What Smarteye's figures really highlight is the fact that dms still isn't in widespread use. There's far too many unanswered questions about the take up rates and who's supplying who.
See appear to have their own problems with promises and actual delivery. |
After looking at Smart Eye's interims today, it looks like it will need another fund raise and still no numbers re cars on road. The lack of detail in its numbers is breathtakingly poor |
 NVH LTD - I do agree with some of your comments & certainly accept that there have been times when good news is overshadowed by something less pleasant.However, they projected cashflow & the expected 30/6 cash balance earlier in the year & we dont know whether the Cat $16.m deal had been factored in ( it had been under discussion for some time).The sale of the remaining G2 stock in Q4 was unexpected,although, & again, Paul had advised us earlier in the year to expect s to sell down our G2 stock by 30/6/24, resulting in improved cashflow in H2-although if the bulk of that stock was sold in June ( as a "job lot")the sales will be reflected in Trade Debtors rather than cash at Bank ,although Paul & Martin should have a good idea as to when the Trade Debtors will be settled.This , I appreciate could create some uncertainty-along with the uncertainty regarding the treatment of the $16.5m from Cat -which could also be the cause of the delay in the update as the Audit Partner acting for SEE may have to agree to the accounting treatment before the update can be issued ( we would not want to declare revenues of $70m if it subsequently transpired they were only $60m.
Despite any perceived uncertainties our share price is up around 20% since the KPI release & The Market usually knows when a fundraise is underway & if that was the case our share price would be more likely to have fallen to less than 4p as those in the know sold ahead of the placing.
My view is that we are interestingly poised & a solid update,demonstrating ( & declaring ) no need for a raise with cashflow break even still expected in FY25 ( we are almost 2 months in ) would be very positive for our share price Clearly an update showing the need for more cash, including a revenue shortfall & with cashflow breakeven deferred to FY26 results in our share price heading rapidly South.
My confirmation bias together with my belief in our substantial potential leads me to expect option 1 . |
A cash raise is on the cards again here. Whether it's a placing, a loan or as Martin Ive mentioned some kind of loan from a customer, money will be needed if they plan to sell significant numbers of Gen 3 products.
What has made them change the date of the trading update. Was it to avoid clashing with Smarteye or was it something to do with the need for additional cash for product?
What we can safely say is that the change of timetable without a set date at this late stage was something unforeseen and with SEE they always managed to ruin good news with bad. |
Nvhltd well looks like the market doesn't share your gloomy view. The share price is moving up quickly now |
Good to see some life in the shareprice in the midst of the August doldrums.
DMS KPI's are bound to improve as more projects start production.
So three questions to be answered (as has been the case for the last two years.....)
1/ Where is the next long awaited tranche of DMS RFQ's ?
2/ What is happening with Gen 3 ? what are the real prospective volumes ?
3/ Is Cash breakeven now in sight, or still over the the next hill ?
time as always will tell... |
pleased to see the share price rise above 5p, not seen since June. It would be even better if it was accompanied by high volume. |
Anyway, above 5p again (for now). |
Although you could of course both be completely wrong in your beliefs. |
Colin Barnden seems to be agreeing with me that there is either an issue with production or demand for Guardian 3. He's suggesting that there's a cash issue preventing them from buying stock to meet demand, but that tye CAT deal and or the sales of the remaining Gen 2 product might help solve. |
OEM contracts will out when manufacturers allow it. Simple.
G3 was explained recently.
Gen 2 is explained by Colin Barndom ...
"buried within the #kpis released this week by seeing machines was an announcement that all existing stock of the #guardian gen2 product has now been sold. with all commercial vehicle #oems in europe requiring some form of #drowsiness monitoring solution, the focus in the after-manufacture channel will be on the #homolocated gen3 product, not gen2. distributors would want to take the latest gen3 product for the aftermarket, and are probably already very keen for supply. so the question is: who would buy up all the existing stock?
the answer could be caterpillar inc., which back in october 2020 announced an agreement to use guardian gen2 in light vehicles and on-highway trucks. caterpillar doesn't need the very latest technology, but it absolutely does need a product which is reliable, validated and verified, to supply to its customers. with a new 5-year agreement announced between seeing machines and caterpillar back in june, the timing of the two developments is likely correlated. within the announcement of the new agreement, the reference to "further co-development of driver safety technology to be undertaken," is probably somehow related to guardian gen3.
all of the major #driver #monitoring #system suppliers are now in a final dash to profitability, ensuring long-term survival as independent companies. a diversified strategy is a sensible way to achieve that, and with all focus on these companies resting on their #automotive progress, it would be bordering on funny if seeing machines achieved that goal through some nifty and well timed deal making with caterpillar. we may hear more details when the fiscal 2024 results are published later this month." |
Nothing to get excited about in today's news. More questions than answers.
Where are the new OEM contracts? Nick said we were in the second wave and tye first half of 2024 was going to be busy for new contracts based on what was "in the hopper" and their "confidence factors". We are supposed to be in the second billion dollars worth of new business. At this rate the growth is going to stall when the existing contracts are in full production, but any new contracts when they come taking several years of NRE before going into production. We also know that camera-based DMS isn't a requirement until 2026.
Then there's the derisory number of G3 sales given the hundreds of thousands of PO'S volumes we received 2 years ago. Again camera-based DMS isn't required until 2026.
The next question is now all of the Gen 2 are sold (not installed) is that why can't they serve the rest of the global market from the start? Is there a production problem or a demand problem? What is their south America agent or APAC agents going to do without product for whatever period of time? What is the production capacity? Why aren't they prepared to supply the global markets particularly as g2 is no longer available. |
Very noble gesture Nico but your best mate is probably hoping for the 70p referred to in last Years infamous "Italian Job" presentation-10p being a decent starting point for the long ascent ! |
My best mate holds loads of these I'm very delighted for him As he's a lovely fella And deserves to make a fortune here Hope we are 10p for him |
This rolling snowball is getting bigger and bigger. |
Happy with that and should improve going forward |
I think so. Reckon we are as low as it's going |
But it will... |
Strange that smarteye makes all the gains , when it was SEE that invented the tech. Sp not budged here in ten years |
Sorry Jmo I didn't read your post properly.
On that basis it looks like £1,300 per bus not 100 quid. So perhaps global bus market is worth 800 m pounds per annum. |
Circa 330,000 commercial vehicles registered in Europe per year. The first GSR deadline was July. Where are the 100,000 plus PO'S Paul mentioned. The reality is that while none camera systems can be used until 2026 Guardian isn't going to be first choice.
Isn't it convenient that Guardian 3 was delayed, then under pressure to explain why there are no orders preceding GSR they finally came clean that a camera dms isn't a requirement until 2026. Now all of a sudden there's a new buzz word called Homologation that's causing further delays to sales and implementation.
Are there really no new truck models due that have to have Guardian 3 now?
Same with the missing car OEM's. Where are the delayed contracts? |
As stated this is an annual figure - which is what annually means :) please read the safestocks blog - Google safestocks can’t type the url here… |
Much better then. My 50k was per annum.. presumably the 800k plus is over x no of years |
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