Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[captain james t kirk] 08/7/2019 15:00

Michael Raynes riding into the sunset might have something to do with that.

[haideralifool] 08/7/2019 14:33

Malcy's blog fails to mention that they are interpreting seismic in Egypt. Let's see how their plans come together in comparison to previous optimism.

[shakeypremis] 08/7/2019 14:07

He pulled the wool over the eyes of the rest of us too and possibly also the rest of the board and Waha. Although I'm not really sure how he would have been able to get away without the latter two knowing for so long.

[tournesol] 08/7/2019 13:04

I'm talking with the benefit of hindsight.

I was taken in by PW and am embarrased to say I believed him. I misjudged his character and competence. For which I take full resdponsibility. But the scales have now fallen from my eyes.

I'm writing in the spirit of

"Fool me once, shame on you.

Fool me twice, shame on me."

[ghhghh] 08/7/2019 11:21

I also wondered why Tournesol invested at a much higher price if Circle assets were so obviously tinpot.

[shakeypremis] 08/7/2019 11:04

Tournesol, I agree that the assets aren't top drawer (although Morocco *could* be). I also agree that they failed to deliver in Morocco, more down to unrealistic targets more than anything else. They also failed to deliver SD on time, again down to unrealistic timescales. I wouldn't call the Egypt or Morocco projects abject failures though. SD appears to be progressing and Morocco is waiting for an increase in demand (which may never come but who knows).

PW's reign was a failure due to his lies. However, SDX have made good discoveries, remained debt free, free from dilution and are funding CAPEX from cashflow and receivables. SD *will* come online at *some* point and it's almost certain more gas will be found in both Egypt and Morocco. Egyptian gas will be sold, Moroccan gas, who knows, although larger reserves allow for more certainty of cashflow in to the future.

Your comment about tinpot assets is a little confusing. Did you feel the very same assets were tinpot when you invested last year? Egypt is a tinpot jurisdiction yes and Morocco doesn't appear to have the demand we thought it might, but are the assets tinpot? Hmm

[ghhghh] 08/7/2019 10:37

tournesol

Thanks for reply, agree assets not top drawer. However SDX have coughed up the infrastructure costs and yet to benefit from increased production. Prospects cheap to drill and high CoS?

Remember that the oil price traded at c. $45 -$50 over 2016, only bounced year end. Deal announced Jan 2017. Hence, whilst the assets are not top drawer, we were still emerging from a bear market. This would have limited buyer interest?

Circle failed because of severe bear market restricting access to funding?

SDX not failed yet, the share price fall more incompetence than assets.

Peel Hunt has mooted SIA, Apache and Transglobe as possible buyers.

[tournesol] 08/7/2019 10:02

I think the talk about being a take-over target is wishful thinking.

The key question is "a target for whom?" Who exactly wants to buy SDX?

Remember that Circle tried to build a business in Egypt and Morocco and failed. It tried to sell its assets but the only buyer who wanted them was SDX. The result was that SDX paid a much lower price than analysts valued the assets at. At the time SDX was itself trading below the analyst valuation of its assets.

What does that tell us? It tells us that Assets in Egypt and Morocco are not in great demand and are not highly valued.

So here we are some time later. SDX has not lived up to its ambitions and has not succeeded in transforming itself and achieving strong growth.

IMHO what that means is that the market will be even less inclined than it was previously to attribute value to the assets which have proved too difficult for 2 successive companies and management teams. If Circle couldn't make things work in Egypt and Morocco and SDX has also tried and failed, why on earth would anyone else want to take them on?

There is no shortage of oil and gas assets on the market. Why go looking for trouble?

If the scale/profitability of the assets were very high that might work as an attractant. But they aren't. To be brutally honest they are tinpot assets which might suit a tinpot buyer. But tinpot buyers are not going to pay very much.

[the drewster] 08/7/2019 09:00

I'd say that there are a few things to be proved up before it becomes a serious target.

[ghhghh] 08/7/2019 08:57

I bt 100K at 19.75p at open. Looks possible takeover target down here?

[swiftnick] 08/7/2019 08:47

How did someone get to trade 100,000 shares 28 seconds before the market opened?

[shakeypremis] 08/7/2019 07:30

Tombul, you were right about PW being a liar. Not much else though. No dilution and as far as we know, no fake gas discoveries that you kept banging on about.

[brasso3] 08/7/2019 07:27

A solid update.

I will be doubling up in a few months time if this is still below 20p.

[tombul] 05/7/2019 22:38

Hey Shakeypremis,

I want to shake you a little bit with the following question:

Tell all of us who was right about Dilution Lover, Mr. Pinocchio?


a)Tigris72poo

b)Shakeypremis

c)Tombul

d)Tournesol

e)Angela

[haideralifool] 05/7/2019 13:15

^

Yes, we've discussed that point on these boards on various occasions. It's a sore point with me when PW used to bang on about margins and MGW used to nod sagely. Morocco is one big pin cushion. So it's mainly capex and not opex. It seems to be that that narrative may have suckered in (whether intentionally or not) the unwary who were more used to other oil/gas companies. What they need there is a big hit, and LM could be it, but they are taking their time going back.

[al101uk] 05/7/2019 12:46

Interesting view on SDX:

hxxps://www.shareprophets.com/views/43531/sdx-energy-morocco-high-margin-gas-is-it-more-hot-air-than-gas

The argument is that capital expenditure on renewing reserves in Morocco actually comes in almost as high or higher than the "high margin" production that results from those drills. So operationally SDX in Morocco looks great, but in reality the replacement costs of those reserves eats away at any profit.

He backs that up by pointing to the statutory reserves audit that is mandatory with a Canadian listing. He questions the reasons for the delisting as a result.

I sold at a 40% loss a while ago and have no financial interest either way., just thought the article was worthy of a read.

[captain james t kirk] 04/7/2019 14:55

That reminds me of Willard Whyte in Diamonds are forever, "I don't have anything in Baja" (Abu Dhabi) :)

hxxps://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/sdx-energy-inc-announces-its-financial-and-operating-results-for-the-three-months-ended-march-31-2019-and-a-directorate-change-893215457.html

[des56daw] 04/7/2019 12:32

Does anyone have a link to the program of works for SD, I thought it was in
AGN RNS had a look on the SDX website but cannot see it. Seem to recall there
was a equipment test to be carried out in Abu Dhabi by the end of June.
I know there was 8 weeks contingency built in, but with everything else that has
gone on keeping an extra close eye on this share.
Though do think it is very cheap but if it keeps missing targets it will
get cheaper.
Regards
Des

[deanroberthunt] 04/7/2019 12:23

give me a shout when its under 10p

[shakeypremis] 04/7/2019 11:07

PW must never work in the industry again. But there must be others in the company that were complicit and most likely the major shareholders too. I would have thought that if the major shareholders were complicit they wouldn't have kicked PW and Raynes out. Perhaps the two of them misled everyone. Who can say.

As Tournesol says, major credibility problem right now but it can be rectified more or less by just getting SD online! The Young prospect being gas only is disappointing but I won't be complaining if they strike decent gas there.

[value viper] 04/7/2019 11:03

Do we care that directors all bought shares above current market price in May ?

[tournesol] 04/7/2019 08:58

Industry pros who deliver have got better things to do and bigger paychecks to collect

[haideralifool] 04/7/2019 08:43

I don't think it was incompetence tbh.

If you consider the very regular podcast appearances to pump up the significance of finds that were hardly transforming. And if you note the graph at the end of their presentations which highlighted how cheap the share price was (in their opinion), there seemed to be an air of desperation to keep the share price up.

For what reason we can only guess at.

It was/is(?) all forgivable as long as they make a transformative discovery in Egypt and/or Morocco. AIUI they claimed something along these lines for Lalla Mimouna, whether the drills later this year confirm that will be interesting to see.

The promising Young oil discovery in Egypt turned out to be gas. And then there was that fiasco some years ago when (IIRC) the independent assessment of the company's Egypt operations was a lot less rosy than had been claimed.

[the drewster] 04/7/2019 08:41

Jury is out on what can actually be believed and monetised.

[ifthecapfits] 04/7/2019 08:36

Depends on who they get in. If an industry pro who delivers......