Senior Share Discussion Threads

[a0148009] 30/7/2017 22:56

Webcast Monday morning should be good news.

AO

[a0148009] 25/7/2017 12:16

5th July. Turning to Senior, JP Morgan commented:

"We believe SNR's civil aero and industrial earnings will trough in 2017; our 2020E EBITA is 50% above our 2017E EBITA. Our new Dec-18 PT of 300p suggests 28% return potential over 18 months."

Chart looks interesting with extended head and shoulder formation possibly breading out.

[hawaly] 14/6/2017 09:58

This is looking like a good break out..... GLA holders

[rogerrail] 21/5/2017 16:18

Order from Saudis for 150 Black Hawks wont have harmed the share price

[macmoss] 19/5/2017 20:05

Senior Plc : Raymond James raises to strong buy from market perform

[bigbertie] 19/5/2017 15:52

I see a news item about a A320 crash in 2015, after which Air Canada filed a suit against Airbus. The investigation has now blamed weather conditions, runway lighting and pilot procedures. Could Senior have possibly been implicated and therefore now exonerated???? Pure speculation on my part.....I can't see any other likely reason for the share price movement.

[jovi1] 19/5/2017 13:32

I don't think there is a connection but Bombardier as been accused to sell plane in USA under cost of production
whatever this news affect in anyway SNR aerospace not clear
hxxps://globalnews.ca/news/3463536/canada-boeing-fighter-jets-bombardier-dumping/

[rogerrail] 19/5/2017 10:22

stp

As I said SNR is very exposed to the US. The "Trump effect" turned the share price from the date of the election, if you had said that in your last post it would not have been luck but good foresight !.

[stpalm] 19/5/2017 10:07

Blimey! Look at my last post then look at the chart. 8 must confess it was luck. Pity I didn't get any further than an opening position.

[rogerrail] 19/5/2017 09:00

haven't a clue, though there was a rebound in the Dow last night and SNR is very dependent on US, though does not fully explain the rise this morning.

[a0148009] 19/5/2017 08:32

Anyone know the reason for today's jump in price eg upgrade by analyst - have a reasonable holding and looking for earnings to improve and as a bonus possible take over target.

[r ball] 03/5/2017 06:17

Mgt have much to prove. Bring back Mark....

[r ball] 30/4/2017 06:37

Stomh bounce from ex div

[a0148009] 12/4/2017 15:53

You may be none the wiser but better informed.

AO

[a0148009] 28/2/2017 13:09

Worth registering for this Webcast if you have not done so 57 minutes long.




AO

[essentialinvestor] 27/2/2017 17:45

Very good call, and you were also honest enough to disclose your selling price.


When I posted warning on the RR. board 3 years ago it was FCF I noticed
was declining, the gold standard quality metric imv.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 27/2/2017 17:32

And two more years on...










imastu pidgitaswell2 Mar '15 - 08:58 - 2596 of 2672 0 0 Edit
I put the attached post up a couple of years ago. Today, it can be updated for the latest info (see end). While massageable numbers like earnings, divdends etc are up, I still can’t see that a lot has changed since the days of a 24p share price in terms of operating cashflow, and in terms of operating cashflow per share. Debt also up significantly. Yet the shares trade some 12-15 times higher.

Odd business, the stockmarket…





imastu pidgitaswell
28 Aug'13 - 16:37 - 2403 of 2595 0 0 edit


Not intended negatively, I promise, but reading post 2386, and as a purchaser of quite a lot of these at 25p (believe it or not I sold for prices between 35-40p...) back in 2009, I have to ask what the upside in these at this point?

It has peformed phenomenally, up well over 1,000% in 4 years, and yet I compare the relative financial performances then and now and see:


.................2009.................2008

REVENUE | GBP540.1m | | GBP562.4m | | -4% | |
+------------------------------------+-----------+--+-----------+--+-----------+-+
| OPERATING PROFIT | GBP61.0m | | GBP59.8m | | +2% | |
+------------------------------------+-----------+--+-----------+--+-----------+-+
| ADJUSTED OPERATING PROFIT (1) | GBP59.4m | | GBP64.5m | | -8% | |
+------------------------------------+-----------+--+-----------+--+-----------+-+
| ADJUSTED OPERATING MARGIN (1) | 11.0% | | 11.5% | | - | |
+------------------------------------+-----------+--+-----------+--+-----------+-+
| PROFIT BEFORE TAX | GBP49.6m | | GBP51.3m | | -3% | |
+------------------------------------+-----------+--+-----------+--+-----------+-+
| ADJUSTED PROFIT BEFORE TAX (1) | GBP48.0m | | GBP56.0m | | -14% | |
+------------------------------------+-----------+--+-----------+--+-----------+-+
| BASIC EARNINGS PER SHARE | 9.79p | | 9.92p | | -1% | |
+------------------------------------+-----------+--+-----------+--+-----------+-+
| ADJUSTED EARNINGS PER SHARE (1) | 8.91p | | 10.63p | | -16% | |
+------------------------------------+-----------+--+-----------+--+-----------+-+
| TOTAL DIVIDENDS (PAID AND | 2.60p | | 2.60p | | Unchanged | |
| PROPOSED) PER SHARE | | | | | | |
+------------------------------------+-----------+--+-----------+--+-----------+-+
| FREE CASH FLOW (2) | GBP60.1m | | GBP52.4m | | +15% | |
+------------------------------------+-----------+--+-----------+--+-----------+-+
| NET DEBT (2) | GBP102.3m | | GBP174.5m | | GBP72m | |
| | | | | | better | |





and most recently:




FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Year ended 31 December
2012 2011
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ---------
REVENUE GBP729.8m GBP640.7m +14%
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ---------
OPERATING PROFIT GBP94.5m GBP83.0m +14%
ADJUSTED OPERATING PROFIT (1) GBP101.4m GBP88.3m +15%
ADJUSTED OPERATING MARGIN (1) 13.9% 13.8% +0.1ppts
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ---------
PROFIT BEFORE TAX GBP86.7m GBP72.7m +19%
ADJUSTED PROFIT BEFORE TAX (1) GBP91.1m GBP78.0m +17%
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ---------
BASIC EARNINGS PER SHARE 17.11p 13.68p +25%
ADJUSTED EARNINGS PER SHARE (1) 17.75p 14.55p +22%
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ---------
TOTAL DIVIDENDS (PAID AND PROPOSED)
PER SHARE 4.65p 3.80p +22%
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ---------
FREE CASH FLOW (2) GBP57.6m GBP55.6m +4%


Better, some measures up 100% (although note the free cash flow then and now...) - but given the 1,000% share price increase, albeit from a distressed high net debt position, I just don't see much from here?


2015 update:


FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Year ended 31 December % change % change
(constant
currency)
2014 2013
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ---
REVENUE GBP820.8m GBP775.1m
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ---
OPERATING PROFIT GBP89.6m GBP93.3m
ADJUSTED OPERATING PROFIT (1) GBP111.6m GBP107.6m
ADJUSTED OPERATING MARGIN (1) 13.6% 13.9%
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ---------
PROFIT BEFORE TAX GBP80.6m GBP83.8m -
ADJUSTED PROFIT BEFORE TAX (1) GBP102.6m GBP98.1m
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ---------
BASIC EARNINGS PER SHARE 15.25p 17.22p -
ADJUSTED EARNINGS PER SHARE (1) 19.84p 19.00p
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ---------
TOTAL DIVIDENDS (PAID AND PROPOSED)
PER SHARE 5.63p 5.12p
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ---------
FREE CASH FLOW (2) GBP57.8m GBP63.8m -
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ---------
NET DEBT (2) GBP105.0m GBP59.2m
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ---------- -----------





So the latest version:


FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Year ended 31 December % change % change
(constant
currency)
2016 2015
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ---------- -----------
REVENUE GBP917.0m GBP849.5m +8% -2%
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ---------- -----------
OPERATING PROFIT GBP65.8m GBP72.3m -9% -21%
ADJUSTED OPERATING PROFIT (1) GBP85.6m GBP107.8m -21% -28%
ADJUSTED OPERATING MARGIN (1) 9.3% 12.7% -3.4ppts -3.4ppts
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ---------- -----------
PROFIT BEFORE TAX GBP55.5m GBP63.8m -13% -25%
ADJUSTED PROFIT BEFORE TAX (1) GBP75.3m GBP99.3m -24% -31%
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ---------- -----------
BASIC EARNINGS PER SHARE 10.84p 11.59p -6%
ADJUSTED EARNINGS PER SHARE (1) 14.37p 18.98p -24%
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ----------
TOTAL DIVIDS (PAID AND PROPOSED)
PER SHARE 6.57p 6.20p +6%
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ----------
FREE CASH FLOW (2) GBP48.5m GBP51.7m -6%
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ----------
NET DEBT (2) GBP198.1m GBP194.6m GBP3.5m
increase
------------------------------------- ------------ ----------- ----------




Note the free cash flow - back below £50 million per year, and never above £70m since 2008. Yet the shares up 10 fold and now back down 50%. Farcical...

[r ball] 26/2/2017 13:24

Curse of Cobham?

[rogerrail] 11/1/2017 11:26

Good end to the year for Airbus and predicted volumes for 2017 should boost SNR.
Hit target of 50 deliveries for A350.

[stpalm] 21/10/2016 09:43

Yes but all charts turn at some point if the underlying business is sound buy well. Tend to think this will turn. Taken an opening position. Now it's one for the patient, pity the yield isn't a bit better.

[buywell3] 21/10/2016 05:15

Bad looking chart this