The following is from the Investor Meets presentation in October 2023. So in the 12 months since tye London Town Hall meeting where there was little or no competition in the aftermarket space the market is now "crowded".
Question 21:
Has Smarteye caught up with See in the commercial vehicle space?
The Commercial Vehicle space is crowded. We never underestimate our competition, but we can say that Seeing Machines has been working in this sector for years and now have over 51,900 connections. |
I'm afraid Paul's comment about being the only one to tender is now clearly outdated. Since the London Town Hall meeting at the end of 2022 they failed again to deliver on a stated target of launching Gen 3 before the end of financial year 2023 without explanation and in the time since then we have not only seen Smarteye and Cipia announce their own products, but actually announce deals. Cipia have even announced a truck deal today. It does beg the question why we haven't announced any aftermarket deals despite the suggestion that we are responding to RFQ'S where supposedly there was no competition? |
Paul said 10% but realistically it’s going to be a lot lot higher from 2026.
We are the leader in miles travelled and with gen 3 which is based on our car DMS should get sone large contracts coming through, Paul stated they were asked for quotes on large orders where there was no competition. Perhaps they have someone else bidding after that announcement but I’m hoping for gen 3 launch this week and new contracts over the following weeks. |
BoonBoon. Thanks for the clarification. I knew Seeing Machines couldn't be straightforward with their reply. Your explanation explains why there isn't a mandate for a camera based DMS and that alternative sensors can be used to satisfy the July 2024 legal requirements.
It also explains why SEEING Machines aren't sure how much of the market they may take from July if non camera systems can satisfy the initial regulations. |
Drowsiness can be detected in multiple ways. Distraction is camera only. Detecting drowsinessHow does technology help to recognize that drivers may need to take a break?Steering behavior monitoring: using sensors to detect changes in steering behavior, audible or vibrating alerts will notify the driver if they appear to be drowsy.Eye tracking: tracking the driver's eye movements with cameras and image-processing algorithms helps to identify signs of drowsiness.Heart rate and respiration monitoring: by monitoring heart rate and respiration, these systems can determine if the driver is at risk of falling asleep at the wheel and issue an alert to help wake them up.Brainwave monitoring: EEG sensors can detect brainwave pattern changes and provide potentially sleepy drivers with |
I received this from Sophie:
"The regulation is staggered. From 7 July 2024, all new registrations will require technology to detect drowsiness. This then escalates to include distraction from 2026".
hxxps://guardian.seeingmachines.com/aftermanufacture
It seems pretty clear to me that if Guardian 3 is a device to detect drowsiness then it needs to be fitted to all trucks and buses sold in Europe from July 7th. That's a potential market size of 330K a year or 27,500 per month.
What staggers me is that Paul claims that there are very few competitors, but is only predicting 10% of the market. Yet in auto they are confidently forecasting 40% by sales and 50% by revenue.
Who are the "very few competitors" in the commercial space that are forecast to take 90%. |
Mobileye profit warning in USA, shares fall 25% |
neat video on aviation [though 8 months old] |
I've sent an email to Sophie in the hope she can clarify. |
Like I said I believe DMS is only required on new models from July this year. It doesn't apply to all vehicles till 2026.Although I agree there is some ambiguity. |
I'll be relieved if and when they announce gen 3 at CES and confirm that manufacturing is on track to meet the July deadline. |
The Smarteye announcement you referenced states that their tech will go into "some" of their vehicle models and also states that installations will start in 2025 with significant ramp up in 2026.
It doesn't explain or clarify who's dms system will be used from July. I'm obviously hoping it's Seeing Machines. |
Cipia also a player in that market https://cipia.com/news/cipia-awarded-10-additional-car-models-with-leading-chinese-automaker-chery-2/Hopefully gen3 will launch with some contracts from the off. |
Thanks.
I haven't been as proactive in my research into SEE and the market drivers for 12 months or more because I was becoming more and more annoyed with the delays and BS from Paul. The past 12 to 18 months have been very disappointing despite the relationships being developed.
The Smarteye announcement might not be all they seem if some are to be believed, but just looking at their news announcements over the same period and one would have to be mightily impressed compared to our. Only yesterday they announced a new partnership and in the past year many dms wins and a worldwide truck oem contract.
I'm just nervous about our stated target of 10% of the truck market considering our experience over the years. I would have expected more upbeat forecasts. It seems to contradict with their statements about the lack of competition even though at least 3 dms companies will be at CES with fleet products and others claim to have fleet products. |
They have a built in option.https://smarteye.se/investors/press-releases/press-detail/?slug=smart-eye-announces-eight-breakthrough-driver-monitoring-system-design-wins-for-commercial-vehicles |
 Again BoonBoon I'm not sure you are correct in your assertion that Smarteye have a mass volume commercial dms product. In fact I hope you are wrong. This is their CES announcement for their AIS product:
"AIS
/ Intelligent driver support for safer roads
AIS is Smart Eye’s complete hardware and software driver support system for small-volume vehicle manufacturers and aftermarket installation for vehicle fleets. Using AI-based technology to detect driver distraction and drowsiness, AIS is a flexible and scalable in-cabin safety system designed to reduce road accidents. A camera-based system that never records or stores any footage of the driver, AIS lets fleets enhance safety without ever compromising on privacy.
Our demo will showcase the system’s ability to detect drowsiness, distraction, and dangerous driver behavior in any situation. Come see how AIS lets vehicle manufacturers smoothly adopt highly accurate drowsiness detection in their vehicles, guaranteeing immediate compliance with the EU’s General Safety Regulation (GSR)".
The question is when they say "small-volume" does that mean they class all commercial vehicles sold in Europe (330K per year) as small-volume or is small-volume an amount within the 330K total addressable commercial market? |
Agreed. It does seem that all of the dms manufacturers are claiming to have a commercial vehicle product available. Indeed Cipia are showcasing their fleet product at CES this year.
Our USP if nothing else seems to be the monitoring service which no one else is talking about.
Let's hope and pray that Paul doesn't screw this up because truck makers are going to need the product very soon if they are to have confidence that SEE can deliver for the July 7th date. Indeed I suggest production of vehicles with dms will need to start 3 months at least before the deadline.
If there was one product we have held a leadership position in for years it is fleet so I hope we don't fail at this late stage and gift business to Smarteye, Cipia and the others.
If we get this right then 2024 must surely be the year SEE delivers. |
Smarteye are selling a built in system for large volume oem's. They've won some business for that.Paul has stated we didn't compete as not profitable for us and we think the gen3 product will be the better option.Time will tell if he's right. |
It should also be noted that Cipia for example also work with Mobileye, Amberella and OmniVision. |
I found this in relation to Smarteye's newly released fleet product. Note the comments about being an aftermarket product and for new vehicles in "small volumes"!
"AIS is a complete plug-and-play system, making it easy to install and very cost-effective. It is ideal for aftermarket installation in the cabin of existing trucks, buses, and cars, and for deployment in new vehicles being produced in small volumes". |
Wherever I look it seems to confirm that from July a 'system' is required in all new commercial vehicles.
After years of experience selling Guardian, billions of miles of data collection and limited competition then surely we must be able to take more than 10% of this market which is what they are targeting?
However, this is why I have reservations until proven otherwise that a) they announce the launch at CES and b) they have no issues with production volumes from March / April.
I would then like to know how the whole sales process works?
1) Does the end user have a choice of dms suppler when they spec a vehicle or are they lumbered with whatever product the oem is offering?
For example if my preference is to buy Scania trucks will I have the option to buy a dms with the monitoring feature or will Scania say we only fit Smarteye? It would limit my options as an operator if each truck oem is tied to one dms supplier.
Hopefully this is where our relationship with Mobileye will start to bare fruit and it might also explain the 'purchase order' statement insofar that we supply to all truck oems on a customer order basis when selected over Smarteye rather than to individual OEM's to straight forward production volumes? |
If there are to be 330k commercial vehicles produced from deadline date perhaps that's where Mobileye will help ? |
BoonBoon I'm not sure your statement is correct.
There are 6 safety features required to be fitted to all commercial vehicles registered in Europe from July 7th this year. One of those is:
"Driver drowsiness and inattention warning: Warns the driver if the system assesses that they are not as alert and may be tiring".
The above statement is taken from this Scania article:
hxxps://www.scania.com/uk/en/home/about-scania/newsroom/news/2023/eu-new-safety-regulation-for-trucks-and-buses.html
So the question is whether a drowsiness system is a camera based DMS? If it is then July is the drop dead date we need to meet.
Or is DMS number 8 and/ or 9 in the following Volvo literature in which case you might be correct if DMS is only considered a distraction device:
hxxps://www.volvotrucks.com/en-en/news-stories/insights/articles/2022/may/the-eus-updated-general-safety-regulations.html
The most clear statement I have seen that all commercial vehicles registered in Europe must have DMS by July 2024 is this statement from Jungo:
Home » Driving Safety in the Age of GSR 2024: How Driver Monitoring Systems Can Help
Driving Safety in the Age of GSR 2024: How Driver Monitoring Systems Can Help
The General Safety Regulation (GSR) is a regulation that sets mandatory safety requirements for new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles sold in the European Union (EU). The purpose of the regulation is to improve the safety of vehicles and reduce the number of accidents and fatalities on European roads. This includes a requirement for vehicles to be equipped with systems to detect driver distraction and drowsiness and is set to come into effect in 2024.
The implementation of DMS in vehicles is a significant step towards reducing the number of accidents caused by driver distraction or fatigue. The GSR requires all new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles sold in the European Union to have a DMS installed by 2024,
hxxps://jungo.com/driving-safety-in-the-age-of-gsr-2024-how-driver-monitoring-systems-can-help/
We also have this clear statement from Smarteye. Again it refers to all new vehicles and not new models.
hxxps://smarteye.se/news/smart-eye-introduces-ais-cv-alert-advanced-gsr-compliant-drowsiness-detection-for-buses-and-trucks/#:~:text=Effective%20from%20July%206%2C%202024,potentially%20hazardous%20levels%20are%20detected.
And this one that July 7th is the drop dead date for drowsiness and 2026 for distraction. Either way Smarteye and Jungo are clear that they have 2024 for their product.
hxxps://smarteye.se/blog/how-smart-eye-can-help-bus-and-truck-manufacturers-navigate-gsr/
Even Seeing Machines is saying that Guardian is a drowsiness detection system to meet the GSR deadline date in July:
hxxps://guardian.seeingmachines.com/bus-and-coach#:~:text=All%20new%20buses%20and%20coaches,to%20comply%20with%20new%20regulation |
I thought someone said that it was all new vehicles made in the commercial space from June 2024? |
It's only for new models from June. Existing models is 2026. |
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