Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[shakeypremis] 09/2/2018 08:08

Two increased holding TR-1s out this morning. One from the start of December and the other from September! Both released today. Why? It's like everyone and their dog are conspiring to keep the share price down.

[lauders] 09/2/2018 06:02

So SDX spudded the recent well on 1st February it would appear and need 10-15 days so news should be this weekend at the earliest (poss. Monday RNS) or sometime next week. Let's hope that with the likely decline we are going to expereince with the share price today (again) that the news will be good (again). We will likely need it to be positive just to tread water!

[winnet] 07/2/2018 18:52

yep, "astonishing" indeed Malcolm.

I'll be astonished if I ever see this share in the 60's!

[christy41] 07/2/2018 12:04

MGW on Proactive this a.m ..

[thegreatgeraldo] 06/2/2018 19:26

Can't see any point in plucking guesstimates out of the air. At the start of the drilling campaign, from memory, the company were targeting 11/13bcf from the 7 dev wells.

[goldieshotz] 06/2/2018 19:00

GeraldoAll we have to go with is the flow test data and historical decline rates, which might be the same for the new 4 wells or it might not be. So it is a guess i am afraid.Sdx has only given us porosity and net pay with flow rates so We dont know the rock structure downhole, reservoir coverage, reservoir pressure at surface or reservoir pressure downhole, water content in the gas to surface or permeability of the rock downhole and we dont know the shut in build up time gradient. You'd need all that to work out a better indication of the reserves.Get all that i could narrow the figures, unfortunately we dont :(

[thegreatgeraldo] 06/2/2018 17:48

goldieschotz,

what do you base your figure of 19bcf from 4 wells on?

[shakeypremis] 06/2/2018 16:07

Good analysis Goldie. Usually the market is forward looking. It absolutely isn't with SDX.

[goldieshotz] 06/2/2018 15:56

I did some very rough guesstimate sums based on decline rates.Looks like 10bcf net from currently producing wells pre campaign19bcf net from the 4 successful wells out of 5 to flow to date. Still got 4 wells to go with kss-2 probably getting very close to target depth already. So 29bcf in total, purely based on historical decline rates of these wells as there little to none geo data in any of the wells to refine the number up or down. It could only be half this figure fwiw.29bcf is a fairly half decent amount but the fact this is worth three times as much as gas reserves discovered in egypt, it may as well have been a 90bcf discovery in south dissouq or a 45bcf discovery in Italy.The problem is some Insti investors buy or sell based on balance sheet working capital and value associated to reserves, they assign a base line value to reserves no matter the country. Therefore these itsy bitty pockets of gas we are finding are excellent profitably but we barely see the value of them in the share price until they are produced and sold to new customers.Unfortunately im beginning to think the share price will not move on the moroccan activities until the sales rates increase. Same for south dissouq as well.

[4mrb] 06/2/2018 15:54

so you keep saying and saying and saying. I think we get your point. zzzzz

[pjj71] 06/2/2018 14:20

so glad i dumped this dog.. just a shame i didnt short it!!!!

[hiddendepths] 06/2/2018 13:21

Yes, these may well be relatively short-lived wells. I think it's still a bit early to say how long they can stay at plateau and the shape of the tail. Still, they are exceedingly profitable and it looks as though they can quickly and easily replicate the trick with many new wells in the vicinity.

We still need to lose stock from the early investors who are cashing out, presumably to invest in other seedcorn opportunities. Once they're gone, I'm confident the shares will have a significant rerate as long as the numbers stack up.

[thegreatgeraldo] 06/2/2018 13:10

I'm working on a couple of bcf per well - potentially $20 mill of revenue ($15 mill net to SDX's 75% share) from a $2 mill well; with very low opex & no tax or royalties. Good business. (figures edited)

PW has said receivables are coming down, we'll see at the end of next month when the finals come out

[captainfatcat] 06/2/2018 13:10

Yes agree but there is a lot to like that small net pay zones with high porosity will yield commercial rates in wells that are quick and inexpensive to drill this possibly could lead to extending the known viable reservoir and bookable reserves.

[captain james t kirk] 06/2/2018 12:58

tgg
That's my point, it's the missing link in the jigsaw. I'm not too bothered about receivables. In effect we are just giving the Egyptian Govt a long line of credit. It doesn't really adversely affect the business. We will get paid.
But it would be nice to have some kind of reserve figure. Any thoughts ?

[thegreatgeraldo] 06/2/2018 12:54

Yes, but from virgin reservoirs for a few hours....which bears no relation to what can be sustainably produced over a number of years.

[captain james t kirk] 06/2/2018 12:50

captain
Food for thought. The cumulative flow rates of the 4 discoveries are 32.35 MMscfd.

[rollthedice] 06/2/2018 11:39

I agree Lauders that in some cases it's worth buying even in a dropping market but modest cap oil & gas shares aren't really a 'must have' in your portfolio in that scenario in my honest opinion. I like SDX and will hold what I've already got.

[thegreatgeraldo] 06/2/2018 11:23

Interesting in the US.... talk is of the Fed putting a slighter firmer touch on the brakes via an extra interest rate rise or two this year, but on the other hand someone's just fitted a turbo to the engine via massive tax cuts..... hmmmmm....

[lauders] 06/2/2018 11:14

Probably very sensible rollthedice. However there may be some companies where it is worth topping up before the markets stabalise. If they were good companies before there is no reason why they are suddenly worse. We have been here before and people have made money off such fear. May be waiting to see whether the US keeps dropping (buy those companies at lower prices) or not first though.

[rollthedice] 06/2/2018 11:06

Until markets stabilise I'm not interested in topping up any share! I think SDX will come good but I want to see some financials before I add here.

Dow futures pointing towards another big hit this afternoon (-300 to -600)

[paleje] 06/2/2018 10:38

Malcy today -

'The recent visit to SDX in Morocco showed that these expectations are totally achievable and that this production is extraordinarily high margin, today’s fall in the share price as a result of recent market weakness is therefore an opportunity not to be missed.'

Trouble is, you could run out of cash mopping up all the 'opportunities not to miss' with this company, frustrating indeed.

[duckdown] 06/2/2018 09:50

Remember that 120million shares have been issued in placings over the past year or so.

Whoever is selling is happy to take profits in the 45-50p range.

This should prove to be a floor once the seller has cleared and I think there will be a sharp correction when the time comes.

[darola] 06/2/2018 09:39

At current MC you'd expect a few of the bigger players to be running a slide rule over SDX. At some point this has to give or we'll end up financing our own takeover - although it would have to be at s premium from here and I think most folk are bored enough they'd except it....

[shakeypremis] 06/2/2018 08:35

Of course it wont Lauders.