Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[waterloo01] 15/6/2024 08:20

Interesting write up.

[plasybryn] 15/6/2024 07:51

Brilliant write up - can't believe he doesn't charge. I'm feeling quite good about Serica.Bring on the new CEOhttps://zerogcos.substack.com/p/serica-energy-tradition-meets-modernity

[ashkv] 14/6/2024 12:30

With a new CEO starting in July I would conjecture deals will follow in due course!!!

SQZ has bid for certain assets per news reports but their must be no material news re the same as quiet period with deals being evaluated :)

sawney14 Jun '24 - 12:32 - 6500 of 6501
0 0 0
..and implies no potential deals on the table...?

[davethehorse] 14/6/2024 11:45

Token gesture BOD buys really but hopefully puts a floor on the fall here for now

[sawney] 14/6/2024 11:32

..and implies no potential deals on the table...?

[cashisking76] 14/6/2024 11:28

Excellent News/RNS, always good to see the BoD adding/buying in here, also, any potential restraint in this respect (O&G) by Labour will only come after the elections and certainly not before; as we all know by experience, there are no legal obligations (but the electorate) for the parties to fully abide by their stated manifestos!

[loglorry1] 14/6/2024 11:16

The CEO/Chair/FD own almost none. The token gesture today shows that even more starkly. Just barely better than a kick in the nuts.

[yasx] 14/6/2024 11:08

I sense there was also the idea (misconceived) in the market that Labour may exercise some restraint regarding what they had previously proposed - in reality they have really tried to scupper the NS.

The realisation that Stammer/Milli-bland are intending to cause destruction sent the oil pays reeling.

[swanvesta] 14/6/2024 11:05

tompaul & ashkv,

Re IEA, there was also this:

[stemis] 14/6/2024 10:56

Labour's plans have been known for quite a while so it's odd that their manifesto has been taken as a surprise by the market. The FD was buying shares at 184.9p just a month ago so he clearly he sees them as good value, despite the increased tax environment, even at a much higher price...

[frazboy] 14/6/2024 10:39

Not particularly large dealings but they might not have had that much cash kicking around.Good value down here I think. Another sell off and I would be filling my boots, I'm hoping general nervousness will provide that opportunity.

[ashkv] 14/6/2024 10:34

Good stuff!!!

Nigel what is your view re SQZ participation in Buchanan? Wait until new budget / or announcement one way or the other prior to the same now that Labour position is broadly outlined in the manifesto?

Perfect timing for a new CEO to start in July 2024!!!

If SQZ share prices remain at such extreme low levels - new CEO can only look good going forward :)

[nigelpm] 14/6/2024 10:27

Director purchases as I suggested might happen yesterday.

[cashisking76] 14/6/2024 09:57

This is now clearly so oversold/undervalued by all indicators that I have a strong feeling that even post dividend payment share price here can easily be higher than where it is today, no Brainer for the brave/not so fearful IMHO.

[ashkv] 14/6/2024 09:24

It shouldn't drop to 130p - as it is already extremely undervalued!!!

FCF will depend on annual production and energy prices so still an open question for 2024

However, 2024 is Capex heavy as SQZ have taken advantage of the investment allowance to undertake workovers of the vast majority of their existing wells!!!

So with Tailwind Tax allowance and other allowances at least 50% of profit should attribute to share holders going forward even with EPL 3% increase and reduction of investment allowances!!!

Moreover, SQZ is bidding for assets outside the UK and the share price discounts all such possible growth avenues!!!

[loglorry1] 14/6/2024 09:16

So after the 14p divi it will drop to 130p (all things being equal) and has a well covered dividend of 23p so 17.6%. Obviously things can change but its pretty chunky at these levels. The free cash flow is not nearly as good though and obviously the divi can change.

[ashkv] 14/6/2024 09:11

Yes my bad - my figures showed the full year dividend yield close to 20% - I was just conveying as to recent ex-div date and related dividend amount which equates to 10%

loglorry114 Jun '24 - 09:46 - 6483 of 6486
0 0 0
"At today's price of 140p a yield of 10%."

Am I being thick (probably) but the total divi is more like 22p as interim is 9p so annual yield is a lot higher more like 15% when you adjust for the divi about to be paid and subsequent share price fall.

[ashkv] 14/6/2024 09:07

Kibes Ithaca no longer has such a high dividend!!!

Moreover, SQZ full year dividend if a repeat of 2023 would be 14p + 9p for a total of 23p!!!!

Ithaca has not given firm guidance as to 2024 dividend!!! Only a general outline post recently announced merger!!!

Moreover, Ithaca a 100% UK focused firm like SQZ on an EV/Flowing Barrel and EV/2p is far more highly valued that SQZ even taking into SQZ 50/50 Gas and Oil split!!! And SQZ is net cash whereas Ithaca remains highly leveraged not taking into account significant decommissioning obligations!!

[kibes] 14/6/2024 08:54

ashkv - you are right however I think if they go ahead with the 14p dividend the share price will be absolutely murdered afterwards, down to 100p perhaps but 120p anyway. Ithaca is at 122p and has a dividend around 20p.

[wolfofhounslow] 14/6/2024 08:53

It will drop 15% on the day

[loglorry1] 14/6/2024 08:46

"At today's price of 140p a yield of 10%."

Am I being thick (probably) but the total divi is more like 22p as interim is 9p so annual yield is a lot higher more like 15% when you adjust for the divi about to be paid and subsequent share price fall.

[holts] 14/6/2024 08:25

You would think with world events our Politicians, who are supposed to look after the country an£ it’s people , would have concluded that security of energy supply was important, but no their petty and slavish following of the eco agenda is leaving us open to disaster , it’s utterly irresponsible.

[holts] 14/6/2024 08:23

I think you are a day out with that

[mariopeter] 14/6/2024 08:22

May be I should run for government. Cut taxes in the North Sea to say 40%, reduce the tax rate to 35% for those who achieve scope 1 emissions below 1kg per BOE and set up a sovereign fund. Drill baby drill.