Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[ppvn] 01/10/2019 09:32

Hey Logan,

Imo Shanta aren't necessarily the best comparison?

They carry a lot of debt, operating profit forecast to be lower in the next two years compared with Serabi ($10mm and -$1.9mm in 2020 and 2021 respectively).

Their market cap still higher and their EV more than double! Go figure!

[loganair] 01/10/2019 09:11

I look at Shanta Gold (SHG) being similar but slightly ahead of where SRB is.

Currently Shanta produces twice as much gold as SRB currently does and has a 45% higher market cap.

[sherry35] 30/9/2019 21:49

Not hard for the Jim Sinclair's of the world to predict a pullback in gold. SBI is holding very well under the bearish pullback. I have two more Au stocks in a similar steady state condition.

[tightfist] 30/9/2019 12:09

Yes, it's a gamble but we should be in a better situation to assess once they RNS the Q3 numbers (assuming they do), the committed CPR's land (assuming they do!) and the loan capex allocation.IMO it's the family intentions that are the biggest unknown. Cheers, tightfist

[ppvn] 30/9/2019 10:57

Agree with all the above re. the share price

On current production from Palito and Sao Chico the gold price imo now supports a price of around 130p conservatively to 150p once the Coringa acquisition is finalised and confirmed that there will be no dilution.

Once Coringa is built out it really changes the economics for the better, and the anomalies could give far more.

If Coringa is built out for around $20m and isn't dilutive, if the anomalies are indeed gold finds, and finally if gold stays where it is or indeed increases - I dont see why the share price couldn't multiply several times from here.

P/E reflects about 4x on next years metrics and that's just Palito and Sao Chico so either way it should comfortably double in the not too distant future imo.

[loganair] 30/9/2019 09:15

Had a look at ALTN, what puts me off is the very low grade of the ore, around 1/3rd of the grade SRB have.

[kennyp52] 30/9/2019 09:07

ALTN ... looks a bit of a gamble share ? Debt and no cash , no profit , no dividend ... but potential . Also down 18% today !

[littlepuppi7] 30/9/2019 07:54

Taking a look at altn. Thanks tight fist. Looks like srb 6 months ago, v exciting, and nice to see the bb back to normal here.

[mick1909] 29/9/2019 13:29

150p is too cheap 300p gets my vote

[borisjohnsonshair] 29/9/2019 12:56

Agreed but a valuation of way over 100p is based on today's production. That's why we have such an incredible future. I believe this is so underprice there's three scenarios - a) I don't know what I'm talking about b) it'll rise pretty quick to 100-120p or c) be taken over 100% but at 130-50p. I think "a" is the least likely but I would, if it's the right scenario.

[loganair] 29/9/2019 12:10

I understand that gold in the ground in a mine that is not producing is valued at around $35 per ounce.

Once Coringa starts actually getting the gold out of the ground that is when the value of the asset will really start to increase.

[borisjohnsonshair] 29/9/2019 11:59

Thanks. I'll have a butchers later.

[borisjohnsonshair] 29/9/2019 11:58

From Garby on LSE;This is the way I see it and PE of 8 is low and ignores the potential of Coringa in future, which could be sold - of course it won't be but it should add loads to the NAV / MCAP. Bloody confusing price at the moment. "Q3 just ended so my guess in simple terms;10 - 10500 oz for Q3 to meet guidanceAISC costs of $1085 or less as per last resultsGold price received must be $1385 or higher10000oz x $300 profit = $3mn / £2.5mn / quarterGoing forward £2.5mn x 4 = £10mnpe of 8 = £80mn/ 61.6mn fd You would expect the share price to be nearer 130pObviously future gold prices, the ore sorter, exploration, finance for Coringa, farm outs etc willeffect the share price dyor"

[tightfist] 27/9/2019 10:19

Hi BJH,O/T: If you think this looks crazy suggest you take a look at ALTN! Neatly summarised fundamentals in post #880 it looks IMO as though this is subject to a market overhang and share price suppression, similar to SRB a few months ago.DYOR, IMO it's a High Risk/ High Reward proposition, tightfist

[borisjohnsonshair] 25/9/2019 14:41

"Crazy" - you've got that right!!! PE of 10 is low and this is US$150M based on current productive mine alone. Zero for Coringa and zero for anything else. Mental.

[ppvn] 25/9/2019 13:48

The content of those graphs is generally fairly broad-stroke from previous experience of them!

What could be really interesting in the coming weeks and months is if there is actually another miner that can throw some resource into drilling the central anomaly and what that could kick up. As well as the anomalies that can be tackled by serabi themselves.

The organic growth of Palito, Sao Chico and Coringa is all excellent, but to me is the lesser of the exciting prospects with Serabi. Market cap has dipped back under £50mm and to me that's just crazy. Ah well, happy to sit and wait! Patience as ever!

[loganair] 25/9/2019 13:19

In SRB latest report or in their presentation there was a diagram with a full time line.

[tightfist] 25/9/2019 12:45

Hi Loganair,

Thanks for the clarifications. I am not actually sure we have yet been given a line-of-sight to 100kOz pa rate-of-travel? They were also talking on the PEA of a slower ramp-up?

But the key aspect is that it's stated to be non-dilutive; so patience should IMO be rewarded, even if it's a longer wait.

Cheers, tightfist

[tightfist] 25/9/2019 12:40

Whoops, wrong thread.....

[tightfist] 24/9/2019 22:38

Additionally they have also pushed-back the commencement of repayment of the Sprott loan; that, coupled with the rise in PoG and ongoing weakness of the BRL is improving cashflow and easing the way forward.

[therealapplegarth] 24/9/2019 18:20

SUB 60p in sights before next week now ! Over priced in my opinion and belongs in the gutters

[loganair] 24/9/2019 18:09

Two years ago SRB said in two years time they would be producing 100,000oz of gold which basically meant some time at the back end of this year, then they pushed in into 2020 and now further out into Q3 2021.

[ppvn] 24/9/2019 17:55

Hey tightfist,

I'm sure I saw an interview with Mike a while back that mentioned q3 but subsequently i think you're right - shifted back. I assume that's because they will now have plenty of cash to pay the final cash amount for the acquisition so perhaps not quite as pressing as you say.

Gold going north again at quite a clip. Wonder if it motors through $1,550 this time...

[therealapplegarth] 24/9/2019 16:01

This is SUB 80p tomorrow then SUB 60p lol ! Pass the sick bowl around you MUGS