Forecast dividend dates added to the header..
Status___Type__Decl. date_Ex-div date_Pay date_Forecast
Forecast Final ....10Apr2025 26Jun2025 24Jul2025 14p?
Forecast Interim 09Sep2025 23Oct2025 20Nov2025 9p?
Forecast Final ....09Apr2026 25Jun2026 23Jul2026 ?
A potential 18% yield now at today's prices if dividend levels are maintained. |
This will turn when Ed gets found out and gets pumped out! |
"You reckon oil in the ground is going to make money for SQZ?"
If you have exclusive information that they have ceased all production completely, then probably not, but I get the impression that you are 'clutching at straws'. |
and gas
Realised gas price of 77p/therm in Q3 (average NBP price: 82p/therm), with the current NBP gas price of c.120p/therm meaning Q4 realisations expected to be significantly higher
Realised oil price of $71/bbl (average Brent price: $80/bbl), impacted by hedging positions that are set to unwind in Q4, allowing realisation of price closer to Brent |
The production numbers have fallen off a cliff.
You reckon oil in the ground is going to make money for SQZ? |
Zico when you say "the numbers are really bad", which numbers are you referring to specifically?
We are all aware of the outage on Triton and maintenance at Bruce being responsible for the lower figures, but these are only temporary and with Triton coming back on now, together with the new production from GE-05 we should be back to in excess of 50k boepd. Also the oil and gas not produced hasn't gone anywhere. |
Ashkv...the numbers are really bad. Slagging me off does not make thkngs better for SQZ.
Down again today...not surprising. |
Peters re your #7340. In the investor presentation at the interims they were keen to underline that the maintained interim dividend of 9p was a strong signal of their intention, if not of course a commitment, to maintain the full year dividend (which would mean 23p total with 14p final). While there have been some disappointments since then I expect them to stick to that.
Beyond this year things are more uncertain.
GLA |
 From Baron Investments
ANALYST COMMENTARY
Peel Hunt (buy, PT 297p)
There has been a reduction in output due to the gas export compression issues at Triton and this has also led to FY24 guidance being reduced
Serica is now targeting annual production of 37,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from its previously revised goal to deliver the bottom-end of its 41,000 to 46,000 daily barrel guidance range
Expects the challenging period in 3Q and 4Q to improve by year-end, but the cuts are likely to impact FY25 estimates as well
Repairs are now complete and production is set to resume this week but, while not anticipated, further interruptions are possible until redundancy with the gas export compressors is re-established in 1Q25
Sees a knock-on impact of around 5% to 10% to current FY25 production forecast
Jefferies (buy, PT 170p)
The production outage on the Triton floating production, storage and offloading vessel has lasted longer than expected
Lowers FY25 production forecast to below 40,000 barrels a day based on facility performance while increasing next year’s capital expenditure estimate
The relative positive of the update is confirmation Serica remains very active in M&A screening. Believes the firm has a renewed focus on UK North Sea given the recent outcome of the UK budget
Shore Capital
Triton accounted for around 32% of Serica’s net production in 1H24
Management is expecting to end FY24 with a modest amount of net debt given further scheduled tax and dividend payments, as well as likely timing of cargo liftings
Serica did strike more upbeat tone on UK fiscal environment now the UK budget has passed |
The production numbers look quite shocking. Dovidend will be cut and then some more when the tax losses are expended.
It really is bad. |
Seems like investors are strongly divided on the likelihood of a sustained dividend. A 16% yield is obviously very attractive but, as long as it doesn't get cut completely, even a halved yield of 8% is still pretty good. No need to panic.
pete |
Auctus Advisors Serica Research Note
I should have specified the name of the Broker who issued the research - though if you had clicked the provided link it would have specified the broker :)
Tygarreg26 Nov '24 - 09:27 - 7335 of 7338
0 0 0
Ie the positive broker note from ashkv |
A poster on this thread. Just a few posts above your one... |
Tygarreg: Who is ashkv? Internet search draws a blank. |
I would have thought it's all about the dividend at this level, if ASHKv's broker note holds good. On that basis some peeps may still choose to leave in favour of more immediate upside elsewhere.
Others will be feel they are being paid to wait.
;) |
Ie the positive broker note from ashkv |
Glass half full or half empty. We have vastly different views here. I like the extremely well documented positive one rather than these non documented bear ones |
This is really bad news. I think it coukd be a buy at 100p. Anthing over is blue sky.
Dividend will be cut and no ambition by BOD. |
If the dividend can be maintained, this is a steal. A share like this should not be on a yield of 16%. Happy to accumulate at these levels, and rake 16% p.a while waiting for it to re-rate |
Realised gas price of 77p/therm in Q3 (average NBP price: 82p/therm), with the current NBP gas price of c.120p/therm meaning Q4 realisations expected to be significantly higher
Realised oil price of $71/bbl (average Brent price: $80/bbl), impacted by hedging positions that are set to unwind in Q4, allowing realisation of price closer to Brent |
Pretty dire - disappointed |
From Surprised on the other forum ->
Broker note out ...Today 07:23
While our YE24 net has increased, we note UK gas prices (NBP) now stand at ~£1.20 per therm. With Russia cutting gas supplies to Austria, the fundamentals for UK gas prices in the near term are very strong. Serica continues to be committed to significant dividend returns. All else being equal, we continue to forecast >16% dividend yield for 2024. • We re-iterate our target price of £2.90 per share.
we forecast that Serica could generate ~US$500 mm of operating cashflow (post tax and interest) next year. Even assuming FY25 capex in line with FY24 (US$270 mm), this would lead to US$230 mm free cash flow. This leaves ample running room to fund a dividend at current levels (~US$115 mm) and/or make acquisitions. The new fiscal terms stability in the UK has generated multiple opportunities for the company.
Compressor at Triton back on line • The first compressor at Triton has been repaired and the platform is expected to be back online this week. This represents a few weeks’ delay but the restart will boost production materially.
With the recent addition of the B6 well (>5 mboe/d net), total production was already over 50 mboe/d on 2 October. Since then, the Gannet GE05 well has been tied-in and the EC1 well (Guillemot NW field) has reached TD (first production in 1Q25). Overall, we forecast that Serica could produce ~48 mboe/d in 1Q25
Valuation We have reduced our Brent price forecasts in 4Q24 and 1Q25 from US$80/bbl to US$75/bbl but have increased our NBP forecasts from £0.94/sh to £1.10/th in 4Q24. As we incorporate the later production restart at Triton, our Core (2P) NAV and ReNAV are broadly unchanged at ~£2.44 per share and £2.84 per share.
All else being equal, we continue to forecast >16% dividend yield for 2024. • We re-iterate our target price of £2.90 per share |
Shunted out Serica Ex-CEO Mitch Flegg should be sued and criminally investigated to determine if there was a side-deal for the TailTrash Acquisition - the lemon of all lemon deals continues with its nightmare RNS factory!!!
18% 2025 Expected yield at a share price of 131p!!!
If new CEO sorts out Operational Issues - SQZ is a steal :)
SP-> 130.40p
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 110.4p on 10 Sep 24-> 18.12%
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 242.4p on 27 Dec 23-> -46.20%
Brent-> $73.20
British Gas Prices (Next Month)-> £118.00
Shares Outstanding-> 390,426,423
GBPUSD-> 1.255
MarketCap GBP-> £509,116,056
MarketCap USD-> $638,940,650
Cash USD (30 Sep 24)-> $258,000,000
Debt (USD) (30 Sep 24)-> $231,000,000
NET CASH (USD) (30 Sep 24)-> $27,000,000
NET CASH % of SP/Market Cap-> 4.23%
Net Cash Component of SQZ Share Price-> 5.51p
Enterprise Value (In USD)-> $611,940,650
2024 Re-Revised Down Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance Down To 37kbpd from 41-44kbpd]-> 37,000
SQZ Average Production Up Till Q3 204 (30 Sep 24) -> 37,800
Production Actual 2023 [Guidance 2023 Mid-Point (40-45kbpd)]-> 40,121
Enterprise Value/Barrel Nov 2024 Re-Revised Down 2024 Guidance Production -> $16,539
EV/Barrel SQZ Average Production Q1-Q3 2024-> $16,189
EV/Barrel Actual Average 2023 Production-> $15,252
Decommissioning Provision (Per HY 24 Results)-> $133,200,000
EV/Barrel Revised Down Mid-Guidance 2024 Production including Decommissioning Provision-> $20,139
(9p+14p) 2024 Full Year Expected Dividend Yield-> 17.64%
SQZ Net Payout Yield (Dividend + Buybacks (2024 GBP 15Mn) + Special Dividends) -> 20.58%
SQZ + Tailwind 2P Reserves as of 31 Dec 23-> 140,000,000
SQZ Combined Enterprise Value/2P Reserves-> $4.37
Tax Losses to offset tax payables (Half Year 2024)-> $1,000,000,000 |
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