Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[ironstorm] 10/10/2019 07:59

What an absolute corker.

Ore sorter is transformational in its own.

Coringa got the cash for the last payment and no dilution to bring into production.

Get�em while you can.

A very happy holder roll on next year

[loganair] 09/10/2019 22:16

Very good interview, 36 mins long - main points:

1. Ore sorter for Low Grade Ore - Palito:

- Full benefits from January 2020.
- Saves $1mln in production costs per year.
- Liberates 20% in the plant so able to put through more high grade ore which means an increase from 40,000oz to 50,000oz of gold mined. Almost all this extra revenue goes straight to the bottom line as profit.

2. Currently forecasting to make around $4.5mln profit for 2019. (Did not mention what price of gold for this forecast.)

Coringa:

1. $25mln to bring in to production which includes a 20% contingency.

2. AISC $800 to $850 per oz which will bring down the total ASIC for all gold mined to $900 to $950 per oz.

3. Already have the cash in the bank to make the final payment on the purchase of Coringa.

4. Will bring Coringa into production with debt.



Once Coringa in full production base case SRB mining 80,000oz per year and up to 100,000oz


Not looking for any further M&A until Coringa is fully up and running. When looking for any M&A looking at Open Pit for scale and to bring costs down.


85% of SRBs expenditure are in local Brazilian BRLs.


The two companies that dumped their SRB stock causing the share price to fall to 23p was an absolute blessing as was good for the liquidity of SRB stock as was pick up by retail investors going from 9% to now owning 17% of SRB while the other 83% is owned by long term institutional share holders.

Lots more steam left in the SRB share price.

[lessentin] 09/10/2019 20:38

There is a new video on the company website with Mike speaking to CRUX Investor. I can’t seem to get it to play on my iPhone, but think this is it here:


Haven’t had chance to have a listen yet (it’s 35 mins long)

[borisjohnsonshair] 09/10/2019 14:02

Chaps - I'll be here for 3-4 years or 500p, which ever is earlier.

[qs99] 09/10/2019 13:56

Likewise thanks and in for the long haul until market recognises value! This and CAPD are my latest golders. Stuck with CEY and SHG still....! DYOR

[ppvn] 09/10/2019 13:05

Great posts and I obviously heartily agree!

The potential here though for Coringa to come in with debt funding getting them to nearly 100k oz p.a. imo is pretty likely, then the anomalies at Sao Chico I guess are being explored to see whether opening a processing plant there is justified (tightfist you may have got more of a feel for that at the agm?) which would then be their platform to growth exceeding 100k oz pretty comfortably.

Then they could tackle the Cindarella Shear...

[tightfist] 09/10/2019 12:21

Totally agree. The underlying development/promise of Serabi is largely lost currently within PoG drivers. PoG vs AISC is common to all goldies; the impact of the SRB overhang IMO lingers on and company specific developments are on top of that.Cheers, tightfist

[morethanme] 09/10/2019 12:06

I think that the reason for the share price lies in the timing of the forced seller.

By bringing down the share price to the lows of 24p during May, just before gold sharply rose to the $1500s, the 3 fold increase in share price of Serabi looks like a response to the gold price increase. When in effect it was merely a correction in price after the forced seller's shares were cleared.

This is the reason I chose to invest in Serabi at a price of 70p after it had nearly increased nearly 300% from 24p levels and looked overbought. In effect it has yet to participate in the gold miners rally on the increased gold price.

If you look at the value of the company when gold was $1280 /Oz (excluding any value from: Coringa, exploration and the ore sorter):

Serabi producing 40,000 Oz/year - Assuming: AISC of $1100 /Oz - Profit of $180 /Oz
Annual profit of 40,000 * $180 = $7.2m (£5.9m)
With a P/E of 8 gives a market cap of $57.6m (£47.1m)
With 61.6m shares, a share price of £0.76

So right now Serabi is valued as a producer of 40,000 Oz at gold price: $1280, with no value given to the increased $1500 gold price, Coringa, the ore sorter, or future exploration. I plan to sit on this share for however long it takes to see the market revalue Serabi accordingly.

[borisjohnsonshair] 09/10/2019 10:58

CEY PE is 21

[loganair] 09/10/2019 10:53

Many share prices are often driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals.

How much is Serabi Fundamentally worth?

[borisjohnsonshair] 09/10/2019 10:16

Let's have a go on your wand!!!

[morethanme] 09/10/2019 09:47

Value can sometimes take a while to be recognized in the market and I am happy to sit tight until that day. I wouldn't want to be out of this share when that value is finally recognized!

[ppvn] 09/10/2019 08:47

I keep going over the financials here boris and I really can't find another that comes even close in terms of p/e, growth or exploration potential.

Baffling I agree, but it'll come good in time. Hopefully a short time, but we'll see!

[borisjohnsonshair] 09/10/2019 08:05

Weirdest share on the market. Way undervalued, rises in Canada over night and someone sells a few K on opening!!! WTF!

[borisjohnsonshair] 09/10/2019 07:19

Chart should stay similar or one could arbitrage in theory.....not practical but.... Anyway, hopefully signals 90p in London which would signal breakout to 100p. Nice timing to breakout as news time approaching. 150p for Xmas

[sherry35] 09/10/2019 01:35

Folks - Another 52 week high reached on the TSX by SBI. SBI closed today at $1.47 CDN on YUGE^^YUGE volume. I'm mean breath taking volume. I'm amazed at the TSX's ability to handle the trading action of 8,383 shares.

Anyways, it's another 52 wk high on this side of the pond.

[jswjsw] 08/10/2019 23:16

It's actually 1.35 / 1.49 in Toronto, which in GBX is 82.5 / 91 - so rather different spread!
j

[lessentin] 08/10/2019 20:32

Risen to a 1yr high today on tsx (cad 1.49 = 91p) albeit on low volume

[morethanme] 08/10/2019 11:43

I have been expecting gold to pull back significantly over the last month to the $1420 levels before retesting the $1560 level. I have been surprised at how resilient the price has been, even during the China golden week last week. Looking very good for the long term gold price trend.

[ppvn] 08/10/2019 11:11

Gold showing fine support and indeed looks like its consolidation around $1,500 could be completing. Ready for a fresh move up with luck, and just at the right time for Serabi.

Quiet here for the moment - nobody seems to want to buy when there isn't a pack trying to squeeze through the door!

Believe q3 production numbers will show themselves about this time next week. Wonder how Serabi managed to time the sales...

[borisjohnsonshair] 07/10/2019 16:05

You don't need L2 to see what you are saying

[borisjohnsonshair] 07/10/2019 15:58

Nowt available

[belt n braces] 07/10/2019 15:53

Level 2 impressive? Level 2 shows 15 trades for the day, what is impressive about that?

[ppvn] 07/10/2019 14:59

Fingers crossed!