Looking good for a 110p entry.i dont wsnt to get too greedy.
Leave something for the next fellow. |
At least the higher gas price will compensate to an extent..
"..around 22,000 boepd of production is gas, benefitting from the current gas price of around 115-120p/therm." |
Triton maintenance is a shambles! It always has been! I was involved with the GE Turbine control upgrade's many years ago & the place was ran like an episode of Faulty Towers ! The compressors are old and require a Retrofit upgrade to reliable dry gas seals! Why are they changing the same unreliable seals running the risk of repeated failures especially during start up! And if it’s a slow roll issue with the Turbine/compressor speed they will trash the spare seals as well, this happens when the seal surfaces are the incorrect grade, basically the seals don’t separate and grind together, then they are Fekd! |
Oh dear, Triton out for repairs 2 to 4 weeks. Buying opportunity coming our way!!!! |
Not a good start for the day |
The trouble is that cutting the div also tends to lead to a drop in share price |
The share price is telling us that these levels will not be maintained. But, all the same, I am back in at 128p as of this morning. |
Forecast dividend dates added to the header..
Status___Type__Decl. date_Ex-div date_Pay date_Forecast
Forecast Final ....10Apr2025 26Jun2025 24Jul2025 14p?
Forecast Interim 09Sep2025 23Oct2025 20Nov2025 9p?
Forecast Final ....09Apr2026 25Jun2026 23Jul2026 ?
A potential 18% yield now at today's prices if dividend levels are maintained. |
This will turn when Ed gets found out and gets pumped out! |
"You reckon oil in the ground is going to make money for SQZ?"
If you have exclusive information that they have ceased all production completely, then probably not, but I get the impression that you are 'clutching at straws'. |
and gas
Realised gas price of 77p/therm in Q3 (average NBP price: 82p/therm), with the current NBP gas price of c.120p/therm meaning Q4 realisations expected to be significantly higher
Realised oil price of $71/bbl (average Brent price: $80/bbl), impacted by hedging positions that are set to unwind in Q4, allowing realisation of price closer to Brent |
The production numbers have fallen off a cliff.
You reckon oil in the ground is going to make money for SQZ? |
Zico when you say "the numbers are really bad", which numbers are you referring to specifically?
We are all aware of the outage on Triton and maintenance at Bruce being responsible for the lower figures, but these are only temporary and with Triton coming back on now, together with the new production from GE-05 we should be back to in excess of 50k boepd. Also the oil and gas not produced hasn't gone anywhere. |
Ashkv...the numbers are really bad. Slagging me off does not make thkngs better for SQZ.
Down again today...not surprising. |
Peters re your #7340. In the investor presentation at the interims they were keen to underline that the maintained interim dividend of 9p was a strong signal of their intention, if not of course a commitment, to maintain the full year dividend (which would mean 23p total with 14p final). While there have been some disappointments since then I expect them to stick to that.
Beyond this year things are more uncertain.
GLA |
 From Baron Investments
ANALYST COMMENTARY
Peel Hunt (buy, PT 297p)
There has been a reduction in output due to the gas export compression issues at Triton and this has also led to FY24 guidance being reduced
Serica is now targeting annual production of 37,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from its previously revised goal to deliver the bottom-end of its 41,000 to 46,000 daily barrel guidance range
Expects the challenging period in 3Q and 4Q to improve by year-end, but the cuts are likely to impact FY25 estimates as well
Repairs are now complete and production is set to resume this week but, while not anticipated, further interruptions are possible until redundancy with the gas export compressors is re-established in 1Q25
Sees a knock-on impact of around 5% to 10% to current FY25 production forecast
Jefferies (buy, PT 170p)
The production outage on the Triton floating production, storage and offloading vessel has lasted longer than expected
Lowers FY25 production forecast to below 40,000 barrels a day based on facility performance while increasing next year’s capital expenditure estimate
The relative positive of the update is confirmation Serica remains very active in M&A screening. Believes the firm has a renewed focus on UK North Sea given the recent outcome of the UK budget
Shore Capital
Triton accounted for around 32% of Serica’s net production in 1H24
Management is expecting to end FY24 with a modest amount of net debt given further scheduled tax and dividend payments, as well as likely timing of cargo liftings
Serica did strike more upbeat tone on UK fiscal environment now the UK budget has passed |
The production numbers look quite shocking. Dovidend will be cut and then some more when the tax losses are expended.
It really is bad. |
Seems like investors are strongly divided on the likelihood of a sustained dividend. A 16% yield is obviously very attractive but, as long as it doesn't get cut completely, even a halved yield of 8% is still pretty good. No need to panic.
pete |
Auctus Advisors Serica Research Note
I should have specified the name of the Broker who issued the research - though if you had clicked the provided link it would have specified the broker :)
Tygarreg26 Nov '24 - 09:27 - 7335 of 7338
0 0 0
Ie the positive broker note from ashkv |
A poster on this thread. Just a few posts above your one... |
Tygarreg: Who is ashkv? Internet search draws a blank. |
I would have thought it's all about the dividend at this level, if ASHKv's broker note holds good. On that basis some peeps may still choose to leave in favour of more immediate upside elsewhere.
Others will be feel they are being paid to wait.
;) |
Ie the positive broker note from ashkv |
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