwhile they are doing well in traditional areas.

[wipo1] 17/12/2019 15:41

Looks like a nice breakout, I'm looking for at least 100-120p

[waldron] 14/12/2019 11:39

Swiss firms’ investments double abroad
This content was published on December 13, 2019 12:31 PM Dec 13, 2019 - 12:31
euro and franc

Most investments went to Europe
(Keystone / A3250/_oliver Berg)

Companies in Switzerland invested double the amount abroad in 2018 than the previous year, figures show. But foreign investors withdrew capital from Switzerland due to a US tax reform.

In 2018, companies domiciled in Switzerland invested CHF 61 billion abroad ($62 billion) (compared to CHF30 billion in 2017). Around three-quarters of the direct investment were from firms in the services sector, the Swiss National Bank said on Friday.external link

“Financial exposure abroad saw particularly large increases in the trade sector (CHF32 billion) and among finance and holding companies (CHF13 billion). Participations were a major focus of these investments,” the statement said.

Manufacturing accounted for CHF13 billion abroad, with the most significant share here in chemicals and plastics.

The bulk of the investments went to Europe, “notably to the two holding company locations of Ireland and Luxembourg as well as to the UK”. Swiss-based firms also undertook major investments in Central and South America (CHF18 billion) and Asia (CHF5 billion). However, net withdrawals of funds were made from subsidiaries in the US (CHF12 billion) and Australia (CHF8 billion).
Foreign direct investment in Switzerland

Investors abroad made a net withdrawal CHF52 billion (in 2017 the net investment was +CHF106 billion) - from Switzerland in 2018, the SNB reported. “This was the first such reduction in capital since 2005,” it said.

“As in 2005, the reason was a tax reform in the United States: US parent companies made use of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act to repatriate part of their equity reserves from subsidiaries in Switzerland. This was true in particular of finance and holding companies, which withdrew funds of CHF 32 billion,” the statement said.

“The various categories in the manufacturing sector as well as the majority of service-sector categories also saw net withdrawals. Some of these withdrawals, too, were linked to the US tax reform.”

Overall, stocks of foreign direct investment in Switzerland amounted to CHF1,296 billion.
dollars
FDI confidence
Switzerland falls in foreign investment ranking

Despite a slightly better score Switzerland has dropped four places as a destination for foreign direct investment over the next three years.
This content was published on May 13, 2019 10:21 AM

Keystone-SDA/SNB/ilj

[ariane] 12/12/2019 10:24

ING


12 December 2019Updated 13 seconds ago
The Swiss central bank is sounding rather dovish

As expected, the Swiss National Bank kept rates unchanged, but sounded a bit dovish revising its conditional inflation forecasts downwards. But as things stand now, it seems that no rate increase can be anticipated over the forecast period
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As expected, the Swiss central bank left its key interest rate unchanged at -0.75% and remains ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary. As with every monetary policy assessment for the last two years, it still considers that the franc is highly valued and that the situation on the foreign exchange market remains fragile.
Inflation forecast going even more down south

However, the central bank has revised its conditional inflation forecasts downwards, assuming the SNB's key interest rate remains constant at its current level.

It now forecasts an inflation level of 0.4% in 2019, 0.1% in 2020 and 0.5% in 2021. These downward revisions can be seen as a rather dovish signal from the SNB because the very low level of these forecasts implies that monetary policy can only remain extremely accommodative in the coming years. With inflation forecast at 0.1% in 2020, far from the SNB's target and capable of falling below 0% in the event of a negative shock, the SNB can only maintain its interest rates in negative terms and fight against the appreciation of the franc on the foreign exchange market.

As things stand now, it seems that no rate increase can be anticipated over the forecast period.

We expect rates to remain unchanged at its current level of -0.75% in the coming years. Nevertheless, risks are on the downside, which means that if the Swiss economy is hit by a negative shock or if the franc appreciates too much, the central bank could be forced to lower its key interest rate even further, possibly to -1%.

This is not our base scenario, but the risk of a fall in interest rates is ever present and the probability of this risk has slightly increased.

[waldron] 12/12/2019 06:20

economics
Swiss Defy Currency Gravity as ECB Cut Stays Unanswered
By Catherine Bosley
11 décembre 2019 à 06:00 UTC+1 Updated on 11 décembre 2019 à 12:31 UTC+1
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Explore what’s moving the global economy in the new season of the Stephanomics podcast. Subscribe via Apple Podcast, Spotify or Pocket Cast.

Switzerland’s central bank is once again challenging the forces of gravity in the foreign exchange market.
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The Swiss National Bank held its sub-zero benchmark interest rate unchanged this year despite a reduction in the euro area, as it judged gains in the franc as tolerable rather than warranting a mirror response. That raises the prospect that the difference in rates between the two jurisdictions might have become less relevant to the value of their currencies.
The franc didn’t move much after the ECB cut its deposit rate

The test for such a view may be how long Switzerland can stick to the current level of minus 0.75%, the world’s lowest along with Denmark, without cutting further and inciting more ire from banks. Led by President Thomas Jordan, the SNB’s experiment with subzero monetary policy is already about to hit the half-decade mark.

“Negative rates have muddied the waters,” said Gene Frieda, a strategist at Pimco. “It’s fair to say that a negative rate is perceived differently than a lower positive rate.”

To prevent the franc from appreciating against the euro, the SNB’s deposit rate has been at minus 0.75% since early 2015, and officials have repeatedly stressed the need to maintain the differential with the euro area. But when the European Central Bank lowered its deposit rate by 10 basis points in September, the Swiss didn’t follow suit.
Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan Address Annual Shareholder Meeting

Thomas Jordan

Photographer: Stefan Wermuth/Bloomberg

At the SNB, “they’ve tended to give the argument of the rate differentials rather more than less weight,” said Adriel Jost, an economist at consultancy Wellershoff & Partner. “If this rate differential were as paramount as they say, they would have had to take a different decision.”

The franc’s recent relative calm partly reflects that the ECB’s much-anticipated rate cut was largely priced in ahead of the decision. The Swiss currency appreciated about 4% against the euro between May and September, when it hit a two-year high around 1.08 per euro.

The franc was little changed at 1.092 per euro at 12:26 p.m. in Zurich on Wednesday.

Jordan and his colleagues are expected to keep the main policy rate unchanged and reaffirm their intervention pledge at their next meeting in Bern on Thursday.

Forecasts indicates the currency should weaken somewhat in 2020 and futures suggest the SNB won’t adjust rates at all next year.
Below Zero

The SNB's deposit rate has been at -0.75% since 2015

Source: central banks

Luke Hickmore, investment director at Aberdeen Standard Investments, says that at some point, market fundamentals will reassert themselves.

The differential between Switzerland and the euro area “can only get stretched so far,” he said. “It’s a bit like attaching an elastic band to a brick -- you can only stretch it only so far before it bounces back.”

Still, subzero monetary policy has clouded things. Reducing an already-negative rate of interest could be judged by investors to be contractionary rather than stimulative because it hurts banks.

Also according to David Bloom, global head of foreign exchange strategy at HSBC, looking at interest-rate spreads to gauge the path of G-10 currencies isn’t helpful any more, because low interest rates have upended how investors behave.

“The market and the way it views life is changing -- it’s undergoing a fundamental change,” he said.

— With assistance by Love Liman, Anooja Debnath, Charlotte Ryan, and Michael Hunter
(Updates with franc in seventh, eighth paragraph.)

[the grumpy old men] 04/12/2019 10:44

The Euro Is the Currency No One Wants to Own, Deutsche Bank Says
By Charlotte Ryan
3 décembre 2019 à 18:21 UTC+1 Updated on 4 décembre 2019 à 08:38 UTC+1

Bank says liquidity from euro area slowly replacing dollar
Euro weakness persists, defying swing in external accounts

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EUR
Euro Spot
1.1077
EUR
-0.0005-0.0451%
DBK
DEUTSCHE BANK-RG
6.42
EUR
+0.04+0.61%
GS
GOLDMAN SACHS GP
212.24
USD
-5.40-2.48%

The euro is encroaching on the dollar’s territory as the world’s currency of global borrowing, but that doesn’t mean anyone wants to keep hold of it.

“No one wants to hold euro cash as an asset anymore but everyone wants it as a liability,” George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank AG’s global head of currency research, wrote in a note. As a result, the euro zone “is emerging as the new global provider of liquidity to the international financial system, slowly replacing the dollar,” he said.

The common currency is increasingly being used in international borrowing, inter-bank funding and cross-border carry trades. This helps subdue the euro during periods of risk appetite, but could contribute to volatility and a rise in the currency when risk aversion returns.

The carry trade involves borrowing in a low-yielding currency and putting the money into others with higher interest rates, or other assets with stronger returns. It works well when volatility is low.

Euro-funded carry trades resulted in returns for all but three of the 23 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg, compared with 10 for dollar-funded trades.

Still, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has suggested certain dollar-neutral carry trades on the possibility the global economy will steady.
Getting Carried Away

Shorting the euro delivers returns versus most emerging markets

The euro has fallen more than 3% this year and volatility in the euro-dollar pair hit record lows late last month. The lack of price swings has been attributed to steady monetary policy outlook at the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, as well as fading recession fears.
Read More:

Euro May End 2019 in Comeback as Fading Carry Adds to Tailwinds
Goldman Sees Dollar-Neutral Trades as Way to Go After Fed Cuts

Deutsche Bank’s Saravelos argues that outflows based on the increased use of the euro as a funding currency for liabilities are keeping the currency subdued when risk appetite is high. The euro should have been appreciating against the dollar and moving closer to $1.40 over the last two years, he added. The common currency declined 0.1% on Wednesday to $1.1076.

“Despite the huge swing in the external accounts, the euro has stayed weak,” he said. “This is unprecedented.”;

[waldron] 28/11/2019 12:11

In this article

The ECB is presiding over a low growth, low yielding euro environment…
…making a 2017-like EUR/USD rally unlikely
Appealing characteristics of a funding currency
EUR is no longer cheap as its fair value has declined
German stimulus the key hope for the euro – but unlikely
Slowly creeping euro Japanization
Unexciting, uninspiring euro prospects with downside risks

[la forge] 23/11/2019 09:27

1.0994CHF
+0.0012+0.11%