Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[tournesol] 29/4/2019 09:38

Rossannan

I wouldn't argue with your assertions that PI's can be short sighted and that share price weakness can present opportunities.

BUT

you say that timing is everything and you imply that the share price at SDX currently provides just such an opportunity.

If you look back at the chart of the share price, you will see that:-

a) Your optimistic statement could have been said at any time during the past 12 months and would have been proved wrong every time.

b) There is a clear and well established downwards trend. It is not a temporary thing, it is not a moment of weakness or a random blip, it has been playing out for 12 months since May 2018.

c) The share price has fallen from 73p to 29.5p - that's a loss of of 60%. Recovering that loss will now require a gain of 150% just to get back to where it was a year ago.

It is entirely possible that SDX will eventually blossom and bear fruit and will indeed recover to its previous heights and even surpass them. But it is also possible that it will lose another 60% from here. Or even more.

The most important lesson I've learned in 35 years of investing is that King Canute's approach simply does not work. If the tide is against you, you get nowhere by resisting it. Much better to get out of the way and wait for it to turn. If SDX's fortunes turn and they start to make progress and the markets start to drive the price upwards, those who jump back in at that point will gain just as much benefit as those who have allowed themselves to be submerged - and they will have avoided the risk of drowning in the meantime. If they are really lucky and/or skillful they will have invested somewhere else whilst waiting, so will have done even better.

I bailed out of SDX a few weeks ago. I have avoided the last downwards lurch AND I've made money elsewhere. And I feel that I am in control rather than waiting with a sense of helplessness and hoping that things turn round.

[neo26] 29/4/2019 08:27

Well under 30p now.

[pol123] 20/4/2019 17:55

All sounds overly negative, we are making cash, have cash in the bank, more exploration in H2. SD will come online H2

Forward FCF looks strong

[the drewster] 17/4/2019 12:04

Potential, and your belief that the company will deliver on that potential.

Individuals assess those two factors to decide whether speculation is justified.

[al101uk] 17/4/2019 11:53

tournesol,

Have you been watching this, just posted on the value thread:

hxxps://www.piworld.co.uk/2019/04/17/navigating-the-markets-with-stephen-english-part-2-of-2/

Just listening to the guy say exactly what I was reading you say as regards management integrity.

[tournesol] 17/4/2019 11:06

Napoleon

That's very kind, but I've already been in PMG for years. It's my second biggest holding.

Much of the attraction of PMG is Tom Cross - I followed him when he ran Dana - which was my biggest holding for donkey's years and which made me the biggest gains of my investing career (about 25x). I am happy to be patient with my investments but the single most essential attribute they must possess is management integrity - it's even more important than competence. Cross is no speedy Gonzalez but he has integrity AND competence.

[napoleon 14th] 17/4/2019 10:53

tournesol - I bought PMG just before that rise. My "crowd" flagged it & they are very much the sharpest knives in the drawer. Perhaps you'd like to join us?
________________

SDX is like AMER - rows of jars full of jam been piling up for yonks, BODs getting fat despite their failure to deliver.

I hold both. Very little SDX (sold most c. 2 months ago) & a few AMER; just enough to get frustrated!

[tournesol] 17/4/2019 08:42

HA and SP

the argument that it is, in effect, too late to sell, or not the optimum time to sell, effectively embodies 2 ideas that I would challenge.

1) it won't fall much further

2) there is no significant opportunity cost - other potential investments would not perform better

Neither of these holds water.

Within the past fortnight PMG has risen by 20% in a week. Money switched into it from SDX has recovered half of the loss inflicted by PW's failings.

[haideralifool] 17/4/2019 08:23

For me, this is an 'arts' share. Always remember to sell.

Like shakey, I don't think right now is the time to sell, I think there is enough in the pipeline to merit a bounce, but when it happens I would be remiss if I hung onto everything.

I recall past situations with Soco and Aminex, when the boards were also full of anguish. I held on (because I did not think the problem was terminal) but did remember to scale back significantly when the price subsequently rose - no matter what the level of general shareholder confidence was when it did rise.

[shakeypremis] 17/4/2019 08:09

Indeed. Just what exactly is going on at SDX is beyond me and PW has lost all credibility on timelines and future plans. He just can't be trusted. I won't be selling though. I can't believe SD won't come online ever. There will almost certainly be another delay and the share price will suffer. Squelcho's other target of 70k bopd by year end 2019, remember it? Well that's up in smoke now because it was based on acquiring BP's GUPCO stake which now looks to be going to Dragon Oil. How does he get away with it? ?The only thing SDX has going for it right now is sound fiscal management and excellent exploration success. These two without an increase in production just delay the inevitable however. They've got to bring those discoveries online and PW has to stop lying. I do expect things to miraculously start to happen after the TSX delist though...

[tournesol] 17/4/2019 07:59

In my opinion the information provided by the company about timing is not reliable and the information provided about prospects is confused/confusing. The combination means that this is not an investable proposition.

It might well turn out ok and deliver an excellent return, but it's black box and I refuse to invest if I can't clearly see what the company is doing.

[swindon41] 17/4/2019 07:04

I think we all feel shafted by Squelchie's failure to deliver .....some feel deceived & lied to, others just feel disrespected by him. Most of us think the share price will fall below 30p before recovering.

[zebbo] 16/4/2019 23:02

When everyone has lost interest, tends to be a good buy signal. SDX looking v cheap

[shakeypremis] 16/4/2019 10:40

This town, is coming like a ghost town...

[4mrb] 11/4/2019 16:16

Pathfinder down over 26% - what a bell end !

[napoleon 14th] 11/4/2019 10:17

tournesol - I enjoyed reading that & agree with what's said.
I'm also in HUR &, more recently, PMG, to which I might add.

As for the rump/runt of my SDX, it's on borrowed time.

[napoleon 14th] 11/4/2019 09:56

WEALTH WARNING!

ssrover is ramping PFP here, there & everywhere, including the thread of that wash-out called 7DIG.

PFP just raised some funds & share price is down this a.m., I said DOWN.
There's a lot of shares looking for a home IMO.
Have a long hard look at it before commiting....

Anyone who knows the story of KMR knows what I'm saying and why I'm saying it.

[shakeypremis] 11/4/2019 08:27

I too have lost all faith in the words of Squelcho. He has been lying. I'm not sure if that's due to incompetence on the part of SDX or wether he is lying for a different reason. My last shreds of confidence are drawn from the two large shareholders not selling anything. I'll wait to see what happens after the delist. I do expect them to buy more shares.

[tournesol] 10/4/2019 23:37

Yes but the basic story that is emerging from SDX is of very poor management of expectations and even worse management of execution. First they told us that SD was one huge gas accumulation with additional drilling targets connected to the original then the story changed. Then they talked about the potential for oil in the deep target. Then that went quiet. Then they said that production would start Q4/18. Then they missed that without very much at all in the way of explanation. Then they said Q2/19. Now they are waffling about it being Q4/19. Only the credulous will place any reliance on that.

They seem to me to be making it up as they go along. And their communication is very very undisciplined. Welch just keeps letting his mouth run away with him.

I find it instructive to compare/contrast with my other E&P holdings.

HUR is managing the execution of a massive project with astonishing precision and with excellent communication. They are giving a master class in development engineering, project management and delivering against promises. And that's on a very big project. And it's not in an easy location. North of the Shetlands in Winter is demanding. The potential here is gargantuan.

PMG is practising the art of Zen meditation - they say very little. They promise nothing and there is an eery and un-natural calm around their strategic project which is moving like a glacier. But they do not make and break promises and they do not constantly spend hours of their time doing video conferences with the Great Walrus and rambling on about their plans whilst failing to deliver. When things do happen, they are positive surprises as was evidenced in the recent results. And T Cross has a track record of speaking very little and moving very slow, but somehow getting a lot done. This is why the share price is so perky.

By contrast, SDX is doing a pretty small scale project on dry land in conditions which are not physically demanding. There are local cultural issues to deal with, but nothing that warrants the delays being encountered. It seems to me that they are just not up to the job.

I bailed out of SDX a few days ago. The proceeds from that sale might well go into one or the other of the above, even though they are already my 2 biggest holdings.

[ssrover] 10/4/2019 22:28

o/t heads up for tomorrows multi bagger. PFP (pathfinder minerals)

PFP (Pathfinder minerals) LATE rns today mostly missed by the market.. £6m cap and funded with directors taking shares at a PREMIUM placing of 2p... HUGE HUGE news giving the green light after 8 years of waiting...
Today's RNS which is a real game changer. Its taken 8 long years and for the first time the light's turned green. The asset is huge with over 1bn and will be doing $323m a year for 30 years!?, and worth over 300m revenue annually and the current market cap (6m) is utterly and grossly disconnected.

ONLY 270 million shares in issue... Even A share price of 10p the mcap would be only £27m. Multi bagging right there.

[pol123] 10/4/2019 21:13

Another storm in a teacup. Not catastrophic by any means. Not much more to say, other than at this price we are looking very cheap indeed

[thegreatgeraldo] 09/4/2019 14:29

I'm assuming the kit is relatively basic, strip out the condensate & send any gas - methane, ethane, etc - to the pipeline.

[haideralifool] 09/4/2019 12:33

TGG I saw it as 2 possibilities. The first as you say, in which case it definitely is Q4.

The other (slim chance) is that this RNS is a negotiating gambit by SDX to get the other guys to blink first - in which case Q2 is doable. That was my reading of the RNS anyway. Of course the company may know full well already that it's Q4, but are letting us down 'gently'.