Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[loglorry1] 13/6/2024 14:58

I've almost doubled up here down at 145p. The shares are clearly discounting a lot of bad news.

[truant2tb1] 13/6/2024 14:53

Massive buy

[davethehorse] 13/6/2024 14:24

Must be a huge short position here...

[tompaul] 13/6/2024 13:52

ashkv

Be careful with the !!! as you might run out of them. I would be interested to know why the IEA is held in poor regard.

[kibes] 13/6/2024 13:51

Have glossed through Labour's manifesto and find it a mixture of wishful thinking, twaddle and waffle. The most serious issue is their belief that Britain can become a 'clean energy superpower'. This crowd pleasing idea is complete nonsense in my opinion. But don't take it from me, take it from Vattenhall, the Swedish energy giant, which has pulled out of a wind farm development off the Norfolk coast, losing £500 million as a result, on the grounds that it is 'not economic'. And that is with current UK energy prices double those in the US! This is the sort of unviable project which 'GB Energy' will pitch into, led by the clueless Ed Miliband. And the money for this will come from taxing North Sea oil and gas to extinction.

[sawney] 13/6/2024 13:48

So..?...has he been stitched up...?

[nigelpm] 13/6/2024 13:48

I would imagine we will do.

[ashkv] 13/6/2024 13:48

Deducted the dividend of 14p from prevailing SQZ Share Price (SQZ goes Ex-Div in exactly 2 weeks on 24 June)

SP-> 133.48p
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 147.48p on 13 June 24-> -9.49%
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 271p on 18 Sep 23-> -50.75%
Brent-> $82.75
British Gas Prices (Next Month)-> £86.00
Shares Outstanding-> 393,468,408
GBPUSD-> 1.278
MarketCap GBP-> £525,201,631
MarketCap USD-> $670,945,084
Cash GBP [Including GBP27.5mn of Decom security deposit reimbursed in 2024] per FY 2023 Results-> £291,000,000
Cash USD (31 Dec 23)-> $371,752,500
Debt (GBP) (31 Dec 23)-> £213,000,000
Debt (USD) (31 Dec 23)-> $272,107,500
NET CASH (USD) (31 Dec 23)-> $99,645,000
NET CASH % of SP/Market Cap-> 14.85%
Net Cash Component of SQZ Share Price-> 19.82p
Enterprise Value (In USD)-> $571,300,084
2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]-> 43,000
SQZ YTD Production [1 Jan to/Including 14 Apr 24]-> 45,400
Production Actual 2023 [Guidance 2023 Mid-Point (40-45kbpd)]-> 40,121
Enterprise Value/Barrel 2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]-> $13,286
EV/Barrel SQZ YTD Production [1 Jan to/Including 14 Apr 24]-> $12,584
EV/Barrel Actual Average 2023 Production-> $14,239
Decommissioning Provision (Per FY 23 Results)-> $148,867,075
EV/Barrel Mid-Guidance 2024 Production including Decommissioning Provision-> $16,748
(9p+14p) 2024 Full Year Expected Dividend Yield-> 17.23%
SQZ Net Payout Yield (Dividend + Buybacks (2024 GBP 15Mn) + Special Dividends) -> 19.35%
SQZ + Tailwind 2P Reserves as of 31 Dec 23-> 140,000,000
SQZ Combined Enterprise Value/2P Reserves-> $4.08

[orchestralis] 13/6/2024 13:47

Will we see any directors buying

[nigelpm] 13/6/2024 13:47

I'd remind that Mitch was involved in meetings with Labour - he mentioned this on a previous IMC call - he also put his own money in with that knowledge.

[mrscruff] 13/6/2024 13:47

Many have sold. If you have consider adding a little to JSE in Asia and AXL in South America. Apologies for the bad etiquette. Needs must.

[ashkv] 13/6/2024 13:46

In which case a company can redomicile out of the UK... post a one time tax hit...

That is not going to happen - it would have already!!! But the UK wishes to attract firms to list in the UK!!! Only domestic production is bad not foreign :)

Also these firms pay taxes in their regions of operations so you can't double tax per treaties!!!

sawney13 Jun '24 - 14:32 - 6435 of 6440
0 0 0
Mmm...there's a problem with that...I don't remember the Bank windfall tax just being based on UK earnings....
Once they realise the goose is dying...they'll spread the net...

[davethehorse] 13/6/2024 13:43

100p coming here...imo...

[wolfofhounslow] 13/6/2024 13:41

Sell while you can

[spawny100] 13/6/2024 13:39

And there was me thinking the Starmer effect was already priced in....

[ashkv] 13/6/2024 13:39

SQZ in freefall - Ithaca for some strange reason holding up far better though more all in on the UK than any other oiler!!!!

[sawney] 13/6/2024 13:32

Mmm...there's a problem with that...I don't remember the Bank windfall tax just being based on UK earnings....Once they realise the goose is dying...they'll spread the net...

[ashkv] 13/6/2024 13:09

IEA is nonsense - not in sync with serious forecasters!!!

However, if investment allowances are not maintained at lower but reasonable levels SQZ management will focus on squeezing out existing production from UK assets and diverting any surplus funds to foreign acquisitions!!!

I would suggest SQZ suspend the dividend going forward, continue buyback and focus building up a war chest for foreign acquisitions in less onerous / hostile hydrocarbon nations!!!

[tompaul] 13/6/2024 13:06

This analysis by the IEA won't help.

[sawney] 13/6/2024 13:03

Gone private by the end of the year..??

[davethehorse] 13/6/2024 12:37

Will 150p hold...?

[yasx] 13/6/2024 12:33

Kibes,

Sums it up perfectly.

[sawney] 13/6/2024 11:30

That'll be in the small print...