I've got a very happy neighbour And when he's happy ..So am I Onwards and upwards x |
Paul stated that we would achieve 40% of the market, but 50% of the revenue. He also said that the market size by now should be $2 billion, that the delayed contracts would be bigger and better, that early 2024 would be busy for new contracts and we had thousands of PO'S for Guardian. He also said we should have a red / blue label aviation product and a 330 aircraft contract by the end of 2022.
Then he suggested the share price should be around 70p by now.
The common thread through all of those statements? None delivered |
 Colin Barnden’s Post
Principal Analyst, Semicast Research
1h
As this image shows, the Magna #occupant #monitoring #mirror is now visually confirmed at start of production using video in the public domain. There is footage over four months old, which pre-dates much of the garbage that has been shared recently about the commercial success of the product. Finding the video was like searching for the proverbial needle in the haystack, but sometimes that is the experience of an analyst. This is the first time I have seen the mirror on video, and we can now see the technical configuration looks like "light pupil" using two sets of #IRLEDs, one oriented vertically and one horizontally. That may suggest the illumination strategy itself supports the c-pose orientation feature necessary for operation from the mirror location.
940nm IR light is invisible to the naked eye, meaning the occupant mirror is visually indistinguishable to the driver and occupants from the standard mirror that Magna International supplies to Volkswagen Group and that is used in so many VW Group models, including those from AUDI AG and Porsche AG. VW has come in for incredible criticism on many fronts for several years, but here it has a world first of single optical path driver and full cabin monitoring #CMS from inside the rear-view mirror. So credit where it is due, and VW put its faith in a novel product from Magna and Seeing Machines, and that product has been delivered as specified.
The video shown is of the 2024 Tiguan L Pro in China, so that implies the two production programs tied to VW and Magna/Seeing Machines are for Europe and China, probably with different feature sets to meet #GBT in China and Euro NCAP - For Safer Cars, Vans & Trucks and #GSR compliance in the EU.
Seeing Machines is the only #DMS developer known to have a production-grade solution for the rear-view mirror. Gentex Corporation has software from the acquisition of Guardian Optical mated with incredible technical competence in the mirror, so it is not to be underestimated. But for now Magna has the lead and #OEMs everywhere will take note of what VW has accomplished here.
Video link If you want to skip through, the relevant footage of the illuminators flashing from behind the mirror glass starts about 15:18, and then again at 15:34. There's other segments, but those are the clearest ones.
Research for the 2025 edition of Semicast's automotive DMS report is underway. Message me to request the outline document, to receive sample pages or for a copy of the order form.
For institutional investors, family offices and others seeking an expert third-party source to understand comparisons between Cipia, Seeing Machines, Smart Eye, and Tobii, I can be booked for telephone-based consultancy via GLG, Guidepoint, and Third Bridge Group Limited Bridge. Just ask for me by name. |
McGlone should restate as he has before it is 40% of DMS revenues, rather than 40% of overall market. SEYE and Cipia will soak up the budget revenues I am sure. This is the best strategy as China will copy, improve and undercut the bottom end very quickly. |
The CFO of SEYE during his presentation last week referred to it having over 300 employees & as many employees will be tech/engineering specialists it is fair to assume that they are highly paid so their payroll costs must be £15-£20 mill,or more,apart from substantial other costs -which suggests that their current monthly losses remain substantial ,until break even,deferred until some time next year.They are likely to need to draw down the expensive loans announced last week.
This helps us in that,apart from their having an apparently lower quality DMS offering than ourselves ,some of their many customers may start to question their ability to deliver high quality DMS with view to their potential financial instability -hopefully in the next round of RFQ awards ,particularly in Japan,as referred to by Paul.
Hopefully that will leave us,at least,on track to achieve 40% of the overall market.
The SEYE CFO referred to their expectation of winning 40% or more of the market while acknowledging that they had lost BMW as a client |
Can't divulge but we have the best walks together and he's bl##dy good looking : ) |
Hope your mate is NVHLtd Nico as we would all love him to multi bag here ! |
Nice rise today .Not long but v happy for holders including my best mate who owns a few. |
Pretty dormant!!!!! |
It isn't difficult to find company info for NVH LTD!! |
Either that or he is Swedish |
Stu T or NVH seems an angry person. Also having a pop on twitter too. Prob will also throw a linkedin diatribe too for good measure. Clearly is over exposed and doesn't understand risk management. If he is so downbeat he could sell and preserve capital from the inevitable loss he is predicting and get a tracker. Rainbow chasing rarely ends well. What a numpty. |
Nvh is clearly either a holder ( why else listen to a 20 minute proactive video)or his interests are with our competition & he will always present negative spin.
Appreciate that these interviews are scripted but he responded to the key points & despite slippage of timescales in the OEM awards of RFQs he considers we remain on track to win Auto business & continue to annually double cars in production with our tech & G3 appears to be close to securing more wins, mandated by European legislation & our relationships with Magna & Valeo sound especially strong.
I remain optimistic. |
Very good interview from Paul telling us that royalties doubling per annum and still expect to win 40% of the market.
Many other points clearly aimed at BB writers who have made unsubstantiated claims to the opposite.
Nvh needs to take note. I read his latest post and at least he is no longer writing in a vitriolic style even though he has wrongly in my view stated that things seem downbeat. Quite the opposite in my opinion.
Time for Nvh to apologise and move on or at least write factual information and not make unsubstantiated accusations. |
The latest Proactive interview
CEO very much his normal self and great to hear Automotive still very much on track - watch for yourselves rather than reading the BS that gets posted here. He also goes onto mention why news is deferred due to regulation implementation being put back 2 years.
Very good interview for those that will listen rather than bring an agenda |
It was Jasper from redeye who started the rumours and quickly deleted them.The fact is the technology is mandated for all vehicles in 2026. We know that current awards aren't enough to cover the volume.The quickest solution to implement seems to be the mirror. We seem to be best placed to win the mirror business. So personally I think the awards will come and the majority will go to us. |
Paul sounds pretty downbeat to me in the new video and you definitely get the feeling he's been forced into responding to general investor concerns around the lack of new contracts and updates on sales / delivery / progress.
He's been kicking the can down the road regarding auto wins since the day he took on the CEO's role. The prediction that new awards would flow at the end of 2023 and early 2024 has now been pushed back again to the end of 2024 and early 2025. Let's hope and pray he gets it right this time for once because the mantra and metric of
doubling the amount of cars SEE has DMS fitted to is becoming more and more irrelevant. It's now down to growing the order book and quarterly sales, not how many cars are fitted with DMS.
By now the order book should be sitting at $1 billion if they were meeting their publicly stated targets, but they are not and the share price reflects their lack of progress.
Paul never really clarifies anything and investors are still left with more questions than answers. Fleet is typical of that. What did he actually clarify that gives investors confidence that we have more than a couple of small orders from a potential annual EU market size of 330K vehicles? What does production in significant numbers actually mean?
Very disappointing interview driven by investor concerns and delivered by what looks like a downbeat and frustrated CEO.
I wonder what author he was referring to for the commentary around the Magna rumours? |
Someone on the Telegram Group referred to an arrangement fee +1% per month of funds drawn -with a total cost of 19/20% |
Two pieces of info from LSE Bulletin board for anyone who hasn't seen them.....
.....
1/ SEYE get a further Credit facility (apparently) at high price...
hxxps://www.smarteye.se/investors/press-releases/press-detail/?slug=smart-eye-expands-its-credit-facility
(From Redeye Analysts....)
" Smart Eye has secured a total credit facility of SEK150m, increasing its unused credit limit from SEK82m to SEK232m. Including the company's cash position as of Q2'24, Smart Eye has a total of SEK342m in available cash.
Regarding the interest rate, Smart Eye states that it is "on market terms" with an "independent credit market actor group." If it had been with a ‘traditional bank’ with a, say, 5-7% interest rate, we assume the bank’s name would have been named and that the interest rate would have been specified somewhat more in detail. Hence, we believe the interest rate, if used, is at least 10%.
Regarding the timing for breakeven, nothing was mentioned in the press release. However, Smart Eye stated that "global new car sales are currently not meeting the expected levels", likely implying that the company's own estimate of breakeven is pushed forward by at least one quarter. That would imply that the company's own breakeven estimate would be moved from Q1/Q2 2025 to Q2/Q3 2025. "
2 / Wrightbus get their largest ever order (1,200 buses) from Go-ahead for London. |
Forgive me. Always happy to concede when I got something wrong. It was still BS whether it was adding a zero to 7p or 10p. Infact it makes it look worse because we can't even achieve 70p rather than 100p per share.
The Italian Job investor video highlighted the depths CEO's will sink to in order to con investors out of their hard earned cash. How he can face people having made the statement about the 330 plane order shows these people have no moral compass.
Then there's the hundreds of thousands of PO'S for Gen 3 also made 2 years ago from a European market size of 330K vehicles per year. Two years later and investors have no idea how many Gen 3 products are produced or sold or even demand ans orders. Something hasn't gone to plan in all 3 verticals and I for one would welcome some honesty for a change. |
Nvh -I don't disagree with your opening comments-however you are clearly confused,or maybe had one too many shandies this evening.I was at the Oct 22 Town Hall & PM certainly did not refer to our share price being undervalued by a factor 10 when our share price was 10p.
That comment was made during the much discussed later presentation ( which was rapidly pulled)to prospective Italian investors with our Sp @ 7p-inferring fair value of a mere 70p.
If you are being critical you could at least be accurate -or post in Swedish which may make more sense to some readers |
We should get some waffle from Paul and Co in the next week or so. Cash breakeven has been signposted to be upto 6 months later than advertised. We should be breakeven in 3 months, but now we're looking at 9 months at least.
Still no Gen 3 contracts and only 1 OEM extension all year todate.
No aviation product despite being told a 330 aircraft order would be landing by the end of 2022.
It's been almost 2 years since the town hall meeting in London where Paul said we could expect a zero on the end of the then share price of circa 10p. What a load of BS.
2024 has been a disaster so far. |
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