Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Sci Entertainment Group LSE:SEG London Ordinary Share GB0007641797 ORD 5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 19.00p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0 06:37:39
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Travel & Leisure 118.9 -100.0 -136.3 - 49.38

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Date Time Title Posts
10/5/201220:36Scidos - SCi are the UK's No1 (Excl. DN)14,149
22/7/200905:51SCi Entertainment News and Background20
08/12/200811:30SCi Discussion 2008 onwards263
24/11/200819:42SEG with Charts & News8
03/10/200809:35SELL SEG ==== PRICE TARGET 2P60

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togglebrush: My thoughts on the depressed share price:- Robert Tchenguiz lost his CFD's held in the Icelandic banking debacle. They were held with:- Heatherville 42,857,140 CFD's (with a Thorson related company(. Some of these found homes with:- 14 Oct 08 Cazenove Capital Management Limited was 12,515,783 now 15,515,783 16 Oct Time Warner Entertainment Ltd was 37,518,080 now 42,518,080 This accounts for roughly 7 million. Volume in the markets has been thin and there were some 14 million trades since mid October which is possible 7 million shares changing hands. There were 42 million to sell and 7+7 or 14 million can be accounted for. That leaves roughly 28 million shares as a market overhang. This could be One reason why the share price is depressed. A Second reason is that Blue Chip shares are very volatile some having daily swings of 15% and that traders can make less risky returns. Plus many bank Rights Issues absorbing money. They are not trading Small Cap shares. Mid February, when the Annual Results are out, may be the time these shares recover. In the meanwhile AGM is NEXT Tuesday.
togglebrush: The demise of Robert Tchenguiz as quietly been expected for some time. It may have had some influence on the SEG share price. The example of Mitchell and Butlers may be an indication of his effect on share prices Mitchell and Butlers shares were just under £9 a share in the summer of 2007. At the time there was discussion with Robert Tchenguiz, who owned 25% of their shares, for a complex deal including a REIT. The credit crunch started and by September 2007 they were have to write off a loss of £140 million. The last day of this September the MAB share price was 219.25p. Robert Tchenguiz sold out at 130p. It jumped up latter the same day to 163p. Robert Tchenguiz relationship with Sainsbury's was often believed to be an uneasy one. Their share price also reflected this.
togglebrush: DarrenS you are like a one eyed man playing an old gramophone repeating the same tune because the needle is stuck. The games market is changing. From the recent final results I quote "Our industry is growing through a broadening demographic appeal of games, increasing spend among gamers, longer product cycles and new online opportunities." There is the need to continue to appeal to the core gamer. But a new larger market is opening up. In the past year I have noticed Chemist shops, Supermarkets, Stationers, Book shops selling consoles (mainly Wii and DS with some Sony) and games. This month I have seen; at an English Wedding pre school age boys played with a DS in church: at a Swedish restaurant pre teenage girls playing on a pink DS: and at a Mediterranean marina there was a squabble between various pre teenage children over video games: in airport lounges passengers of all ages were amusing themselves with video games. In the last results 60% of unit sales were from none AAA games. These units cost roughly the same as AAA games but appear to cost less to produce. Results also show sales in Europe as the largest geographical sector. Prices in Europe and UK are much higher than North America and I would suspect have higher margins (Tomb Raider Underworld: PS3 £39.99 v $59.99 DS £24.99 v $29.99). Earlier I compared the projected games of UBI and SEG. They covered the same consoles and in proportion SEG was forecasting more games (if they can deliver them). SEG is covering same markets as other publishers. The £200 m revenue figure for 0809 has been around for some time and I have posted forecasts based on it. Earlier I have suggested that Tomb Raider may account for up to 40% of that figure. It is an established franchise, that usually do well, and is on a full range of consoles. It should make a major contribution BUT IT IS NOT A ONE PRODUCT COMPANY. Management The old Battersea team were a smaller company that had the fortune to take over a much larger EIDOS. Phil Rogers comes from a senior position at EA, one of the biggest in the business (Phil was Vice President, Corporate Development at Electronic Arts Inc). His handling of the Open Offer and Placing was a business school classic (see earlier postings). Jurgen Goeldner, COO (non Board), has 25 years experience in the worldwide video games market having held senior executive roles in a number of organisations including Funsoft and THQ. Robert Brent brings extensive knowledge of SCi through his 5 years of researching and analysing our business and the video gaming sector as a whole. He had eight years experience at KBC Peel Hunt. I think your continuing personal attacks on them are unwarranted. Share Price The two big money investors are into this company at a price of 120p to 150p (depending on how you do the numbers). Robert Tchenguiz is known to play the markets and he may have reduced his price a little. Valentines Day 2009 and we may have a better view of the share price.
darrens: Well, I've been turning my mind to SCi to try and really get a handle on whether these are worth a "proper" investment. I thought I'd share my thoughts with the (few) people remaining here to see what others think. Not quite sure how to do it but here are a list of bullet point with pros/cons. Tomb Raider Underworld + Initial previews have been positive and along the lines of evolution, not revolution. It's not going to break any new ground but it looks like it will be another good one. + They've managed to sort out a simultaneous release across all formats + It's being released at the sales peak. Titles that do well at Thanksgiving/Xmas tend to do very well. - It's being released amongst all the biggest titles. Already we know that Call of Duty is being released the week before and it will go head to head with Prince of Persia. There are always big-name casualties at this time of year because there just isn't the space for all the big games that come out. - N. American's have fallen out of love with Lara (based on sales of previous iterations) and there's nothing in this one to suggest that trend is going to be broken. Warner's are publishing in N. America but not sure yet if that's a negative or positive. 08/09 Release schedule We now know this year's release schedule. It's Tomb Raider Underworld, Batman: Arkham Asylum , Just Cause 2, Monster Lab, Champ Mgr 09 and Battlestations: Pacific. They're also bunging out Shellshock (and presumably Highlander?) but nobody expects anything of those. + That's a pretty good release schedule with lots of sequels to successful" games and licensed product. - With the exception of TRU there are no bankers in there. It's possible that all the rest will crash and die at retail - none of them are strong enough franchises to guarantee a minimum level of sales. Management + The last set of management were lots of things that the current management aren't: experienced, been through the fire, know the games industry and the major players inside out...and they messed it all up. So, the current management, untried and untested though they are, surely can't be any worse? - The current management are way out of their depth and have no track record in the positions that they currently fill. Will the job maketh the man? Financials At today's share price, SCi are on a market cap of over £80m. I've yet to see any notes but the FT quoted them as saying they were looking to do turnover of £180m-£200m. Again, I've not seen any notes but there's been talk of 5-8% margins so that equates to a profit of £9m-£16m (edit - Citigroup forecasting £6.8m, strangely on the same revenue). + If they achieve their target numbers then that puts them on a prospective p/e of 5-9. Far too low for a company that has demonstrated (which it will have done to get those sort of numbers) it has turned itself around. Call it a p/e of 15-20 and then taking all averages that gives a share price target of around 85p. - Inevitably there's a huge risk around achieving those numbers. The quoted turnover figure is pretty bullish and they've obviously assuming that all the games will succeed to some extent or another. I think it's a solid release schedule but it's a fair bet that one or two of them are going to disappoint when it comes down to sales Conclusion I think my conclusion is "wait and see". If everything goes to plan then there's some serious upside to the share price but there's huge risk in their schedule. The major piece is TRU. It's got to be their biggest selling title this year and their biggest cash contributor. Of the rest, some will probably do better than expected, some will probably do worse but if TRU doesn't put in a good performance then the outturn is shot for the year and they could be struggling for cash too. Thoughts?
darrens: Dope - that's the industry though isn't it. The share price of even the biggest companies is a hostage to the fortune of their biggest games. I mean Microsoft share price went up considerably on the back of the Halo 3 success. Okay, you can get big enough so it doesn't come down to survival but for investors like us then it always come down to the big franchises to work out where the share price is going of any of the publishers.
togglebrush: If you wonder why the share price is in such a tight range you should look at the activities of the two house brokers PEEL HUNT and CITIGROUP. They publish a daily RNS and the latest details are below. They are having a controlling effect on the share price. Buying and Selling shares to do the same. On the day in question they accounted for one in eight of the volume as shown on ADVFN. While this operation is underway the share price is unlikely to move by very much. Trading data ex ADVFN for 13 June Open 49.00 High 49.75 Low 48.25 Close 49.50 Volume 844,232 Name of exempt principal KBC PEEL HUNT LTD Date of dealing 13 JUNE 2008 2. DEALINGS Total number______Highest price paid_____Lowest price paid purchased 16,479_____________49.275p________________49.263p Total number______Highest price received_Lowest price received sold 61,932_____________51.97p_________________49.63p Name of exempt principal Citigroup Global Markets UK Date of dealing 13 JUNE 2008 2. DEALINGS Total number______Highest price paid_____Lowest price paid purchased 25,000_____________49.000p________________49.000p Total number______Highest price received_Lowest price received sold Nil_________________________________
togglebrush: Fantasy Island forecast. Last Week in May...if these two are good then Company re starts on the front foot: 1...Completion of Open Offer and a report of take up. 2...Sales report from First week of "Age of Conan". Sometime in July there may be an RNS re "The cost reduction plan previously announced, to reduce operating costs by £14 million has commenced and is expected to be completed by 30 June 2008." St Ledger day or thereabouts in September ... Annual report for 2007/8 and an expected possible £40 million loss, but the main attention will be on the OUTLOOK. Fireworks night in November is followed by launch of new "Tomb Raider: Underworld". After the extra polish created by delay (June to Nov) and being launched on more platforms (3 to 6) it is hoped for a spectacular launch. Valentines Day 2009 ... or thereabouts in 2009 ... Interims and hoped for back in PROFIT (say £5-6 million)...possible share price between 70p and 87p One Year later ...possible share price between 140p and 180p. Nothing like the period 1993 to 1999 when the EIDOS share price rose over 400 times (source Wikipedia), but just a steady progress. DYOR Addendum: Any Takeover bid will be at 40% to 50% above these Share prices
nickcduk: Not surprising its a rights issue and an open offer. The open offer will allow those interested parties to get a major stake. The rights element allows existing shareholders the chance to join in the fund raising. The key here will be at what price the deal gets done. Anything around the current price will be good news and should move the share price higher. It is annoying that SEG decide to make an announcement on the fund raising after the share price gets trashed. They could easily have put this announcement last week when the share price closed above 60p. Instead they have had to put it out from a position of weakness this afternoon. Today's action to drive the price lower probably stemmed from those with an ulterior motive. No doubt they are looking for the placing/rights price to be as low as possible. Not holding much hope that the FSA might investigate these scoundrels.
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robin_of_loxley: dealy - 12 Jan'08 - 10:33 - 8896 of 9341 life of crime that is so true what you say about the difference between public and private companies. In private companies the value is multiple of Ebitda or a DCF on a business plan plus or minus a bit depending on intangibles. With a publicly listed company the share price is used as a basis for the valuation of the business. If either through shorting, panic selling or lack of appreciation a share price falls then it becomes no longer possible to argue sensibly about the "fair value". You've hit the nail on the head here. What's the value of being public if the share price is used against you? Look no further than the hundreds of AIM stocks that have to raise money at a discount to the share price and the share price is already a) extremely low and b) manipulated in advance of precisely such a placing.
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