Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[bomber13] 14/10/2019 19:45

In my view , the most exciting new news today is the announcement of a further step-out drilling campaign East and West of the Sao Chico mine to further evaluate the strike extensions announced in September 2018 , and with a subsequent exploration drilling campaign to test the geophysical anomalies near mine site , three targets to the East and one , the highly prospective 4 km/8 km Cinderella shear zone , to the West .

These targets have already been substantially derisked by a comprehensive induced polarisation programme , an all-embracing aero-magnetic survey , and the evidence of significant artisanal mining activity in drainage areas downstream of these tenements . Cinderella , for example , has a 8km magnetic and electromagnetic high dovetailing with a 4km chargeability high from IP .

It is worth revisiting the 20th September , 2018 RNS on Sao Chico because you will see there that step-out drilling had found grades up to around 3/4 of an oz per tonne at mineable widths 500 metres West of the Sao Chico mine , and in their underground drilling 100 metres below current mine workings they had found nearly 3oz per tonne at a width of 1.5 metres . Subsequent to this RNS , the results of the in-depth aeromagnetic survey confirmed and rubber-stamped all this prospectivity .

So , what you have in Serabi is not only a company growing gold production from 40/- oz to 100/- oz within 2 years at a blended AISC of no more than US$900 , but also a company with the organic exploration upside of a mid-tier gold producer .

[millwallfan] 14/10/2019 19:19

Some knowledgeable analysts are suggesting the current bull run has a long way to go over the next few years. One has even mooted up to $3,000. Yes there will Undoubtedly be the usual peaks and troughs along the way but hopefully we over time see higher highs and higher lows. Just imagine IF our production did get to 80k ozs in 2 years time and AISC sub $900 and PoG over $2,000 ............. I think all current holders would think we were in dreamland. Add a sensible P/E for producing miners of 8-10 and..... I won’t even dare to do a share price projection for fear of getting over excited and feinting.
Any views to bring me back down to Earth very welcome.

[tightfist] 14/10/2019 17:59

Hi rhuvaal,I would love to agree, but surely there is far too little available stock/spread for even the smallest most nimble ii player to get involved?Cheers, tightfist

[rhuvaal2] 14/10/2019 16:46

Logan' okay!

[ppvn] 14/10/2019 14:37

From the interview with Mike put up today on their website he's made it clear that the ore sorter should enable Palito and Sao Chico to get to nearly 50k oz / p.a.

Coringa has a 750tpd plant (as opposed to 500tpd at Palito) and they are going to be examining whether they can operate an ore sorter there too - so I'm not sure that will be the case...

[loganair] 14/10/2019 14:22

Most probably more like 80,000oz to 85,000oz out put once Coringa is fully up and running.

Do not need more insti's to get on board, even MH made a clear point needing less insti's.

[rhuvaal2] 14/10/2019 14:02

over 100,000 oz output and more insti's will get aboard

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/10/2019 13:47

Agreed. It's a very simple business case.

[ppvn] 14/10/2019 13:35

Would have a listen to the interview with Mike on Serabi's homepage.

Honestly can't understand anyone not being supremely confident here.

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/10/2019 13:09

We aren't expecting earth shattering results. This is a reliable plodder, that will double output in 24 months and substantially lower AISC, hence amplifying FCF / profit. New exploration targets could give us explosive news but the base line expectation should lead to a 300-400% rise in MCAP

[tightfist] 14/10/2019 12:49

Hi Loganair,Today's update was not earth-shattering for me; I think the CRUX interview was very insightful and far, far better in giving more background understanding (and pre-faced the Q3 results).Regarding majors, Anfield merged with two others to form Equinox and Palito was then too small for them. My memory of the August? comment is that SRB have their hands full with existing projects (I welcome MH realism?) and that a major MIGHT be interested in coming on-board to progress/resource the Anomalies concurrently - nothing more has been said, however.IMO we will see some ground geo-physics results (not only Au?) in the next few weeks to better focus the Anomalies drilling work which is to commence by year end. IMO with MH at the helm there is likely is to be good steady, methodical progress - fine by me! tightfist

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/10/2019 12:10

So the integrity of the Chinese Communist Party is no less than most developed nations leadership (current US president excluded)????

[loganair] 14/10/2019 11:54

Name me one politician or government who are open and honest with integrity and are not in it for what they can get out of it.

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/10/2019 11:46

They are just thinking about their next fib.

[loganair] 14/10/2019 11:16

China can wait it out, China are thinking generations ahead while Trump is only thinking as far as the next Presidential election.

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/10/2019 11:12

Chinese always move the goal posts and when contracted, fail to meet their obligations. Sooner they get knocked back 70 years the safer the world will be. Ticking time bomb.

[loganair] 14/10/2019 11:08

SRB giving Coringa 38,000oz when fully up and running with I believe Palito producing 44,000oz with ore sorter = 82,000oz gold miner is my base case scenario.

[ppvn] 14/10/2019 11:03

It was a great update for me, personally speaking.

We know that Palito and Sao Chico are capable of returning around 40k oz on an ongoing basis and that the ore sorter will add to this.

What excites me is the fact they are drilling four anomalies including the cindarella shear after they have finished the Sao chico drills.

I invested here on the basis of the company being cash flow break even but with excellent exploration potential - this year the POG has turned them into an increasingly cash positive producer. Coringa will increase this. However, if one of the four anomalies turns out to be a significant deposit then that can change the whole dynamic of this company. And they are drilling four of them!

Its exciting to see it coming together in so many ways.

[loganair] 14/10/2019 10:52

Price of Gold holding up well this morning, seems to me because the Chinese are saying they want more from the United States before signing phase 'One' of any trade deal.


For me, it was an OK update, not great and not poor.

[qs99] 14/10/2019 10:49

more than me: well said. With producing mine, POG still maintaining its high ground, drilling and new resource coming on stream in the next 12 months or so, this IMO looks like a great co. Would like forward looking increase on dividends tho to be evident from management.....DYOR

[morethanme] 14/10/2019 10:46

Great update, great progress. Happy to be invested and looking forward to the future.

Loganair: I view the forecasts the same as you and always assume the lower end of whatever is forecast and expect nothing more. Of course I will be happy if that is exceeded, but I think it is important not to have your head too far up in the clouds.

However even with the low end of forecasts and realist POG, I think the economics for the company are fantastic.

[paleje] 14/10/2019 10:40

Fwd PE less than 4 with Coringa producing and gold at $1275, not a bad base case.

Not sure where you got the 80-100oz estimate from loganair but in September CEO in interview said 80k oz both mines combined.

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/10/2019 10:20

MCAP GBP55M

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/10/2019 10:19

Blimey - glass half full guy!!!

[loganair] 14/10/2019 10:05

At the beginning of the year SRB forecast gold mine to be 40,000oz to 44,000oz.

Many posters posted they thought the upper end whereas I was dismissed a little for writing that I thought the bottom end is where SRB will be at the end of the year.

SRB latest forecast "The Company anticipates full year production for 2019 will be between 40,000 and 41,000 ounces."

This is why I still think SRBs 80,000oz to 100,000oz once Coringa in fully up and running will likely turn out to be the bottom end of 80,000oz.