Guardian 3 has a secret sauce i.e. it is manufactured by EMS directly supplying the OEMs. Besides avoiding the complexity previously [whereby SEE struggled with organising factory production on G2] and simplifying the business model to SAAS it will have a major positive impact on w cap reqs i.e. no need to tie up precious cash in stock. |
The KPIs look aweful but hope the Stifel note has some positivity |
But I see new car sales stalling .... due to the imposition of EV's ..... people just don't want them and will stick with their old petrol car. |
On financial numbers running at 50% higher auto and total revenues in comparison with SEYE
Cash looks as per. Excellent.
Just at the beginning of the ramp up in fovio revenues. Fleet revs will be augmented by G3 sales. G3 is 26 compliant so well ahead of the game and shd add an increasing contribution to Fleet from Q4
Stifel has a new note out |
Quite high inventory number too ..... I would not be surprised to see this Market Cap fall to about £100m |
Numbers better than what I has expecting, as this period included US car workers dispute. DMS is at a very early stage and can only start to accelerate over the next few years. Shame none of its competitors give KPI's |
Bit worried about the cash burn ......and when will this actually turn a profit ?
£200m Market Cap does seem a bit rich ! |
I was expecting a raft of design wins but nothing, however everything on target. |
They rescinded the 50,000 units on twitter straight away.Whilst it's unlikely a fleet operator might have 2 systems it's not completely impossible if they see the benefit of live support. |
You can tell from Sophie's response that she is clueless.
In one of her answers she is suggesting that a truck buyer might choose to have 2 dms - one fitted by the oem and another if they wanted to choose their own dms.
I heard tye question by Ian King on Sky, but if they didn't hear correctly why say 50,000 and if that's incorrect they could easily clarify rather than say they don't have sales targets. |
They have sales targets they communicated these in October.They also said these were conservative targets and internal targets were higher, but they're obviously not going to communicate those. |
In the interview between Nick and Paul Nick said that the second inflection point would be in 2024. The first one didn't amount to the $1 billion it was supposed to so if we add the delayed tenders to the second billion then 2024 should be a fantastic year. However, January has already gone and their lack of news and vagueness about the fleet after manufacture sales process is concerning, but I hope they deliver this time around. |
Nv’s exchanges with Sophie sum up the absolute state of this mob. As he says a company that sells things that doesn’t have sales targets. With every passing day I’m growing more concerned that this is a Turkey. Finding it almost impossible to stay positive |
Looking very positive to me and expecting contract news in the next couple of months. Just a bit of patience required. |
 I asked the question of Sophie and received a typical politicians response in regards to the Gen 3 sales process.
Despite Nick clearly stating that he was expecting sales of Gen 3 to be 50,000 this year she rowed back on this by saying that the WiFi signal was weak and they didn't hear the question. So what question did Nick hear that prompted the response of 50,000 units?
She then said that they do not have any internal sales targets. What absolute drivel. An organisation that sells 'things' doesn't have a sales target?
I also asked her what the difference was between a contract to sell DMS to auto and Purchase Orders for fleet? Again it was total BS.
Here's the exchange:
1) Confirmation that G3 production will start in March / April and not May as Nick mentioned?
A) Production is scheduled for Q4 of FY24 as Paul mentioned in his Proactive interview, which is also what Nick said.
2) Confirmation that Nick's sales forecasts of 50,000 Gen 3 units for calendar year 2024 was valid?
A) That was a confused moment in a live TV interview. We have not forecast Guardian connections for the CY.
3) An explanation of the Gen 3 sales process. ie does the commercial vehicle buyer select their preferred DMS supplier regardless of which oem manufacturers their vehicles or is the buyers DMS option limited by the relationship the commercial vehicle manufacturers have with a DMS supplier? In other words if a buyer wanted to buy Scania trucks would their DMS option be limited to the contract Scania have with a single DMS supplier?
A) We have two channels to market – to the operator directly as “aftermarket fitment” where they choose their DMS supplier – or to the manufacture for “after manufacture/factory fit” fitment where the OEM chooses the system in order for them to pass homologation (compliance). In the second scenario, the operator will buy a vehicle already fitted with DMS and they could choose to add in their own preferred supplier as aftermarket on top of what has been installed in the factory, or they could take what they get and turn on the services with the fitted supplier’s technology – for example Guardian and our 24/7 monitoring service.
4) Until 2026 commercial vehicles do not need a camera based DMS, but can select other monitoring systems?
A) Yes, everyone chooses what they want. Camera-based is the best long-term solution as Distraction requires this (2026) and operators and manufacturers will typically plan for the longer term, taking into account the average lifetime of a commercial vehicle. There is no doubt that camera-based DMS is by far and away the most effective for genuine fatigue and distraction detection.
5) There have been numerous assertions over the past 18 months that the company is working on 12 or more RFQ's. We have been told that decisions need to be made by the OEM'S asap and been given time bound expectations as to when these delayed RFQ'S must be decided. Every deadline goes by with little or no news and certainly not what was expected. Without going into detail what is the latest position on the outstanding RFQ's and expectations for announcements given everything the company have told investors?
A)I cannot talk about this to you individually, Listed companies must disclose information to all of their shareholders at once and when we have news, that is how we will handle it.
6) Why is different 'language ' used for fleet v passenger vehicles in relation to purchase orders and contracts?
A)Because they are very different transactions. Paul talked it through on the Proactive interview. The volumes are vastly different and therefore the sales process is as well. |
I think the market has run out of goodwill to See. Too much bs and missed deadlines.
Revenue, cash generation and profit will be needed to see any material improvement in share price. |
They announced some, albeit small, gen3 contracts this month. I don't expect any more major fleet contracts until they're actually physically available now.Although we might get some more smaller ones with the kpi's next week. |
January down and still no new contracts in auto or fleet. |
Paul said in one of the meetings that he believed the limited time constraints would lead to oem's remaining with incumbent DMS suppliers which is why it was vital to get market share early.
So can we assume that despite the lack of new contracts in the past 25 months he believes new contracts are pretty much nailed on with existing OEM's?
Despite that assertion it doesn't explain the following:
1) Given the lead times and given DMS is required in all new vehicle models from July 2024 sold in Europe then who is supplying DMS to all of the missing oem's that will release new models in the next 29 months to July 2026?
2) Could it be just like SEE PR said about commercial vehicles that until July 2026 new vehicle models only require a DDWS which doesn't necessarily need to be a camera based system as distraction isn't a requirement until July 2026?
3) Given the lumpy nature, delays and uncertainty around new contract are we likely to see revenues / profits fluctuate wildly until all cars sold in Europe have to have DMS fitted?
I still think SEE are being deliberately vague in their communications / clarity and not because they are being Conservative in a positive way. I don't think things are panning out as they predicted. |
Perhaps there is a missing link..... The Tier 1's.
Even though Tier 1's may have contracts signed with the OEM's SEE may be working on those contracts without being able to disclose.
They are certainly incurring significant Engineering Fees which are a precursor to installation.
They must be spending those big bucks on something real - it cannot all be research. |
Hello Alan. Good luck I am still holding but its a frustrating share so I am not as confident as some of my others. The next 6 months should be full of new contracts. |
Starting to look like January is another wash out month.
If my understanding is correct from July 2024 all new vehicle 'models' sold in Europe must have DMS (ADDW camera based system)and then from July 2026 all 'new vehicles' sold in Europe must have DMS (ADDW).
From July 2024 all new vehicles sold in Europe must have a DDWS. The distinction here is that a DDWS doesn't have to be a camera based system and doesn't detect for 'distraction' certainly not in commercial vehicles anyway according to SEE PR.
So if it takes circa 2 years from closing a deal and the engineering / design work needed then it seems to me that there's no time left or new models expected anytime soon. Any new deals now must be for 2 years the future?
If SEE are correct in their timelines of circa 2 years from deal to production then any car maker now only has 2 years and 5 months to meet the ultimate deadline of July 2026.
What I don't know or understand is if there are any vehicle makers still out there that haven't selected a DMS partner who plans to have a new 'model' between now and July 2024 sold into Europe or by July 2026 given the lead times communicated by Paul.
None of it makes much sense to me.
In commercial vehicles my understanding directly from the company is that from July 2024 all commercial vehicle sold in Europe must have a DDWS, but it doesn't have to be a camera system to detect distraction until July 2026, but it does if it a new truck model and then it's July 2024. |
amt this was tipped again on morning share tips so I’ve just bought 20 000 just to dip my toe in the water, good luck, |
I'm afraid only Contracts, increasing volumes in KPIs with profitability coming into sight will help us here.
Tips, promises, proactive interviews we have had plenty of.
Time for execution and the resultant forward motion.
July 2024 has long been heralded as D-Day for DMS adoption in Europe in new models of cars and trucks. If we get there without significant wins announced in Auto and Guardian the long journey will have been just that - a long journey to nowhere.
Cannot even contemplate such an outcome !! Onward and upward .... |
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