Sci Entertainment Share Discussion Threads

[darrens] 22/10/2008 16:30

Rob, that's certainly one interpretation and fits in with the rest of the interview that I've read. If that's true then they are mad. Not for piracy but for the other reasons you mentioned and some you didn't.

I don't want to slam into them too hard because it isn't clear that's the right interpretation but if that turns out to be true then it just compounds the whole Montreal mistake.

[uncle-bob] 22/10/2008 16:12

Clearly the Deus Ex team are investing everything into making a great PC game, because the original did well on PC and it's the right kind of demographic etc. Then, they'll port the game with the help of extra funding from PC game sales.

And that's really really stupid. PC=piracy=way to kill the release. By the time the console ports come out, everyone will have downloaded the game illegally (ok, maybe 200k genuine sales on PC). It's also much harder to get excited about a console port of an earlier PC release - both the press and consumers see it as old news, and possibly an inferior product.

Basically, they've killed Deus Ex. It can no longer do AAA sales, IMHO.

Discuss.

[dope007] 22/10/2008 14:24

Deux EX should be out on PS3 and xbox 360. not to be is just riddiculus

[darrens] 22/10/2008 14:19

'Speaking to Edge, Deus Ex 3 lead designer Jean-Francois Dugas has revealed while the game is definitely coming to PC, the team isn't sure which other platforms the highly anticipated title is coming to.

"At this point we don't know exactly which platforms we're going to be out on," said Dugas. "The PC, we'll be there for sure."'

What?!

[the crypt] 22/10/2008 13:21

TOGGLEBRUSH - IT will improve, you got to have faith as you watch your wealth dissappear. the problem here is the management. there is no faith in them, hence the low share price, i reckon tw will build a bigger stake and then bring in their guys to take the company forward. at the rogers and motley gang have achieved very little. And they, have have no faith in SEG under their control, as they don't hold and won't buy hardly any shares.

[togglebrush] 22/10/2008 09:22

Little sign in the market volumes of the Robert T sale or any other major movement. Total volume this month is 11 million deals or say 5.5 million shares which is diddly squat for the reported action.

[periorellis] 22/10/2008 08:50

i wondered what happened to the 9m shares RBS sold last friday...

[the crypt] 22/10/2008 08:07

toggle bet you wished you held off and bought today! oh well, yiou can never get the bottom. Hard luck my good friend. They will go up and you will make a tidy gain.

[togglebrush] 22/10/2008 07:59

Yes just my usual luck

[bethany3] 21/10/2008 22:29

TW's recent purchase is good news to SEG even though it's only 5m - word was that they were beaten to the remainder by institutional investors who knew TW was after them. Also, the immediate resignation of the TW executive added fuel to the theory that TW was running a slide rule over SEG. If true TW won't have it all their own way - I'm sure Infogrames would enter the frame as well.
Today's slight slide in share price is mainly down to profit taking - share price is still way below open offer share price and with Tomb Raider release imminent watch out for fireworks!

[the crypt] 21/10/2008 22:13

lol nice one darrenspooper

[lionheart79] 21/10/2008 18:38

bet you wish you'd waited a few hours toggle...

[darrens] 21/10/2008 16:35

Okay, my last word...

SO LONG AS THEY START ONE DAY to generate cash. Well, I'd argue they are generating cash today and yesterday (the successful ones) but they've chosen, admittedly without asking the shareholders explicitly if this was okay, to re-invest it in their own businesses so they could grow with the market.

Not by growing the budgets of the games, but buy increasing the breadth of their portfolios, i.e. the number of games.

It wasn't so long ago that EA was just FIFA and Madden, Activision was just Tony Hawks, Ubisoft was Rayman and Eidos was, er, just Tomb Raider.

Like I say, the successful ones.

[queeny2] 21/10/2008 12:18

I want the last word.

re yr point 1, I haven't added it all up either, but my hunch would be different to yours.

You would of course need to add in all exceptional and extraordinary items such as SEG's huge write-offs, not just above-the-line items.

When i have done this in the past I haven't used p&l numbers, cos that depends on accounting practices, but I have looked at cash generation over long periods, which is awful, but your answer will be they have built assets, fair enough SO LONG AS THEY START ONE DAY to generate cash. As MSFT did of course. And as Sky never have.

And now I promise I'll drop it, you can have the last word and that will be it! :)

[dope007] 21/10/2008 11:01

On Point 2 - Microsoft reinvested it all for a very long time until being virtually forced to pay a token dividend ;)

[darrens] 21/10/2008 10:59

queeny, cash, I don't recall and I don't have it written down anywhere. But I'm working on the basis that the cash they have going forward will be the cash that TRU generates. Obviously they'll be cash positive after the game but will there be enough?

You can't say you're going to drop it and then have the last word ;)

So, I'm going to drop it...

1. My comment was about profitability of individual publishers (very choppy). I've never looked aggregate for the industry but I'd expect it to be going up each year.

2. It reinvests to grow. We've been round this enough times so I can't say anything I haven't before so I guess you're unconvinced.

3. Yes, 1st party are also competing...but they do take a decent royalty on every game made and that's where they really recoup. Well, with the possible exception of Nintendo who seem to be the dominant publisher on their hardware...again.

There, I've dropped it.

[togglebrush] 21/10/2008 10:35

Added a few today ... on general principals ... positive noises off stage and low prices

[darrens] 21/10/2008 10:22

queeny, I think I'm going to have to take issue with your "industry characterised by arms race" line because I think there's a danger of this somehow becoming received wisdom without anybody really knowing what it means.

Games are costing more to make. Publishers are spending more to market them. I don't disagree with that. But the dynamics of these companies are such that (within limits) the cost of production and the marketing budgets are down the list of things which affect their success/failure.

What matters is how well the games sell and what makes games sell is a complicated business but it certainly isn't down to cost to sell.

I know this isn't a "black and white" issue so I'm not trying to say that this is irrelevant, but I don't think it's right to characterise the industry as being in an arms race. At least, no more than any other maturing industry.

[dealy] 21/10/2008 09:49

Queeny

How do you know they are already dipping into their facility? They had £25m or something at the end of June. Also, consolidation is a key component of competitive industries some of the bigger players have an interest in getting bigger via acquisistions.

[queeny2] 21/10/2008 09:42

I suppose when its fundamentals merit it, or at least don't make it a blindingly obvious lockaway for 6 months. Scidos has been an ever-weakening bit part player in an industry characterised by arms race, and is dipping into its facility even as we speak to launch TRU and keep developing other games.

Who are the biggest? MSFT, ERTS Activision, UBI et al, and they seem to be getting bigger and better. Scidos are the Wimbledon of the league - if you can pick them at 100:1 when they do win the FA Cup, great. This may be the time, as DS has said TRU could surprise on upside.

But you are right that investors are played out, PI's in particular.

I see a lot of these small cap shares that could actually go bust. What I would like to find is companies that can't, which also have chance of doubling - suggestions anyone?

[dealy] 21/10/2008 09:29

very quiet today. You wouldn't think the company might be about to be taken over would you?

[the crypt] 21/10/2008 08:09

wheres yer mustard????? nah, you boys are full of custard!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol lol

[pastasource] 20/10/2008 12:11

TRU to be used in one of a number of XBox360 bundles for Christmas. TRU pack launching 21st November according to the French site. Positive exposure anyway, and can only help sales. Not sure whether North American bundles will be the same or not.