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[waldron] 17/4/2020 06:19

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0527CHF
+0.0009+0.09%

[waldron] 16/4/2020 07:28

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0523CHF
-0.0002-0.02%

[florenceorbis] 15/4/2020 09:21

1.0538CHF
-0.0009-0.08%

[sarkasm] 02/4/2020 13:43

1.0553CHF
-0.0032-0.30%

[waldron] 27/3/2020 10:41

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0596CHF
-0.0031-0.29%

[la forge] 20/3/2020 18:04

1.0535CHF-0.0007-0.06%

[maywillow] 19/3/2020 13:10

thinking.com

Swiss central bank: More to follow
Author
Charlotte de Montpellier
Charlotte de Montpellier

Rates on hold, a modification of the tiering system and coordination with the government is what the central bank did today. But now more than ever, it is becoming evident that foreign exchange market interventions are the central bank's main monetary policy tool
In this article

Unchanged rate
FX interventions
Monetary and fiscal policy

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Unchanged rate

Today, the Swiss central bank decided to keep its key rate unchanged at -0.75%, as expected.

In addition, it has increased the portion of excess reserves that is exempt from negative interest rates for banks and it is considering easing the counter-cyclical capital buffer for banks. This means that the central banks wants to give banks more leeway so that they can provide financing to the real economy during the current coronavirus crisis.
FX interventions

The central bank has also recognised that the recent appreciation of the Swiss franc has forced it to intervene further on the foreign exchange market to help stabilise the situation.

The fact that the SNB acknowledges increased intervention probably means that it intends to continue to intervene intensively in the coming weeks and months

The SNB's intervention isn't really a surprise. The fact that it acknowledges increased intervention probably means that it intends to continue to intervene intensively in the coming weeks and months. Now, it seems even more clear that the foreign exchange market interventions are the central bank's main monetary policy tool. The question is how much longer will it be able to base its policy primarily on FX market intervention. At some point, things might get complicated.

Especially given the US Treasury has placed Switzerland on the watch list for "currency manipulators". An excessive increase in the reserves held by the SNB could lead to Switzerland being classified as a currency manipulator and subject to sanctions by the US.
Monetary and fiscal policy

It is interesting to note that the central bank expects "a pronounced decline in activity in Switzerland in the first half of the year" and estimates that GDP will probably be negative for the whole of 2020. We believe this is a warning for the budgetary authorities in Switzerland to take massive action.

The central bank also indicates that it is working closely with the Federal Council to support the Swiss economy. This is an important statement. It underlines that the SNB, probably even more so than all other central banks, has extremely limited room to support the economy and that coordination with the budgetary authorities is of paramount importance.

It is interesting to note that the central bank estimates GDP will probably be negative for the whole of 2020

We know Switzerland has very low public debt and has plenty of room for expansionary fiscal policies. We believe the SNB is clearly pushing for a massive fiscal plan and is ready to accompany it with monetary measures if necessary.

For the time being, the Swiss Federal Council has already put in place measures to support the economy and affected sectors (compensation for short-time unemployment, financial support for companies in need of liquidity, bank loan guarantees, compensation for losses, etc.) but these measures are relatively small in value (no more than 1.5% of GDP). The Swiss Confederation clearly has room to do more.

In our view, today's decision is likely to be an intermediate decision, and further measures are likely to be announced in the coming weeks.

It is unclear the kind of measures that are forthcoming but they will probably depend heavily on the fiscal measures taken. We cannot rule out a future rate cut, especially if the pressure on the Swiss franc builds. Right now, we're not ruling out other unconventional monetary policy measures too.

[waldron] 18/3/2020 16:42

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0536CHF
-0.0034-0.32%

[alphorn] 12/3/2020 08:40

I would be surprised if the SNB now took any drastic move with everything else going on this week?

[waldron] 12/3/2020 07:20

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0563CHF
-0.0014-0.13%

[grupo] 11/3/2020 15:23

1.0581CHF
-0.0024-0.22%

[wipo1] 11/3/2020 12:17

Good luck, looks a good home for your money, even more so with the interest rate cut announced today,I would still say fair value is nearer 100p, fingers crossed.

[diesel] 11/3/2020 11:13

Looks like a classic, support level bounce.

[roddiemac2] 11/3/2020 09:43

wipo ,

i managed to get 5,000 a few days ago. There is not much stock being traded here. I have added to an already large holding.

[wipo1] 11/3/2020 09:00

Looks a decent re entry point now?

[waldron] 10/3/2020 10:20

a lot of differences out there depending on who is buying and selling

come across par to 1.we live in turbulent times

enjoy your day

[alphorn] 10/3/2020 10:10

Have read that the SNB has been in the market trying to weaken CHF. May account for the moves recently?

[waldron] 10/3/2020 07:39

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0601CHF
+0.0014+0.13%

[waldron] 09/3/2020 07:39

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0573CHF
-0.0014-0.13%

[florenceorbis] 07/3/2020 16:42

1.0587CHF
-0.0039-0.37%

[waldron] 06/3/2020 07:49

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0606CHF
-0.0020-0.19%

[waldron] 05/3/2020 16:54

Swiss Haven Sees the Franc ‘Grinding Toward Parity’ With Euro
By Liz McCormick
and John Ainger
5 mars 2020 à 14:39 UTC+1

SNB’s ‘gorilla’ reserves add to safety appeal: Deutsche Bank
Concern over hit to global growth from virus lifting franc



The franc may hit parity with the euro for the first time since 2015, when the Swiss National Bank shocked markets by lifting its currency cap, according to Deutsche Bank AG.

The currency has been swept up in recent weeks with other havens as the coronavirus outbreak spreads fear through markets, taking it up 2% this year to about 1.06 per euro. The SNB may have stepped up interventions last month to stem the flow, yet Deutsche strategist Robin Winkler argues the “Swiss gorilla” of its nearly $800 billion in reserves may actually be a source of structural support for the currency.

“The balance sheet will only add to the Swiss franc’s ‘safe haven’ appeal in coming months,” Winkler said. “As central banks around the world use what policy space they have to deal with the virus shock, even an emergency rate cut from the SNB -- already priced -- may not prevent the euro-franc from grinding toward parity.”
Swiss currency is set to benefit from haven bid, Deutsche's Winkler says

The SNB declined to comment on Deutsche Bank’s view. Policy makers haven’t ramped up their rhetoric recently, continuing to call the currency “highly valued,” though reluctance to aggressively sell it may be partly driven by fear of being labeled a currency manipulator by the U.S.

The central bank lost much of its credibility to weaken the currency when the peg was abandoned five years ago, Winkler said. The franc surged as much as 41% versus the euro that day, and in the month prior the SNB had pledged “utmost determination” to defend its currency ceiling.
Read More:

SNB Isn’t Panicking About the Franc And Here’s a Reason Why
SNB Likely Stepped Up Battle Against Strong Franc Last Week
Swiss Franc’s Relentless Rise Takes It to Strongest Since 2015

The currency was steady at 1.0657 per euro on Thursday, having touched the strongest since 2015 at the end of February. In the options market, traders have been increasingly setting up bullish wagers on the franc in anticipation of coordinated central bank policy action. Demand for Swiss franc calls, which grant the right to buy the currency versus the euro, has surged relative to options that allow the opposite.

Swiss sight deposits have increased for seven consecutive weeks, a sign that the SNB may be taking action to counter the strengthening franc. While Toronto-Dominion Bank doesn’t see the currency reaching parity with the euro, it does expect further gains.

“From our perspective, we think this is a pretty clear sign the SNB is already trying to lean increasingly hard against further franc appreciation,” said Ned Rumpeltin, head of European foreign-exchange strategy at Toronto-Dominion. “In the absence of that, we are left to wonder if we would be at parity already.”
The Swiss National Bank’s foreign currency reserves near record

— With assistance by Robert Fullem, and Catherine Bosley