Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[wallywoo] 17/7/2024 08:44

5% of fuel is vat. Then you have the 1000's of by products (only 45% of crude oil is made into fuel, the rest is made into 1000's of other products). From plastics to road surfaces and all in-between.

Society mostly don't understand this point. Just as they don't understand that we are in an over population crisis, that has caused an environmental crisis. I blame the just stop oil protesters. Their deluded feel good emotions, make them fuxk like bunnies - and of course condoms are made from latex which is made from crude (so they don't use them)!!!

[brucie5] 17/7/2024 08:42

wallywoo17 Jul '24 - 07:56 - 6700 of 6702.
-----------------------------------------

It's a difficult one. Some of your points I agree with, other not so much. We're in a (largely man made) climate emergency; it's real and as the phrase suggests, it's very urgent that we address it. We need to transition as rapidly as possible from fossil fuels to alternative sources of energy.

Within that context, there is strong argument for maintaining our own domestic O&G supplies while we make that transition; but it has to be balanced against the overwhelming need for the planet as a whole to cut their dependency on oil.

I imagine that many who support the case for oil for would deny that there is such an emergency, or that it is due to C02; and that is problematic and counter-scientific.

On the other hand, many calling for immediate end to oil extraction have the duty to explain how we are supply our present and project demand for energy without repeating the German mistake of getting rid of one danger (nuclear power stations) on only to resort to another far worse (brown coal). The law of unintended consequences tends to pursue the extremes of either side, because they do not consider the counter case.

For the record, I hold both DEC and SQZ; along with several green ITs, including GSF and NESF. We need energy, as I need income (!); and there will continue to be many different sources of it for years to come.

IMHO.

[mickinvest] 17/7/2024 08:27

You could add in about £8b vehicle excise duty. It's a huge hole to fill for electric vehicles or should I say impossible hole to fill without bankrupting the UK due to making it uncompetitive if it carries on down this route.

[stemis] 17/7/2024 08:09

If you work out how much oil users pay in tax (at the retail end - end users). Then work out how much tax is paid by producer's. You quickly realise that oil and gas is a massive earner for central government. Probably more than income tax, vat, and national insurance.

The figures aren't hard to find. OBR 23/24 forecasts for tax on producers - £5.2bn, fuel duty income - £24.7bn.

Compared to income tax - £279.2bn, NI - £179.2bn and VAT - £170.7bn.

So not even close.

[ashkv] 17/7/2024 06:41

UK acquisition only makes sense if it is at a value that SQZ is currently trading at or some compelling tax losses/assets along with acquisition to offset losses.

Tailwind tax losses/assets while significant don't appear to have moved the needle for the market in regards to the transaction...

Preferable to diversify outside the UK!!

[kernelthread] 16/7/2024 20:41

This should be making money hand over fist. But the share price isn't going anywhere if the money will all end up going to the tax man instead of the shareholders.

[dodgy_jammer] 16/7/2024 20:33

The share price is dropping continually despite upbeat opinions from some holders.We've heard talk about accretion for a long time but all we've seen is capital destruction. The share price has dropped 70% from peak and 50% since the 'transformational' Tailwind deal.It's time for the company's leadership to take action. No more procrastination.

[brucie5] 16/7/2024 16:58

yasX16 Jul '24 - 12:57 - 6691 of 6694
0 1 0
There is nil chance of this heading to 100p.
---------------------------------------------
Really?
There is always a chance.
Which is not to say that it will.
But that this is the stock market, not the department of weights and measures.

[ashkv] 16/7/2024 13:42

CEO has purchased GBP 600k at higher prices than today

From Surprised on the other forum ->

Investors Chronicle Today

No one knows a company quite as well as its directors, which is why it is worth keeping an eye on director buying and selling. New Ceo Chris Cox purchsed over £600k of SQZ shares.

Despite the energy industry’s gloom about Labour’s plans to bring in higher taxes and block new developments in the North Sea, investors are far more optimistic. Serica Energy (SQZ), one of the hardest hit by the windfall tax, was in the top-10 additions to Fidelity ISAs in June, alongside BP (BP.).

Serica itself has warned of the impact of the government’s plan to reduce tax relief for capital expenditure, which will “rapidly and terminally accelerate the decline in UK oil and gas production”, in the words of chair David Latin. But it’s not just retail shareholders who are optimistic.

“We see the market as more than discounting the impact of windfall taxes, with c.95 per cent of the current market cap generated in free cash flow across 2024-2026 at our $70 (£55) a barrel oil price forecast,” said Stifel analyst Chris Wheaton, not an advocate for Labour’s North Sea policies.

On an operational basis, 2024 has been good for Serica thus far. Production guidance has recently been reiterated at around 43,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), after successful well campaigns at the Bruce and Guillemot fields. The company also has net cash of £121mn, providing “significant firepower” for M&A alongside its free cash flow generation, argued Investec analyst Alex Smith.

[imjustdandy] 16/7/2024 12:41

CEO has purchased 500,000 pounds worth at 1.35. Follow the money

[imjustdandy] 16/7/2024 12:38

Added here today again at 1.33

[yasx] 16/7/2024 11:57

There is nil chance of this heading to 100p.

I have substantially increased my stake around these levels.

[ashkv] 16/7/2024 11:49

Repost of this thorough analysis of SQZ from June 2024

[pjackson2] 16/7/2024 11:42

I agree a gift at a quid.
I too would double my holding.

[ashkv] 16/7/2024 11:03

52 Week Low Yesterday 15 July 2024 at 132.2p

At 100p SQZ would be trading cheaper on most metrics than shaky ground Kurdistan oilers - GKP / GENEL!!! And net cash would comprise 31% of share price!!!

SP-> 100.00p
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 132.2p on 15 July 24-> -24.36%
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 271p on 18 Sep 23-> -63.10%
Brent-> $83.80
British Gas Prices (Next Month)-> £76.00
Shares Outstanding-> 390,457,635
GBPUSD-> 1.295
MarketCap GBP-> £390,457,635
MarketCap USD-> $505,642,637
Cash GBP (26 Jun 24)-> £301,600,000
Cash USD (26 Jun 24)-> $390,572,000
Debt (GBP) (26 Jun 24)-> £182,000,000
Debt (USD) (26 Jun 24)-> $235,690,000
NET CASH (USD) (26 Jun 24)-> $154,882,000
NET CASH % of SP/Market Cap-> 30.63%
Net Cash Component of SQZ Share Price-> 30.63p
Enterprise Value (In USD)-> $350,760,637
2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]-> 43,000
SQZ YTD Production [Year to 23 June 2024]-> 43,781
Production Actual 2023 [Guidance 2023 Mid-Point (40-45kbpd)]-> 40,121
Enterprise Value/Barrel 2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]-> $8,157
EV/Barrel SQZ YTD Production [Year to 23 June 2024]-> $8,012
EV/Barrel Actual Average 2023 Production-> $8,743
Decommissioning Provision (Per FY 23 Results)-> $150,906,350
EV/Barrel Mid-Guidance 2024 Production including Decommissioning Provision-> $11,667
(9p+14p) 2024 Full Year Expected Dividend Yield-> 23.00%
SQZ Net Payout Yield (Dividend + Buybacks (2024 GBP 15Mn) + Special Dividends) -> 26.84%
SQZ + Tailwind 2P Reserves as of 31 Dec 23-> 140,000,000
SQZ Combined Enterprise Value/2P Reserves-> $2.51

[ashkv] 16/7/2024 10:43

100p would be a gift and would have me doubling down!!!

Key is some clarity from the Labour Government.

Also the deal the new CEO is going to announce - this is a given!!!

That he has put over half a million quid of his own after tax cash in SQZ at levels above today's share price does give me confidence that perhaps after a down dip an upswing is likely!!!

[davethehorse] 16/7/2024 09:57

100p on the cards here imo...

[creditcrunchies] 16/7/2024 06:20

Yes true this is pretty brutal going from a 450p takeover to pretty much 100p now shareholder value destroyed. They obviously took their eye off of the ball so how on earth is this company going to fix this mess is the question?

[ashkv] 15/7/2024 10:20

Crazy what destruction Mitch Flegg has inflicted on this share - now nearly half the net cash value prior to disastrous epic debacle deal for Tailwind.

Any board member that remains and voted for this travesty should be sacked!!! Mitch Flegg should be sued for his lapse of fiduciary oversight!!!

[ashkv] 15/7/2024 10:18

From Surprised on the other forum ->

Investors Chronicle Today

No one knows a company quite as well as its directors, which is why it is worth keeping an eye on director buying and selling. New Ceo Chris Cox purchsed over £600k of SQZ shares.

Despite the energy industry’s gloom about Labour’s plans to bring in higher taxes and block new developments in the North Sea, investors are far more optimistic. Serica Energy (SQZ), one of the hardest hit by the windfall tax, was in the top-10 additions to Fidelity ISAs in June, alongside BP (BP.).

Serica itself has warned of the impact of the government’s plan to reduce tax relief for capital expenditure, which will “rapidly and terminally accelerate the decline in UK oil and gas production”, in the words of chair David Latin. But it’s not just retail shareholders who are optimistic.

“We see the market as more than discounting the impact of windfall taxes, with c.95 per cent of the current market cap generated in free cash flow across 2024-2026 at our $70 (£55) a barrel oil price forecast,” said Stifel analyst Chris Wheaton, not an advocate for Labour’s North Sea policies.

On an operational basis, 2024 has been good for Serica thus far. Production guidance has recently been reiterated at around 43,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), after successful well campaigns at the Bruce and Guillemot fields. The company also has net cash of £121mn, providing “significant firepower” for M&A alongside its free cash flow generation, argued Investec analyst Alex Smith.

[fandagle] 15/7/2024 07:57

The Boffins have been trying to refine Hydrogen as a fuel for almost 250 years and aren't much further forward, we are at the start of the renewables revolution and that will take another 100 years to sort out, believe me Hydrocarbons will be like Gold when they realise how much a fustercluck they have made of this debacle...

[spawny100] 14/7/2024 12:13

6679 I think it's madness to let our N Sea assets fade away over any time period. If oil and gas energy is completely withdrawn from the equation we'll see the Emperor with no clothes on; there is simply no way renewables can stand on their own two feet unsupported.

[slicethepie] 14/7/2024 11:39

Millibands political role includes energy security yet his stupid ideas risk us being even more dependant on overseas oil and gas. We have already witnessed a higher rise in electricity prices than the whole of Europe our only hope is some sensible colleagues quash his flat earth ideas. We need to invest in gas storage as a starter