Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[farmscan] 20/7/2024 10:13

Who was it that bought 2.7 million shares @ £1.34 yesterday afternoon? Was it you bounty?

[mickinvest] 20/7/2024 09:13

SQZ's looks like that chart if you turn your phone 90 degrees :-(

[bountyhunter] 20/7/2024 09:03

Serica need to make an accretive acquisition outside the UK, just look what assets abroad did for Harbour.


This would be a good one, there's not many charts like this in the O&G sector..

[tabhair] 19/7/2024 13:32

I am probably going to get quite a few thumbs down's for this, but the more I look at Serica, the more I think it's not that cheap. I don't think it's expensive either, just not the screaming bargain it initially looks.

Between the fall in gas prices (down about 20% on average since 2023) and the full impact of the 78% tax that will be felt in 2025, I could see earnings halving based on current energy prices. In that scenario, a 23p dividend wouldn't be sustainable either, it would also have to half to about 10-12p.

Obviously I don't have a crystal ball, I can't predict what energy prices will do tomorrow, let alone in a year and a half.

[undervaluedassets] 19/7/2024 10:50

Why would you bother with the North Sea as things stand politically.

A lot of hard work and risk for literally no return.

[xxnjr] 19/7/2024 09:06

You mean "no more UKNS acquisitions"!

[imjustdandy] 19/7/2024 08:13

Hopefully a huge reversal here. The fact there will be no new licenses in NS might actually work in our favour if labour decide to work with all existing licensees. I'm hopeful for SQZ and at 1.33 it's worth the risk

[imjustdandy] 19/7/2024 07:39

Took another 12k down here.

[bountyhunter] 19/7/2024 06:59

More like kicked into the long grass than got away :) agreed no more NS acquisitions.

[sawney] 19/7/2024 06:56

Investing in the NS bar routine maintenance is absolutely pointless...

[xxnjr] 19/7/2024 06:46

Don't necessarily think the right kind of deal is out there just for the taking. May take a while to find the right opportunity. Would have thought SQZ would be looking in the 15K to 50K boepd range for starters. FWIW here's one that got away [yes I know it's 99% gas & only 11Kboepd!]

[imjustdandy] 19/7/2024 04:33

"We are rightly proud of our track record of growth and value creation, and we aim to repeat the same in the future. Unfortunately, recent and potential future increases in UK oil and gas taxes make that increasingly difficult. Consequently, while we remain watchful for opportunities in the UK that might be attractive despite this increasingly challenging context, we are also looking very actively overseas."I think you will see the U.K. assets leveraged as part of a transformational overseas acquisition.

[imjustdandy] 18/7/2024 07:35

Global economy is about to take off. Oil will be in big demand .

[imjustdandy] 18/7/2024 07:19

Bottom is well in here

[brucie5] 17/7/2024 18:28

Thanks Ken. Agreed.

[kenmitch] 17/7/2024 17:24

Hi Brucie.

We agree on the very strong investment case for Serica. It’s SO cheap on a PE ratio of 3 and a huge 17% dividend yield which could well be held. I’ve a full stake as the share price falls look so overdone.

e.g Stiffel say thst 95% of the market cap is generated in free cash flow across 2024-2026 with an assumed oil price of $70 a barrel.

And Investec point out the £121 million cash so they’ve firepower for M&A alongside the free cash flow generation.

Previous Chief Executive Mitch Flegg has gone and the new CE Chris Cox has recently spent £426,000 and then another £170,000 buying Serica shares.

Labour’s destructive North Sea policy looks priced in, and then some.

I also hold Harbour and their share price went up 30% on the Wintershall Dea acquisition.. The same could well happen to the Serica share price with a sensible overseas acquisition IF that becomes necessary. And outside chance that Serica could fall to a bid. Harbour is still cheap too, but PE is now about 7 and dividend 6.5%, compared with that 3PE and 17% dividend for Serica.

So with bad news priced in and anything better ahead not priced in, Serica fits the bill for those of us looking for shares (and Investment Trusts too on too wide discounts and big dividends) at stunning bargain prices and paying big dividends while we wait for potentially very big share price upside.

[sea7] 17/7/2024 15:19

ha brucie - like the chinese, indians or americans are likely to even care what the tiny little uk does.

we should be pumping as much oil as possible from the NS until such times as the Uk has its other energy sources fully in place and ready to take over - the only thing the uk is doing is virtue signalling at this point and stopping the NS, won't impact the climate one iota, as we will still be guzzling as much oil each day as we have been and will continue to do so for many years to come.

[brucie5] 17/7/2024 14:40

sea717 Jul '24 - 13:58 - 6708 of 6709
0 3 0
It amazes me that poeple call it a climage emergency -

a 999 call is an emergency - the climate is not.
--------------------------------------------------
This a SQZ board so I won't pursue it further than to say: you're conflating two things: firstly, the emergency, which is all too real. If you don't believe it, then I certainly won't persuade you, because that's for the science, which is overwhelming.

Then, the UK's part in it, which though small, as you point out, is significant, in that how we act is likely to compound with others, not least in the industries that we need to support and grow, with all the jobs and clean tech that that will entail. To sit on our hands on basis that we are a small player is economically as well as morally problematic. We are, like it or not, in the midst of a green tech revolution with price of renewables coming down all the time, triggering greater demand, requiring greater capacity, with consequent need for better storage and tech knowhow to do it. It would be as foolish to sit on the sidelines, as to declare in 1900 that since the horse had been the best means of pulling a vehicle for over two thousand years with no further technology needed, it would be foolish to invest in developing the ICE.

This links shows something of the scale of the current energy revolution in the UK. To be sure, it is a revolution, every bit as radical as the tech revolution of the 70s/80/90s. And it has to be.

Remember when you first went online, or sent an email?



But I'll leave it at that.

Views on SQZ very welcome.

[loglorry1] 17/7/2024 14:15

Politicians solve for votes and so the policy is rational. Can't see Labour changing much. LNG imports have bigger carbon footprint than coal so it makes no sense to kill off NS gas.

[sea7] 17/7/2024 12:58

It amazes me that poeple call it a climage emergency -

a 999 call is an emergency - the climate is not.

the blinkered just stop oil clowns protests in the UK over the use of fossil fuels, where we emit 1% of the worlds emissions, are about as relevant as complaining about someone lighting a wood fire, at the base of a volcano that has erupted, when compared to chinas 300 new coal fired power stations each year

[97peter] 17/7/2024 12:33

All, what do you think wind turbines and solar panels etc are made from? Yes oil!!! Plus I think Ed M will be reigned in when it comes to oil and gas!! We and the rest of the world will need it for the next 30-40 years. Plus we have 120 years of coal under our feet, which if we had kept our cleaned up coal power stations we would have had cheap and clean fossil fuel energy for 100 years, just like Australia and China etc.

[97peter] 17/7/2024 12:04

Enquest purchase on the cards in August!!

[tup2] 17/7/2024 09:16

Also worth noting that there are reckoned to be around 200000 jobs directly and indirectly reliant on Uk oil and gas, a lot of them will be highly paid jobs. The tax take from these workers and related businesses must run into billions.