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[ariane] 24/8/2019 09:06

Dark Future for Euro Area as Nearly All Swiss Corporate Yields Go Negative
By Tasos Vossos
23 août 2019 à 10:13 UTC+2

Nearly all Swiss franc senior bonds trade at negative yields
Euro credit market hits milestones first seen in Switzerland

If you think credit markets in Europe couldn’t look more forbidding, think again.

Just look at Switzerland. Companies there entered the $16 trillion labyrinth of global negative yielding debt back in 2015. With almost all high-grade corporate bonds in Swiss francs now offering below-zero yields, the nation offers a cautionary tale for the euro zone.

[ariane] 16/8/2019 10:02

EUR CHF 1.0860 +0.0010

[waldron] 15/8/2019 07:09

EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0857CHF
+0.0014+0.12%

[alphorn] 13/8/2019 14:20

SNB must be evaluating any moves; getting too strong.

[adrian j boris] 12/8/2019 09:02

EUR: Italy could fuel more EUR/CHF downside

After deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini broke the governing coalition last week, we highlighted three possible political scenarios for Italy, also noting how the balance of risks for the EUR and Italian bonds was likely tilted to the downside moving ahead. During the weekend, former prime minister Matteo Renzi (of the Democratic Party) showed interest in forming a coalition with the Five Star to deliver the 2020 budget and avert a VAT tax hike. This option – which may provide some short-term respite to market concerns – has been fiercely opposed by the current Democratic leader (Nicola Zingaretti) and a large part of Democratic MPs. Nonetheless, Renzi still has a number of followers in the parliament and may ultimately have enough seats to govern with Five Stars. It would remain to be seen whether Five Stars would accept the deal.

All in all, we expect an eventful week in terms of Italian political developments, which may continue to fuel upside pressure on BTP rates. While EUR/USD will probably remain broadly attached to the 1.12 level. For now, we see room for more EUR/CHF downside towards the 1.08 region.


GBP: Elections uncertainty weighing on the pound

As prime minister Johnson’s revealed additional spending plans, speculation that he is preparing for new election has mounted. Uncertainty, whether elections will take place before or after the exit from the EU, is likely to keep weighing on GBP

[sarkasm] 10/8/2019 07:48

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0899CHF

[waldron] 09/8/2019 09:36

I would be luvin it

more euros from my swiss state pension

cheers

have a luverly day and weekend

[alphorn] 09/8/2019 09:32

Famous last words - #713, not yet. Some action will be taken IMO if current measures allow a fall towards parity.

[waldron] 08/8/2019 16:01

economics
Central Bank of Surprises Could Spring Swiss Rate Cut on Market
By Catherine Bosley
8 août 2019 à 06:00 UTC+2 Updated on 8 août 2019 à 09:38 UTC+2

Shock 2015 SNB news on currency cap roiled financial markets
Swiss benchmark interest rate is already the world’s lowest

Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars. Sign up here.

If there’s a lesson of history for when to expect the Swiss National Bank to ease its monetary policy, it’s this: don’t wait for a meeting.

[ariane] 07/8/2019 19:02

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0918CHF
-0.0018-0.16%

[ariane] 07/8/2019 18:55

Swiss Franc Rally May Stall as SNB Risk Is Back on the Radar
By Vassilis Karamanis
7 août 2019 à 12:25 UTC+2
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The franc’s latest surge may lose steam for now amid signs the Swiss National Bank is back in the market to rein in exchange-rate gains that eat into inflation.

The currency fell for a second day Wednesday after data showed that the SNB’s sight deposits, seen as an early indicator of its intervention, jumped last week in the second consecutive sizable increase. Furthermore, an escalation in the U.S.-China trade war now appears better priced in, potentially reducing the haven bids that helped the franc beat all major peers in the past three months.

Technical charts and option pricing also seem to support this prospect.
Euro could enter mean-reversion mode on overstretched momentum

Against the franc, the euro completed a bullish candle chart pattern Tuesday, the so-called Morning Star, after it met support from its trend channel since May on Monday. Momentum studies are on the verge of sending a reversal signal while option traders are already positioned for the risk of a stronger Swiss currency, possibly leaving little room for further allocations.

Swiss Franc May Showcase its Haven Status as SNB Plays It Safe

To be sure, the franc may rise to fresh cycle highs versus the euro should a full-blown global currency war develop or demand for short positions in the common currency against emerging-market counterparts pick up again. Yet chances are that another big move may not materialize until the European Central Bank meets in September.

The franc gained more than 4% versus the euro in the past three months as investors sought safety in the Swiss currency amid global trade tensions that threatened to worsen an already downcast global growth outlook.

NOTE: Vassilis Karamanis is an FX and rates strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice

[adrian j boris] 07/8/2019 09:44

SNB’s Currency Reserves Rose in July, a Clue to Interventions
By Catherine Bosley
7 août 2019 à 09:31 UTC+2

Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars. S

The Swiss National Bank’s holdings of foreign currency increased last month, adding to signs it had intervened in the foreign exchange market to curb the franc’s strength.

[adrian j boris] 07/8/2019 08:29

Pressure returns on Swiss franc amid global uncertainty
This content was published on August 6, 2019 6:04 PM Aug 6, 2019 - 18:04
Swiss franc and euro coins

The Swiss franc has started to appreciate in value against other currencies, including the euro, once again.
(Keystone / Laurent Gillieron)

One knock-on effect of the escalating trade war between the United States and China is that the Swiss franc is becoming more attractive for investors – putting pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to come to the defence of the safe haven currency.

For much of July a euro bought at least CHF1.10. But the franc has strengthened this past month, trading at around CHF1.09 against the single currency in the last couple of days.

Several economists, including Janwillem Acket of the Julius Bär bank, believe the markets have been spooked by a ramping up of the China-US trade dispute. On Monday, tensions were ratcheted a notch by China allowing the renminbi to weaken against the US dollar.

However, a strengthening franc is bad news for Swiss exporters and the domestic tourism industry, which has been showing some positive signs recently.

According to Acket, the Swiss manufacturing sector has already dropped into recession, a scenario which has in the past prompted the SNB to intervene in currency markets, selling francs to buy up other currencies, bonds and investments.

While the SNB does not talk about its interventions in detail, one indicator is the amount of cash commercial banks park within its walls. This stockpile increased 3% to CHF583 billion ($597 billion) at the end of July – a strong hint that the SNB is at work.

Another defence mechanism is for the SNB to make the franc less attractive by lowering interest rates. And though these have been in negative territory at -0.75% for some time already, the US lowered interest rates last week and the European Central Bank has hinted at taking the same approach next month.

Acket believes that the SNB will be forced to act in similar fashion, possibly dropping rates to -1%, if the euro-franc exchange rate falls below CHF1.06.

Commercial banks in Switzerland have in turn started to pass on the negative interest rates to corporate clients. Switzerland’s largest wealth manager, UBS, is reportedly poised to charge ultra-rich clients negative rates from next year.

swissinfo.ch/mga

[waldron] 05/8/2019 06:17

The Times: Companies have reduced their sterling deposits by record amount as part of contingency plans before a no-deal Brexit; while the government has increased its net foreign currency reserves by 25% over the past year.

[grupo] 05/8/2019 06:01

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0898CHF
-0.0015-0.13%

[waldron] 02/8/2019 08:01

URCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.0952CHF
-0.0026-0.24%

[steelwatch100] 01/8/2019 11:11

Perhaps he had something to do with this statement in their results, if anything would put someone off placing orders with them it would be the thought that they would steal their clients'.

Also, the old highly profitable Atlas Ward factory is now just a glorified sub-let fabrication facility in a contracting market (not good), its AW ex md is now working for a direct competitor, the highly experienced design team also been poached by same competitor.

Sounds like they are sleeping on the job.


“Secondly, SPP, our new business venture at the Sherburn facility, commenced trading in April 2018. This business is allowing us to address smaller scale projects and provides a one-stop shop for smaller fabricators to source high quality processed steel and ancillary products. Notwithstanding the slightly softer UK market conditions, which have resulted in a lower than expected number of enquiries in the second half of the year, the business has secured and successfully delivered a number of orders to a variety of new customers. During this time, we have also gained more intelligence on both our competitors and customers in what is clearly a competitive and lower margin marketplace. Notwithstanding this....

[cc2014] 01/8/2019 10:22

Has the large seller finished? Certainly L2 has changed with the spread widening and buyers having to pay a price higher than we've seen for a while.

I certainly hope so. The last month or so on SFR has been a bit frustrating.

[cc2014] 01/8/2019 10:06

"Stepping down and leaving to persue other interests."

Suggests to me he hasn't been performing.

[steelwatch100] 01/8/2019 08:12

Uk MD to step down in Sept. Not a great indicator of current uk performance!

[grupo] 25/7/2019 07:43

EURCHF Rate Trades to Fresh 2019 Low Ahead of ECB Meeting
Jul 25, 2019 8:30 am +02:00
David Song

by David Song , Currency Strategist
EUR/CHF Rate Talking Points

EURCHF trades to a fresh yearly-low (1.0965) ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, and recent price action warns of a further decline in the exchange rate as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushes into oversold territory.
EURCHF Rate Trades to Fresh 2019 Low Ahead of ECB Meeting

The ECB meeting may keep EURCHF under pressure even though the central bank is widely expected to keep Euro area interest rates on hold as the Governing Council endorses a dovish forward guidance for monetary policy.

Recent remarks from ECB officials suggest the central bank will take additional steps to insulate the monetary union as the account of the June meeting insists that “the Governing Council needed to be ready and prepared to ease the monetary policy stance further by adjusting all of its instruments, as appropriate, to achieve its price stability objective.”