Scottish & Newcastle Share Discussion Threads

[tokyogirl] 05/8/2005 13:40

While coogar is basking in his own reflected glory as usual...lying on the floor in a long corridor, sctn is definately miles away from his target of 514 and slowly getting closer to my target of 445. LOMBLMTO! Looking at the candle sticks, anything over 465 will now act as resistance.
M, you mentioned the other day that sctn brand value is next to deflation, if consumer confidence fell off the table, how long would it take for sctn brand to be negatively affected? Based on the fundamentals, at what price you will be happy buying sctn? Will 430 do?

Off topic, just got back from sunny and happy Canet after 2 weeks of beach walkinng and swimming in the sea... I'm really falling in love with South of France.

[coogar] 05/8/2005 11:00

Mad

I may well regret holding RSA beyond next week's results but my current apathy says I will!

No thoughts at all on OML.

What does one do when every stock in your portfolio has performed to target, is either trading respectably or ripe for recovery or takoever (or both) and has a good or specttacular yield?!

Not wise to sit back on your laurels for too long, but that's exactly what I have been doing of late. My only foray into an area of risk recently was to buy TTG which has since bombed by about 7% yet such is my confidence I have no intention to sell that either.

I think I need a lie down...

[madgooner] 04/8/2005 21:58

coogar, I've exited rsa, mainly on the back of the overhyped spike on regan's bid. Any thoughts on oml?

A000

the rbs issue seems to be relative discount to peers (high growth v peers lower rating?) - I suspect disproportionate impact from the sch crossholding disposal. Its the Banking growth play, and a nice hedge for unexpectedly good bounce in world economic performance. The china approach seems both logical and sensible, but apparently the 'o' level financial journalists and city folk don't see it that way ;-)

I can wait. I wouldn't claim a 100% record though...

Also any thoughts on itk?

[coogar] 04/8/2005 21:34

I am still a trifle edgy on these, however will continue to HOLD.

I note that a broker issued an 'underperform' rating today, though of course that does not necessarily equate to a falling share price.

Don't think I'd be buying at these levels.

RSA reached my target price (92p) today, giving me a 100% success rate with my current portfolio. Another very good yielder. Results due next week. Will I regret holding on to that one, I wonder?

[a0002577] 04/8/2005 16:02

Hmmm... RBS still hasn't reached its low for the year yet : which was 1574 - never mond last years low which was 1464.

Anyway - banks have had a good run - so I have put dosh into SCTN and other non - banks. Kind regards - A000

[madgooner] 04/8/2005 14:28

Either Banks are going to be the buying opportunity of the year, or there will be widespread difficulty IMO. RBS delivered (more or less) but 8/9 times earnings?

[a0002577] 04/8/2005 14:17

Hi Madgooner : with the results due out next Tuesday, it seemed like a good time to buy back in.

I agree with you about the FT-SE being toppy at the moment - but the actual index is driven up by Banks and Pharma and VOD and of course the Oils.

So - this is not a bad share and I am expecting results to be at the top end of expectations.

We shall see... Kind regards A000

[pc4900074200] 04/8/2005 13:00

The Scotsman. 04-08-2005.

S&N-Carlsberg Baltic venture gains market share.

MARTIN FLANAGAN. CITY EDITOR.

BALTIC Beverages Holdings, the drinks joint venture between Scottish & Newcastle and Carlsberg, unveiled strong interim results yesterday, but said no date has been set for an EGM to approve its controversial Russian consolidation plans.

BBH, in results largely overshadowed by the quarrel with dissident shareholders in Baltika, its biggest Russian brewing company, revealed that first-half underlying earnings rose 26 per cent to €215 million (£148.5m).

Earnings in the more recent second quarter rose by roughly the same percentage to €147m.

John Nicolson, chairman of BBH and head of S&N's international operations, said the star-turn markets in the period were Russia and Kazakhstan, with volume growth of 17 and 61 per cent respectively.

BBH is Russia's biggest brewer and, on the back of a 10 per cent increase in marketing expenditure, its market share increased by four percentage points to 36 per cent.

Nicolson confirmed that a court case was due to begin in Russia on 18 August, when BBH and its parent companies would dispute claims that its plans to consolidate a handful of Russian breweries were being carried out unethically.

He said: "We have done nothing unethical and nothing questionable. We are very confident that our legal position is sound."

Under BBH's plans, Baltika would buy out the minority shareholdings in four other breweries, beginning with Pikra.

However, some minority shareholders in Baltika have voted down the plan at a recent EGM, as their lawyers allege Baltika would be overpaying for the assets and would be loaded up with debt in order to beef up the balance sheets of S&N and Carlsberg.

Nicolson said yesterday that no new date had been set for an EGM to try to get the consolidation vote through, but said the strategic plan remained intact.

Instead, Nicolson repeated that BBH would be meeting the minority shareholders to explain their plans in greater detail.

pc

[a0002577] 03/8/2005 16:17

so we are expecting a breakout : upwards I trust - as I have just bought some more. We'll leave LLOY out then.

[madgooner] 03/8/2005 16:16

fwiw, staying out for now. Can't believe the ftse strength won't buckle soon. Better news on services impacts on interest rate expectations, and the behaviour of the Bank shares and longer term interest rates suggest the market is unconvinced on outlook too.

Think the Yuan revaluation will add to inflationary pressures and cnsumer isn't gonna easily recover, all in all I'm pretty negative on where this ends.

Mind you defensives prevail in such environments.

[coogar] 03/8/2005 15:57

Be careful, it won't range trade for ever!

As for LLOY, it might be best all round if Ace filtered me again. It is he who always comes back wanting the last word, even though on many (lost count) occasions he has resolutely stated that he refuses to respond to me any further... but always does! (I knew he wouldn't filter me for long, contrary to what he infers in his posts, he loves the fight)

Thank you (and Mad) for your support. I hear what you're saying, but as everyone surely knows by now, I have my own mind.

[a0002577] 02/8/2005 20:35

Hi coogar : I bought a few (only £10K) earlier this week : still have a long way to do though before my former holdings are fully restored. However, it's always nice to go immediately into profit.

If it is range trading, then I shall trade it - I just love doing that!

kind regards - A000

P.S. please mend your fences on the LLOY threads. MadG and I did give you a lot of support and it would be nice if you helped us out.

[coogar] 02/8/2005 18:31

Another nice bounce off 460p, however I am less confident for future prospects for the share price than I have been for some time.

In answer to your question A0: Because three times (or maybe only twice depending on your view of the chart, but even if that is the case it looks as if we now have a 'proper' double-top formation which is just as negative) it has failed to break above 490p and in charting terms that often later proves disasterous.

However, we still appear to be 'range-trading' here, and hopefully the eventual breakout will be ABOVE the current range (which I call at 460p-490p give or take)

Personally, while some will say I have become emotionally attached, I will continue to HOLD STCN through thick and thin. Reasons: Bought @ 368p giving me a current yield of 5.6% which against the current economic climate I think most will agree is not too bad. Further, although SCTN's trading prospects are probably not spectacular, neither are they doom and gloom. Finally of course, there is the possibility that one or two predator's are stalking.

[bigbobjoylove] 02/8/2005 16:12

from a man on the inside:::

there ramshackle breweries of england are knackered,under investment and years of running on shoestrings means things are'nt great.Trust me,hold 4000 shares from saye but looking to cash in.Ah i remember those heady days of 950p !!
Forget a t/o as well,ya dreamin.

[a0002577] 29/7/2005 22:36

Agreed, MadG

[madgooner] 29/7/2005 22:31

getting interesting for potential value buyers imo..

[a0002577] 29/7/2005 19:02

In what way coogar?

[coogar] 29/7/2005 18:37

Today's fall could turn out to be significant

[coogar] 26/7/2005 20:04

SCTN share price continues to look weak, even though it remains 100p+ above my purchase price.

So, is this another buying opportunity or are we about to see an imminent break down through the 460p support level? Girlie, if that happens then you might get your 445p after all... but I guess you already know that LOL

Me? I'm HOLDing firm, until the dying death (or takeoever, whichever comes sooner LOL)

[coogar] 25/7/2005 21:12

Not IF but WHEN ;)

[a0002577] 25/7/2005 14:54

Thanks for that Siskinbird : interesting but the Times reports over the weekend about 'Russian Investors' being somewhat annoyed is possibly more significant at the moment.

If you want to see what can happen to a company in Russia when things go really wrong in this way have a look at the main thread on SBE (Sibir Energy). The effect on them of some of these dubious share deals has been devastating for the share price

[a0002577] 25/7/2005 10:54

Price slipping again - and interim results due out shortly. Also seems to be out of favour with the press. Any ideas where it is going - cos I am still waiting to buy back in?

[coogar] 21/7/2005 19:44

There already appears to be many incestuous relationships in the brewing industry... whoever decides to take SCTN out (and someone will, just don't know when)

[coogar] 19/7/2005 13:17

AO

I think that one had been on the cards for a while. I've no idea how much cash SAB will have left after that deal. Then of course, there's always Heineken.

p.s. I was only teasing her too.