Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[davethehorse] 13/6/2024 07:55

Tin hats needed here...150p?

[nigelpm] 13/6/2024 07:39

Manifesto out today - could be some volatility once announced if any surprises.

NS producers will need to combine for survival I suspect.

[ashkv] 13/6/2024 07:35

New 52 week low and with both yearly dividends included yield approaching 15.5%

Net Payout Yield which includes Buybacks at 17.45%

Flegg has inflicted a body blow on SQZ with the Tailwind debacle... shares are nearly half of where they were when the acquisition was announced. And nearly 30% below net cash value at that juncture!!!

SP-> 150.00p
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 150p on 13 June 24-> 0.00%
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 271p on 18 Sep 23-> -44.65%
Brent-> $82.25
British Gas Prices (Next Month)-> £85.50
Shares Outstanding-> 393,468,408
GBPUSD-> 1.278
MarketCap GBP-> £590,202,612
MarketCap USD-> $753,983,837
Cash GBP [Including GBP27.5mn of Decom security deposit reimbursed in 2024] per FY 2023 Results-> £291,000,000
Cash USD (31 Dec 23)-> $371,752,500
Debt (GBP) (31 Dec 23)-> £213,000,000
Debt (USD) (31 Dec 23)-> $272,107,500
NET CASH (USD) (31 Dec 23)-> $99,645,000
NET CASH % of SP/Market Cap-> 13.22%
Net Cash Component of SQZ Share Price-> 19.82p
Enterprise Value (In USD)-> $654,338,837
2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]-> 43,000
SQZ YTD Production [1 Jan to/Including 14 Apr 24]-> 45,400
Production Actual 2023 [Guidance 2023 Mid-Point (40-45kbpd)]-> 40,121
Enterprise Value/Barrel 2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]-> $15,217
EV/Barrel SQZ YTD Production [1 Jan to/Including 14 Apr 24]-> $14,413
EV/Barrel Actual Average 2023 Production-> $16,309
Decommissioning Provision (Per FY 23 Results)-> $148,867,075
EV/Barrel Mid-Guidance 2024 Production including Decommissioning Provision-> $18,679
(9p+14p) 2024 Full Year Expected Dividend Yield-> 15.33%
SQZ Net Payout Yield (Dividend + Buybacks (2024 GBP 15Mn) + Special Dividends) -> 17.45%
SQZ + Tailwind 2P Reserves as of 31 Dec 23-> 140,000,000
SQZ Combined Enterprise Value/2P Reserves-> $4.67

[creditcrunchies] 13/6/2024 07:35

These are just wilting as every day passes towards a Labour government

[yasx] 12/6/2024 14:51

Next he will be telling us how bad the Green Party outlook is for oil Co's in order to applaud the efforts of Labour.

[yasx] 12/6/2024 12:15

OilAl,

Chuckle chuckle.

Give me strength. I sense he has a Starmer poster on his wall, alongside a Penny Mordaunt portrait. One flip flops the other carried a sword - Stemis is very proud of both!

[oilinvestoral] 12/6/2024 12:11

Yasx he seems to have sussed out that we are the same person! Oh dear!!! Rent free is the right term it seems! The argument was only lost in your head ... lolHave a nice day ...

[stemis] 12/6/2024 11:57

That pretty much sums up the situation as far as I see it. I’m sure he’ll argue with himself if we left him to it

I seem to be living in your heads rent free. I hadn't posted here for over 3 weeks until you mentioned me in an attempt to reignite an old argument you lost months ago...

I'll leave you an YasX to mutter amongst yourselves (assuming you are really 2 different people...)

[oilinvestoral] 12/6/2024 10:35

OT - I see Pharos is inching higher OilAl - Radoff has increased his holding and stock is in fairly short supply.----------Yasx Yes the company is in the strongest position it has been in financially for half a decade! Stock is tightly held by the LT holders and is indeed in short supply (although our private equity/ Merlon friends have exited based on the annual report)! Waiting patiently for farm out and rig news for 125. Meanwhile, will happily take the divi ! With Jan on the way out and hopefully a shrewd operator at the helm , things are definitely looking up for the company!

[oilinvestoral] 12/6/2024 10:31

OilAl,I fear Stemis has the Richard Holden mindset - whatever the question or topic, he will answer with something not directly related to it. He then goes on to state he has not only answered the question, but has done so to the satisfaction of everyone and everyone can see that.-----YasxYep! That pretty much sums up the situation as far as I see it. I'm sure he'll argue with himself if we left him to it. SMH

[sawney] 12/6/2024 10:24

True but there has been a lot of shenanigans over candidate selection round the Country...basically left leaning One Nation Tories being parachuted in...locally,the Tory Association Chair has resigned because they were unhappy with the selection process..this is not an isolated case...

[stemis] 12/6/2024 10:07

Even more remarkable is his comment that he is a Conservative member despite the fact...blah, blah, blah

The country needs a centre right opposition (which excludes the fantasists of Reform). The less people who are directly involved in politics, the more the membership becomes concentrated on the extremists and elderly, out of touch members. The sort who voted Liz Truss as leader. My vote in the party might not count for much (as doesn't my £25 membership fee) but I'd rather do something than just sit by and moan on Serica's bulletin board...

[stemis] 12/6/2024 09:55

Labour have clearly stated in very clear terms what they plan to release in their manifesto re energy taxes! Have you bothered to read any of the links???

Then you'll easily be able to provide a link to Labour saying they would abolish brought forward losses

[yasx] 12/6/2024 09:34

I see Pharos is inching higher OilAl - Radoff has increased his holding and stock is in fairly short supply.

[yasx] 12/6/2024 09:31

OilAl,

I fear Stemis has the Richard Holden mindset - whatever the question or topic, he will answer with something not directly related to it. He then goes on to state he has not only answered the question, but has done so to the satisfaction of everyone and everyone can see that.

There is little point discussing what was said or not - even when faced with the actual verbatim response, he will deny it.

Even more remarkable is his comment that he is a Conservative member despite the fact he hates Brexit, claims they have been involved in nepotism, corruption, lies and incompetence - he has not yet decided to give up his membership - well, when will he decide to do that? When the party is all but wiped out? Why would you be a paying member of an organisation you consider to be incompetent and dishonest? By paying his membership, he is in effect propping up the alleged lies and incompetence.

I give up. That is the illogical behaviour of those with little insight into political affairs upon whom Starmer preys - these are the types that cheer his GB Energy guff.

[oilinvestoral] 12/6/2024 09:27

"Labour's policy on 'windfall tax' has been known for a while. I've never denied that it existed."----The above is literally your post less than an hour ago! Now you're saying we don't know what Labour will do because their official manifesto hasn't been issued? SMH! Which one is it??? Who's making it up as they go along? LMAOCouldn't make this stuff up ! lol

[oilinvestoral] 12/6/2024 09:25

"I'm not aware that Labour has suggested preventing the use of brought forward tax losses." ----Labour have clearly stated in very clear terms what they plan to release in their manifesto re energy taxes! Have you bothered to read any of the links???If you watch any media briefings or discussions with Labour front benchers they are not even hiding it anymore! In fact, I suspect things will be worse than what we all expect. I'll be referring to this post in a few weeks / months ... So again: I will be very cautious of using historic tax losses to justify the egregious acquisition!

[stemis] 12/6/2024 09:03

Not in the slightest.

Firstly, Labour's manifesto hasn't been released yet.
Secondly, I'm not aware that Labour has suggested preventing the use of brought forward tax losses. And just to clarify; they've never been able to be used against the windfall tax so changes to the rate and the investment allowance would make no difference to that.

You are just making it up as you go. No change there...

[oilinvestoral] 12/6/2024 08:53

My post which you had replied to stated that "I would be cautious of using tax losses to justify the egregious acquisition cost until Labour show their true colours! The link I posted outlining the previously issued Labour plans for the energy sector wasn't just about backdating (if you bothered to read it)! It was mainly (66%) about removing the investment allowance and increasing the EPL rate. Which is now pretty much in their manifesto! So my main point : " I would be cautious of using historic tax losses to justify egregious acquisition cost" still stands as Labour are likely to completely change the rules as I had suspected! Now confirmed in their manifesto! Hope this clears it up for you!

[888icb] 12/6/2024 08:31

Labour’s GreatBritish Energy plan to borrow £18.6 Billion will in reality be a Great Socialist Disaster because it is doomed to failure. There is absolutely no possibility that the UK can be renewables only by 2030 no matter how much money they spend. It is head in the sand stuff if you you don’t realise that when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow there is very little renewable energy produced and fossil fuels are required to keep the lights on. North Sea oil and gas can help provide energy security but Labour with Ed Miliband and his band of climate hysteria socialists will trash North Sea oil and gas. The British public and businesses are going to be paying higher energy prices. Just remember that over 80% of global power comes from fossil fuels.

[stemis] 12/6/2024 08:06

Except you…. See your previous posts on the matter.

You said they had backtracked from their more egregious plans and it was true because it was reported in the papers

I said that they'd backtracked on their plans to backdate the changes (post 6029). Of course, if you are referring to another post, please feel free to specify it..

[sawney] 12/6/2024 07:58

This is, believe it or not, an investment board...

Perhaps..but when such profound fundamental changes in the Energy industry are about to take place...it's difficult to avoid it...

Suffice to say...both Parties have trashed the North Sea including SQZ...

Prediction...with Labour's GB Energy Plan...I can see regular blackouts in the future, and energy will never be cheap....or even cheaper...