 AMT please don't go there with that kind of nonsense. I don't like the way my favorite football team is playing and I criticise them, but I don't flip flop to a team that is playing well. Likewise I hate how the UK is going to pot, but I don't want to emigrate. Criticising, challenging, debating, researching, and seeking clarity provides us with the tools to understand and make informed decisions.
This week I have exchanged numerous emails with Sophie to try and understand the after Manufacture business, scale of opportunity and sales process. She has been very helpful, but there are still gaps which she promises she will respond to when she gets back from Vegas. She also said that she will pass my emails directly to Paul where I again have asked for him to explain to all investors the particular nuances of the after manufacturer opportunity particularly given our first mover advantage, superior product, real world data, 330K commercial vehicle annual market size in Europe alone, GSR regulation, PO'S for hundreds of thousand of Gen 3 etc etc against the reality and Conservative targets communicated by the company.
Maybe you can fill the gaps?
The news this week has not shifted the share price and there are reasons for that. Do you know or are you happy with 5p?
Why has Smarteye announced 17 wins in auto since 2022 against Seeing Machines 5? Paul's explanation doesn't seem to apply to the competition.
Maybe you can tell everyone how or which company will meet the demands to supply drowsiness tech to circa 165K commercial vehicles from July 7th? |
nvh if you have so little faith why don't you sell up and buy Smart Eye instead. |
Again another opportunity missed to confirm and clarify their GEn 3 sales target for this year. |
I guess CEO is tired from all the hype around SEE at CES - see 10 minute interview at Proactive: |
They are not Nostradamus. What matters is delivery. Actual sales and fast pace of growth.
Sadly, SEYE's accounts show a far poorer performance than the hype. SEE is growing at a good pace 49% sales growth last year. The 3 CFOs in a year at SEYE is imo a red flag |
Seeing Machines need to clarify the statement Nick made on Sky news regarding the 50K Gen 3 sales target. The company are blaming a poor WiFi connection for not hearing Ian Kings question clearly, but Nick was floundering in his response and clearly looking around the room for support. He threw out 50K in reply, but now SEE are rowing back on the figure of 50K actually mean. ie sales or sales / monitoring connections. As usual they failed to provide any clarity and leave it to investors to draw conclusions. |
Smarteye have given a monetary figure. Seeing machines haven't. |
10 jan 24
Global Frontier Investments, LLC (as General Partner for, and Investment Advisor to, Global Frontier Partners, LP) add c 1pc |
boonboon, these are just estimates from the two companies you quote and are thus generally meaningless. It is actual orders that count. Just stating design win and estimated revenue (smarteye) can be misleading, as what happens at design stage my never see the light of day. As others have stated Smarteye needs another funding round and will use words like 'ground breaking' to pump its share price up. An RNS with actual orders and tangible numbers is key to making the right investment decisions |
Seeing Machines either deliberately or otherwise seem incapable of providing clear and consise information to investors in order to make investment decisions.
Here's what we know.
European commercial vehicles registration is circa 330K vehicles per year.
From July 7th 2024 all commercial vehicles sold must have a system to detect drowsiness.
From July 2026 all commercial vehicles sold must have a camera based DMS for drowsiness and distraction.
The market size in 2024 alone is therefore 165K vehicles for dms to detect drowsiness.
The 2 contract wins announced by Cipia and Smarteye state that in Cipia's case that the contract kicks in from Q4 2025 and Smarteye will begin production for their contract in 2025 and ramp up significantly in 2026.
What I don't know and I'm trying to find out from Sophie is whether the system required this year to meet the 2024 GSR requirements for drowsiness is a CAMERA BASED DMS or is there a non camera based system out there that satisfies the first GSR regulation?
I agree that we are rapidly losing our first mover advantage and that Paul's claims that it is technically challenging to develop a DMS is no longer valid. In fact I never believed the hype around the rear view mirror being the holy grail of locations or the strength of any patents to prevent others from developing their own system in the mirror. Just the area around the mirror is an easy position for any car maker to install dms without the need to greatly increase costs with different models. Our exclusive arrangement with Magna hasn't yielded the sales we all hoped for so far and we're almost half way through that exclusive arrangement. It won't be long before Magna start to talk to Smarteye, Cipia or Jungo about integrating their systems in their mirrors to drive down costs, provide customers with options and drive system developments.
So assuming that the DMS system to meet the July 2024 deadline is a camera based system and given the announcements from Cipia and Smarteye that their contracts announced so far don't kick in until late 2025 then who is going to supply the 165K commercial vehicles with a DMS system for detecting drowsiness from July 2024? Literally 6 months away!
Something doesn't add up or make sense at the moment and it's like getting blood from a stone to get clarity from Seeing Machines. I can only assume and deduct that the DMS required by July 2024 doesn't have to be a camera based system to detect drowsiness and that there are many suppliers of such systems?
In the car space the claim by Paul that contract awards are being delayed by the OEM's themselves while they seek to add features just doesn't stack up when we look at the contract wins Smarteye have won over the past 18 months.
Since the start of 2022 we have won a total of 5 new contracts where Smarteye have announced 17. Now we can argue about the values, volumes, prestige on the OEM etc all we like it's up to Paul and Seeing Machines to convince their investors that what they say is truthful and that we are still on track to gain 40% of the market by volume and 50% by revenue. At the town hall meeting he was bragging that in 2021 we won 80% of all DMS business and they were confident of winning 60% in 2022. Well 2023 based on the contracts announced must have been a disaster for our share of contracts awarded. |
The RNS does not state that this is the total orders for the year. they only launched it yesterday. Give them a chance! |
I imagine 14.5 million usd is more than 3,000 units a year. https://smarteye.se/investors/press-releases/press-detail/?slug=smart-eye-announces-eight-breakthrough-driver-monitoring-system-design-wins-for-commercial-vehiclesCipia has 11 design wins so I expect that's also above 3,000 units per year. |
From what I am aware neither Smarteye or Cipia have quoted any actual numbers, so reference to significant orders is meaningless. Going from 1 to 10 is significant, but in commercial terms its peanuts. |
Cipia and Smarteye have already got significant orders. So I'm not convinced we'll get near 40%.Maybe their 10% statement from October is closer to reality than we expected. |
What's that then in usd about 3 million?
Its 1% of the total market in the day after launch.
They should get 40% of the market or say 120m usd per annum.
That alone would make them profitable and with automotive and aviation ontop generating eventually hundreds of millions then a billion usd valuation possible in 5 or 6 years |
3,000 per year is a start, but not a great start. |
according to a Stifel research note, Seeing Machines has launched the third generation of its Aftermarket Driver Monitoring System (DMS) product, called Guardian, which is ideally suited for fleet vehicles. The new product is significant for the company as it provides a feature-rich product at a much lower production cost, which can catalyze revenues in this division1. The unit cost of the Gen 3 product is 40% of the previous model, which provides a significant advantage over competitors and allows the company to price its product at a more competitive rate and make a profit, while improving gross margins1. Stifel analysts reiterated a ‘buy’ rating on Seeing Machines and set a share price target of 15p, versus the last closing price in London of 5.32p1. |
My suspicion is that this is to give the purchasing fleet manager the option to choose his DMS supplier without forcing him away from his preferred truck oem of choice. I suspect that the major truck makers will not enter into single source restrictive contracts with just one DMS supplier.
As an after manufacturer product without the limitations of cabin design / placement I think the fleet manager will cherry pick his dms system as he specs his truck. I don't believe Scania for example will limit potential sales by only offering a dms with a dms supplier without the monitoring option if a large safety orientated organisation wanted Scania trucks, but a dms with monitoring.
Scania will want to keep their loyal customers, but give its customers choices.
This is why I think the language around PO's instead of contracts is used and why SEE are uncertain around sales volumes because they don't know what a fleet manager / truck purchaser will want from his truck oem. |
It's not as clear cut as volume in fleet. Our competitors are selling similar products granted, but as far as I'm aware, they're not selling the monitoring side.This is our main differential and I expect we can be more profitable with lower volumes than competitors.What will be interesting is the August kpi's, which will be an early indication of the initial success. |
The next self-imposed deadline is the March / April production start for Gen 3. The way they write RNS's always leave me with more doubts and deflated.
While the competition clearly talk about actual contracts we talk in riddles about Purchase Orders received.
I'm assuming a contract order in this regard give the dms provider a definitive minimum order quantity which will be bought, but a PO suggests that the truck maker has a little more freedom to call off a gen 3 unit only if and when one is needed?
It would certainly help investors understand the change in language used between previous auto wins (contracts) and fleet (PO's).
If we are going to use the term PO's for fleet and we have received PO's already in significant amounts then why can't these numbers be released? My only rationale for withholding the numbers in the PO's received is that they are might not lead to actual sales? |
Good that they've announced Gen3. Just need to get some orders. |
I don't think SEE have their own stand. They usually collaborate on partner stands. |
If CES starts tomorrow and Gen 3 is displayed on our stand then it must be a reasonable assumption to expect the Gen 3 RNS launch tomorrow. |
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