Scottish Mortgage Invest... Share Discussion Threads

[fwatson] 25/1/2024 17:11

Start of a new upward trend here? I've just bought in this week at £7.56 and plan to keep adding over the coming months. I struggled to find an ETF that contained the sort of companies I like and this seems like a good mix giving me good tech/AI exposure and the investment into space x got me excited...

[quepassa] 25/1/2024 16:04

ASML

breaks through Euro 800

and is UP another 4.5% today.

[quepassa] 24/1/2024 17:27

ASML

-ScoMo's top holding-

ends today's session at

+ 9.7%.


A new All-Time-High at Euro 775

[hazl] 24/1/2024 16:44

Thanks Q.
For ease.

[steeplejack] 24/1/2024 10:04

ASML number one holding at end of last year partially by default due to steep decline in Moderna price..Discount to assets around 10% on my calculation.As such not that dissimilar to discount applied to Polar Capital and Alliance Tech.As WC Fields quipped..."I never voted for anyone,only ever voted against".Biden and Kamala Harris will see Trump back in the White House.

[quepassa] 24/1/2024 08:40

What the bookies think. US Presidential 2024 elections


1. Republican candidate

Trump 1-16

Haley 14-1

2. Democratic candidate

Biden 1-3

Michelle Obama 10-1


3. Next US President

Trump 1-1
Biden 2-1

[quepassa] 24/1/2024 08:10

ASML

+7% this morning

[quepassa] 24/1/2024 07:18

ASML.

Blow-out figures this morning from ScoMo's top holding, smashing analyst expectations.


ASML increases full year 2023 Revenue by 30% to Euro 7.2 billion

Net profit rises to Euro 2.05 billion.



Last reported December holding in ASML by ScoMo was 6.8% of portfolio - likely to be 7% or more by now.


This is a CNBC link to latest ASML news:-

hXXps://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/24/asml-earnings-report-q4-and-full-year-2023.html



ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[lord loads of lolly] 23/1/2024 23:13

SMT generally traded fairly close to NAV until early 2022, when the discount really widened.

I see the recent narrowing of this gap again as a firm positive.

[arja] 23/1/2024 15:53

quite nice looking uptrending chart but discount to NAV now down to only 7% which is a concern I think ! maybe not as it used to trade at a premium a few years ago from memory :)

[hazl] 23/1/2024 09:28

Time for a little reminder perhaps.

'

Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust PLC (SMT) 19 January 2024
Legal Entity Identifier : 213800G37DCS3Q9IJM38
Cum Par NAV 827.05p

Cum Fair NAV 853.31p

Ex Par NAV 826.44p

Ex Fair NAV 852.70p

'

[quepassa] 23/1/2024 09:11

Big news for China Stock markets.

China is considering a MASSIVE stock market stimulus package to prop up it stock markets - reportedly mobilising up to $278 BILLION for investment.

Many articles on the web today.

For example, CNBC

hXXps://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/23/china-reportedly-weighs-measures-to-support-stock-markets-could-mobilize-278-billion-.html

No wonder the Hang Seng is up 2.6% today.


all imo. dyor.
qp

[septblues] 22/1/2024 15:36

performance is all backward looking

[takeiteasy] 22/1/2024 13:27

A picture paints 1,000 words - at some point the pressure from stakeholders for the sheer size of this performance gap may encourage the managers to address the tail of poor performers e.g. meituan down another 5% today etc etc




no advice intended about buying any of these funds and dyor....

[hazl] 21/1/2024 19:09

I think that is worth reiterating!

'billions'.


on Nvidia graphics processing units
this year as it builds the computing infrastructure needed .

[hazl] 21/1/2024 19:06

Well steeple I am inclined to think they have plenty more research teams than the individual.
In which case I am inclined to trust their judgement.
Very difficult to second guess individual companies, in this market, just by their share price.
Look at the economic backdrop we have generally and the geopolitics affecting everything at the moment.


Again some people think we are in a new revolution in technology.

'Meta Platforms (META) rose 2% after CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the company would spend billions on Nvidia graphics processing units this year as it builds the computing infrastructure needed to prioritize artificial intelligence.
'

Seems very logical to me just by the above.


IMO

[hazl] 21/1/2024 18:59

Markets News, Jan. 19, 2024: S&P 500 Closes at Record High as Tech Leads Broad Stock Rally
By Colin Laidley

' The S&P 500 clinched its first record close in over two years Friday as yesterday's chip stock rally morphed into an everything rally.

The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.7% Friday to close above 15,300 for the first time in two years. The S&P 500 gained 1.2% to close at 4,839.80, its highest close since January 4, 2022. '
'
Meta Platforms (META) rose 2% after CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the company would spend billions on Nvidia graphics processing units this year as it builds the computing infrastructure needed to prioritize artificial intelligence.
'

'

[steeplejack] 21/1/2024 10:42

It has an enviable long term track record but has clearly had a relatively disappointing last couple of years.By its own admission,SMT were slow to lighten positions in China as the geopolitical situation deteriorated.It made a bit of a hash of chasing the Moderna price.Whilst i’m not against a high percentage of unquoted,SMT are up against the 30% limit which precludes taking new positions without reshuffling and private companies aren’t listing with the speed and regularity that occurred in the past ie twenty years to come to market against 4 years a quarter of a century back.As noted in the press,Polar Capital and Alliance Technology have significantly outperformed SMT of late and i don’t see that changing short term all things considered.

[hazl] 21/1/2024 09:51

First they claim they haven't sold at a high then they say they have sold some and they don't like it.

[hazl] 21/1/2024 09:49

A lot of naysayers on the board . We have had a bounce back as they have in the Nasdaq.I think we have some strong contenders and they are betting against that's human nature for you!SMT is a great fund in my opinion.

[careful] 20/1/2024 08:56

Share price here nothing to do with fundamentals.
Old fashioned stuff like PE and yield do not come into it.

Punters rush in it goes up, punters sell it falls.
Still way overvalued.

[takeiteasy] 20/1/2024 08:26

One of the holdings that I did like got sold recently that again is simply so hard to understand timings wise

hxxps://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4142595/scottish-mortgage-sells-illumina

hxxps://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/illumina-stock-buy-rating-strong-q4-performance-and-strategic-grail-resolution-as-catalysts-1032959786

And so from the sale in November the stock rallies c.40%

Illumina’s fourth quarter revenue of $1.115 billion exceeded both the firm’s and Street’s projections, showcasing notable performance. The shipment of 79 NovaSeq X systems surpassed Souda’s expectations, totaling 352 installations for the year and beating Illumina’s own guidance. Furthermore, the operating margins presented significant improvement, with the core Illumina margin ending the fourth quarter at 18%, thereby rounding up the year’s operating margin to 19.8%, which is higher than anticipated.

anyway they are the experts heh ho :)

[takeiteasy] 20/1/2024 08:19

By giving so much performance away from the gains in the big hitters like ASML and Nvidia they are opening themselves up to all the criticisms here about why on earth are the rival funds performing so much better - Alliance a dull and safe global income fund is well ahead over 3 years which should not really be happening for the level of volatility risk captured within the fund.

i have just looked on the filter in morningstar selecting global funds - and SMT is now behind all of the following funds on performance over 1 , 3 and 5 years
Brunner, AVI global, Alliance and Midwynd

Not that one year performance means anything to anyone but it is 72% down against the best performing global trust over one year :)

[takeiteasy] 20/1/2024 08:16

I think the article above is helpful but misses the single most important failing on this fund imvho is over how they manage the public holdings in terms of taking profits (e.g. moderna) and managing the tail of smaller stocks.

You may say what the heck does it matter how a small 1% to 2% holding pans out as the company will say it helps with diversification. The issue is that some of these holdings are literally multi -year collapse stories that were sells ages ago and are still being punished in 2024 for not being sold - take a few examples for 2024 YTD changes i.e. in past 20 days alone:
Ginkgo bioworks - down 27%
Meituan - down 13%
Tencent - down 9%
Nio - down 28%
delivery hero - down 9%
zalando -down 21%

I could go on, and sadly i wish the number was much lower...

"Nevertheless, the portfolio managers, under close scrutiny of the Board, have identified potential improvements to both processes and tactics which should improve the balance of the portfolio. These include being more rigorous in recognising stocks that have had a good run and taking profits where appropriate, and being more ruthless in addressing issues in the tail of the portfolio where the portfolio managers may have tended in the past to err on the side of patience."

The text above was published by BG about the EWI trust this past week and I simply wish the same humility would be applied by the SMT owners. I simply cannot fathom an investment process that fails to manage the tail effectively.

I would love one day to buy back in here, but will only do so when there is a change of risk management and all of the stuff that should not be in a flagship global fund - I will let them decide as the experts are removed from the tail. I offer the above for the starters for their next review meeting - lols....dyor and no advice intended etc