Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[davethehorse] 14/6/2024 11:45

Token gesture BOD buys really but hopefully puts a floor on the fall here for now

[sawney] 14/6/2024 11:32

..and implies no potential deals on the table...?

[cashisking76] 14/6/2024 11:28

Excellent News/RNS, always good to see the BoD adding/buying in here, also, any potential restraint in this respect (O&G) by Labour will only come after the elections and certainly not before; as we all know by experience, there are no legal obligations (but the electorate) for the parties to fully abide by their stated manifestos!

[loglorry1] 14/6/2024 11:16

The CEO/Chair/FD own almost none. The token gesture today shows that even more starkly. Just barely better than a kick in the nuts.

[yasx] 14/6/2024 11:08

I sense there was also the idea (misconceived) in the market that Labour may exercise some restraint regarding what they had previously proposed - in reality they have really tried to scupper the NS.

The realisation that Stammer/Milli-bland are intending to cause destruction sent the oil pays reeling.

[swanvesta] 14/6/2024 11:05

tompaul & ashkv,

Re IEA, there was also this:

[stemis] 14/6/2024 10:56

Labour's plans have been known for quite a while so it's odd that their manifesto has been taken as a surprise by the market. The FD was buying shares at 184.9p just a month ago so he clearly he sees them as good value, despite the increased tax environment, even at a much higher price...

[frazboy] 14/6/2024 10:39

Not particularly large dealings but they might not have had that much cash kicking around.Good value down here I think. Another sell off and I would be filling my boots, I'm hoping general nervousness will provide that opportunity.

[ashkv] 14/6/2024 10:34

Good stuff!!!

Nigel what is your view re SQZ participation in Buchanan? Wait until new budget / or announcement one way or the other prior to the same now that Labour position is broadly outlined in the manifesto?

Perfect timing for a new CEO to start in July 2024!!!

If SQZ share prices remain at such extreme low levels - new CEO can only look good going forward :)

[nigelpm] 14/6/2024 10:27

Director purchases as I suggested might happen yesterday.

[cashisking76] 14/6/2024 09:57

This is now clearly so oversold/undervalued by all indicators that I have a strong feeling that even post dividend payment share price here can easily be higher than where it is today, no Brainer for the brave/not so fearful IMHO.

[ashkv] 14/6/2024 09:24

It shouldn't drop to 130p - as it is already extremely undervalued!!!

FCF will depend on annual production and energy prices so still an open question for 2024

However, 2024 is Capex heavy as SQZ have taken advantage of the investment allowance to undertake workovers of the vast majority of their existing wells!!!

So with Tailwind Tax allowance and other allowances at least 50% of profit should attribute to share holders going forward even with EPL 3% increase and reduction of investment allowances!!!

Moreover, SQZ is bidding for assets outside the UK and the share price discounts all such possible growth avenues!!!

[loglorry1] 14/6/2024 09:16

So after the 14p divi it will drop to 130p (all things being equal) and has a well covered dividend of 23p so 17.6%. Obviously things can change but its pretty chunky at these levels. The free cash flow is not nearly as good though and obviously the divi can change.

[ashkv] 14/6/2024 09:11

Yes my bad - my figures showed the full year dividend yield close to 20% - I was just conveying as to recent ex-div date and related dividend amount which equates to 10%

loglorry114 Jun '24 - 09:46 - 6483 of 6486
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"At today's price of 140p a yield of 10%."

Am I being thick (probably) but the total divi is more like 22p as interim is 9p so annual yield is a lot higher more like 15% when you adjust for the divi about to be paid and subsequent share price fall.

[ashkv] 14/6/2024 09:07

Kibes Ithaca no longer has such a high dividend!!!

Moreover, SQZ full year dividend if a repeat of 2023 would be 14p + 9p for a total of 23p!!!!

Ithaca has not given firm guidance as to 2024 dividend!!! Only a general outline post recently announced merger!!!

Moreover, Ithaca a 100% UK focused firm like SQZ on an EV/Flowing Barrel and EV/2p is far more highly valued that SQZ even taking into SQZ 50/50 Gas and Oil split!!! And SQZ is net cash whereas Ithaca remains highly leveraged not taking into account significant decommissioning obligations!!

[kibes] 14/6/2024 08:54

ashkv - you are right however I think if they go ahead with the 14p dividend the share price will be absolutely murdered afterwards, down to 100p perhaps but 120p anyway. Ithaca is at 122p and has a dividend around 20p.

[wolfofhounslow] 14/6/2024 08:53

It will drop 15% on the day

[loglorry1] 14/6/2024 08:46

"At today's price of 140p a yield of 10%."

Am I being thick (probably) but the total divi is more like 22p as interim is 9p so annual yield is a lot higher more like 15% when you adjust for the divi about to be paid and subsequent share price fall.

[holts] 14/6/2024 08:25

You would think with world events our Politicians, who are supposed to look after the country an£ it’s people , would have concluded that security of energy supply was important, but no their petty and slavish following of the eco agenda is leaving us open to disaster , it’s utterly irresponsible.

[holts] 14/6/2024 08:23

I think you are a day out with that

[mariopeter] 14/6/2024 08:22

May be I should run for government. Cut taxes in the North Sea to say 40%, reduce the tax rate to 35% for those who achieve scope 1 emissions below 1kg per BOE and set up a sovereign fund. Drill baby drill.

[davethehorse] 14/6/2024 08:06

Free falling...

[ashkv] 14/6/2024 07:51

SQZ Ex-Div in less than 2 weeks - 1st of 2 Annual Dividends for 14p

At today's price of 140p a yield of 10%. Just based on the upcoming dividend and a full year Dividend yield approaching 20%

Assuming share price drops a further 14p from current share price of 140p when SQZ goes ex-div Enterprise Value for Mid-Guidance 43,000 boe/d a day is a paltry US$532 million nearly half of 2023 revenue of US$928 million and less than half of forecast 2024 revenue!!!

Enterprise Value at a share price of 126p for 43,000 Boe/d net cash SQZ is US$532 million - INCREDIBLY LOW CONSIDERING NEGLIGIBLE DECOMMISSIONING COSTS AND TAX ASSETS VIA TAILTRASH DEAL.

SQZ as a whole is now worth nearly 35% less than what it paid for Tailwind. THIS WHEN FLEGG AND SQZ BOARD SHOULD HAVE BEEN COGNIZANT THAT LABOUR WAS FAR AHEAD IN THE POLLS AND THEIR O&G POLICIES WERE ALREADY ANNOUNCED. Bonuses and shares should be clawed back from Flegg, Management and the SQZ Board!!! In a just world MF should be behinds bars!!!

SP-> 126.00p
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 140p on 14 June 24-> -10.00%
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 271p on 18 Sep 23-> -53.51%
Brent-> $82.50
British Gas Prices (Next Month)-> £83.50
Shares Outstanding-> 393,468,408
GBPUSD-> 1.273
MarketCap GBP-> £495,770,194
MarketCap USD-> $630,867,572
Cash GBP [Including GBP27.5mn of Decom security deposit reimbursed in 2024] per FY 2023 Results-> £291,000,000
Cash USD (31 Dec 23)-> $370,297,500
Debt (GBP) (31 Dec 23)-> £213,000,000
Debt (USD) (31 Dec 23)-> $271,042,500
NET CASH (USD) (31 Dec 23)-> $99,255,000
NET CASH % of SP/Market Cap-> 15.73%
Net Cash Component of SQZ Share Price-> 19.82p
Enterprise Value (In USD)-> $531,612,572
2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]-> 43,000
SQZ YTD Production [1 Jan to/Including 14 Apr 24]-> 45,400
Production Actual 2023 [Guidance 2023 Mid-Point (40-45kbpd)]-> 40,121
Enterprise Value/Barrel 2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]-> $12,363
EV/Barrel SQZ YTD Production [1 Jan to/Including 14 Apr 24]-> $11,710
EV/Barrel Actual Average 2023 Production-> $13,250
Decommissioning Provision (Per FY 23 Results)-> $148,284,425
EV/Barrel Mid-Guidance 2024 Production including Decommissioning Provision-> $15,812
(9p+14p) 2024 Full Year Expected Dividend Yield-> 18.25%
SQZ Net Payout Yield (Dividend + Buybacks (2024 GBP 15Mn) + Special Dividends) -> 20.37%
SQZ + Tailwind 2P Reserves as of 31 Dec 23-> 140,000,000
SQZ Combined Enterprise Value/2P Reserves-> $3.80

[ashkv] 14/6/2024 07:36

Tom Paul12 A few off the top of my head recentish recollections as to why I and most of those who are objective view IEA with a huge pinch of salt...

1) Can't even forecast yearly demand so future demand forecasts extremely low confidence. I caught Jeff Curie on Bloomberg TV H2 2023 describing how IEA's monthly reports have for the first 6-7 months of 2023 with each new monthly iteration revised upward full year 2023 demand. I verified the same and you can do so from the below link!!!



2) IEA forecasts out of line even with left leaning US government forecaster EIA. And of course the industry ->

3) Just this week a very non-realistic forecast of peak oil. A counterpoint / analysis of the forecast ->

4)Recently stating demand for 2024 is static to down while sneakily upwardly revising up prior year demand :)


IEA very much part of the liberal entrenched establishment Matrix!!! :)

tompaul13 Jun '24 - 14:52 - 6449 of 6474
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ashkv

Be careful with the !!! as you might run out of them. I would be interested to know why the IEA is held in poor regard.