Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[panama7] 29/11/2018 15:15

Tosh, spot on but I don't know why you even bother giving him the satisfaction of knowing that you read his posts. His posts have been utter inane gibberish for so long now they are not worth reading, they only feed his ego.

[tosh123] 29/11/2018 13:43

What a total hypocrite .... the latest offering from the inept one is ;- ... "Shareholders take the price down .... with thinking like this in the investment community Scancell does not stand a chance as pessimism drowns out optimism " .

Coming from someone that has been proven to have sold shares on numerous occasions, it is hypocritical to point the finger at " other " shareholders when he has been guilty of exactly the same thing... what an oaf.

I would further venture that the main reason why shareholders have seen fit to sell out, is the lack of delivery from the BOD.
As previously stated, the company have raised a few times on the basis that the money would be used to finance trials, but here we are, a long time later, still with no active trials.
The bloke is a moron.

[oldnotwise] 29/11/2018 13:41

Panama...
I have to say I don't necessarily agree with the manner in which you've explained the BOD's failure to secure the funding we'd like to have seen, and the situation regarding the increased emols and distributions to various Board Members in some cases do leave the BOD in a rather exposed position.
However, the comments in the Trinity report do cover the disappointment many have felt in the funding of the two platforms and the effect that's had on progression to commercialisation. I think that's a positive for PIs.
My point in my earlier post was confined to posters who felt they were qualified to put forward "Valuations" and I stand by my comments relating to that source. I know some Board members have made statements that I'm sure they've personally come to regret but hopefully we can expect a more positive set of results from any future cash/Finance raisings that come to pass.
So as you'll see, I'm certainly not disagreeing completely with your post, but I would interpret it differently from the way you have.
Hope that clarifies my position.
AIMO
ATB

[panama7] 29/11/2018 13:28

ONW, no one has spouted absolute nonsense with regards to valuations and share price than the BOD. Goodfellow has misled and conned Investors for 6 years , has walked away with 300k of Investors money in his back pocket and left the share price at an all time low. He raised funds at 22p with a remit of the trial leading to deals as was stated at the time " we will now be in a position to enter deals on both platforms". The bloke completely failed in his remit as CEO, he failed as a Commercial Director to achieve anything commercially for the Company and Shareholders. I don't know why Posters consistently question other Posters share price forecasts , it is not their ridiculous forecasts that have taken the share price to 8p it is the BOD who are solely responsible for their abysmal performance .

[the real lozan] 29/11/2018 12:59

Memo to JFK -
I hear you have reservations about today's visit to Dallas, Texas.
I DEMAND you listen ONLy to ME... When I give MY {the ONLY valid} assessment of the situation...This IS =
There is "NO RISK here" in Dallas,Texas
I add, that - In a couple of days, 'ALL thoughts that there EVER was ANY RISKS'...
WILL be forgotten.
As will, I INSIST, your visit to Dallas, Texas... Will be forgotten, in a matter of days hence.
.
Inane

[oldnotwise] 29/11/2018 12:24

Berm, Can't disagree with your points, BUT....
There's valuations and valuations.
I remember an exchange in the other place a few years ago (wish I could remember when). It was over a weekday lunchtime and one of the biggest cheerleaders for Scancell was taken to task by a new poster who'd made some (for that time) radical claims that the prospect of Scancell getting anywhere near commercialised for many years was a pipedream. There followed a very intense "Argument" on the Board and then it was all over as soon as it started! Within minutes all the posts from the new poster were removed!That posters' comments were very measured and very convincing... They seemed to know their stuff!
Bear in mind that that exchange was taken when the dreaded 132p?) valuation was still around (can't remember again whose it was) and as you say what's in a valuation? The problem IMO is simply that I'd prefer to be looking at a "sensible" and "Reasoned" figure (within the parameters of the prevailing SP) rather than a "Flashy" valuation, which is more a headline grabber than a realistic target. It would certainly have been a great deal more helpful for the market to be looking at an "under" expectation than an OTT "shouty" one.
Anyway, that's just my view, but we all know that some of these Broker Levels are as much to do with P+L as hard investment analysis! :-)
Anyway, there's still a 150% + move on Trinity's call.... Plenty to go for ... Hehe...
AIMO
ATB

[bermudashorts] 29/11/2018 12:08

ONW,-

Yes very easy to lose some sense of realism and perspective with any stock but especially with a bio operating in the oncology field because we all so desperately want it to succeed. Having said that the investment case here isn't really any valuation which is little more than guesswork, it's whether or not you believe Scancell will commercialise any of their products either via a licensing deal, a sale or by taking it to market themselves and if so at what sort of level financially.

Doc/Gazza,

Have to say that I was slightly surprised to read that paragraph from Trinity. Unfortunately until Scancell can secure more institutional investment they are very much reliant on retail investors - if that's giving them issues then there is one easy way to change it............

[oldnotwise] 29/11/2018 11:58

Gazza, I think the Trinity report is the way I'd have preferred to have been able to view SCLP in concert with other investors over the last six plus years. Sadly headline writers got in the way of the actuality of the situation, but now, with a more reasoned (Realistic) report to focus on AT LAST we might just be in a position to see a surprise in the share price for the right reasons... (not more disappointments due to unrealistic claims for the company and it's share price direction). In fact I begin to hope this might represent a watershed in the way the future's discussed ... ie we (as a group) Research, Invest and Wait (patiently) whilst maybe discussing new information in a reasoned and sensible manner.... Not taking every little piece of "News" as the start of a massive bull run in the share, or worse, posting permanently not about what's actually happening, but what some posters THINK or IMAGINE or DIVINE what is going on in the minds of the various members of the BOD.
I much prefer to get hard facts under the belt before trying to second guess the market. I cannot understand the idea of someone simply spouting half baked ideas that've just been produced rabbit like from the far corners of their over active imagination.
Yes, I'd agree Gazza, a very timely dollop of REALISM!! Well said.
AIMO
ATB

[tosh123] 29/11/2018 11:49

What it does go to prove, is that his inability to understand the most basic of principles, is now known outside of these BB's.
Hit total lack of any grasp of reality has now hit a much larger audience, and his failings are now highlighted in an independent publication.

[drdobson1] 29/11/2018 11:39

Yes Gazza I could have made that point more Obvious.
My main point was to Highlight the Failed Professor PLUM as falling totally into the category mentioned by Trinity as being ILL Informed and Tottaly Oblivious as to the risks here.
But what do you expect from a EGO obsessed Vilage Idiott who is a self CONfessed Liar and uneducated Oath and always WRONG

[gazza] 29/11/2018 11:10

DR, well pointed out. However, I would have phrased it slightly differently:

Scancell has a diverse shareholder register with a large number of smaller investors; whilst SOME of these are well-informed and technically competent, there are a many who are ILL-informed and technically INCOMPETENT who appear to be OBLIVIOUS to the risks. Can be spotted by the clock noises they make intermittently.

[gazza] 29/11/2018 11:05

Old, my sentiments exactly! Make what you will of the Trinity report but it does come with a massive dollop of REALISM.

[oldnotwise] 29/11/2018 09:32

Whilst its not what many will really want to see Trinity's published level seems to me to be a realistic viewpoint when looking at SCLP's immediate potential cash generation. Since all equity investment is based on the likely future cash generation (from the underlying assets) and the prospects for increasing that cashflow (P/E), maybe we can settle to some more realistic future share price "valuations" in the short/medium term. This obviously doesn't allow for a sudden and unexpected injection of cash from any significant deals for parts (or all) of the IP but purely in income terms the Trinity output looks more realistic than anything I've seen for a very long time.
This current target looks even more realistic if SCLP is actually going to pursue a business plan that doesn't involve the sale of IP, but the out licensing of parts or all of the IP in one form or another.
So all in all an I believe an element of realism has been brought to Scancell's immediate future (however much I'd prefer s target measured in £s rather than pence)..... BUT I'd rather be surprised by an share price that EXCEEDED the target rather than one that continually undershot the (way too optimistic) targets that have been applied over the last few years.
Well done Trinity... a breath of fresh - but not dangerously compressed - air!
AIMO
ATB

[panama7] 29/11/2018 09:26

Bermuda, if it was sold lock, stock and barrel it certainly would get anywhere near the attractive multiples of 34p Goodfellw stated 5 years ago. The vast majority of Investors would gladly take 50p today if it was on the table. the BOD have proved to be totally incompetent, they raised funds 5 years ago at 22p to carry out a trial that we were told would lead to deals. Not one single deal has materialised and they have since had to raise funds at ever decreasing levels and now have a historically low share price while lining their own pockets in the interim. Their contempt and lack of respect for their Investors was very evident at the AGM. If they need £12m in the next 12 months or so they would gladly raise at 2p it makes no difference to them whatsoever, they will still help themselves to 25% salary increases and adjust the share options accordingly. they really are quite a despicable bunch and have used Cancer to con Investors to fund their research.

[bermudashorts] 28/11/2018 16:50

Panmure's valuation was based on discounted deal value - so taking into account deals across the sector in the previous couple of years (2013/4) and then discounting for risk. They came up with a valuation of £177m after applying a 25% discount for risk. Trinity Delta have used standard rNPV valuation.

Trouble is that there is no easy and reliable way to value a pre-revenue biotech. - too many variables and unknowns. As you say Terror, currently value is around £30m - who knows what it would be with a lock, stock and barrel sale? If analysts can't work it out then we certainly can't but I suspect it would be significantly more than £30m.

[knowlesi] 28/11/2018 16:39

Trinity have used a very different methodology to arrive at the 21p - they have modelled expected cashflows of the three lead products used a discount rate of 12.5% (this essentially the time value of money $1 today is worth less tomorrow etc) and factored in probability of each product making it to market (20% for SCIB1, 15% for SCIB2, 10% for Modi). Panmure used relative valuation - basically saying XYZ is at a similar stage and worth this amount so SCLP should be valued at that. Neither is perfect - DCF is better for more predictable, mature, cashflow generating business than early stage biotech. I would probably suggest Panmure's approach is more sensible but it's all crystal balls really. One thing is clear - this is very much a 2020/21 story. Can't see much in the way of value catalysts until the three trials are completed and data can be accessed.

[terror] 28/11/2018 16:20

If you are struggling to ramp up a share, the MFF have a tried but untrusted tactic.

Bring up the Panmure 69p valuation.

Errr, no. That will not work but you have to laugh at their tenacity and perseverance.

It's 8p, that's what the market values the Company, the Science and the club holdings.

[tosh123] 28/11/2018 16:17

And the village idiot turns up with yet another totally useless and fundamentally flawed comment.... " its meaning less, The only way is to put the IP up against competition on the same like for like basis which can be done as we have no cash flow" .....

So the village idiot who has called everything wrong and ridiculed those of us that predicted that the share price would fall into the 7p - 8p range,( and much to the idiots detriment, were proven to be RIGHT and him to be VERY WRONG yet again ) preferring instead to demand that everyone follow his outrageous £8 prediction , now attempts to rubbish yet another market professionals valuation.. its laughable...

[bermudashorts] 28/11/2018 14:56

Really interesting paper 'The clinical trial landscape for PD1/PDL1 immune checkpoint inhibitors' if you click on link in tweet below. Some staggering facts and figures:-

As at Sep 2018 there were 2250 active PD1/L1 clinical trials
1716 of those trials are combination trials
The combined sum of all these trials aims to recruit 380,900 patients

A couple of points jump out in relation to Scancell. The first is this paragraph:-

1) 'Notably, the growth of new trials for melanoma has recently slowed down, possibly owing to the approval of the combination of nivolumab and ipilimumab. The extraordinary clinical benefits of this combination (response rate of 58%; N. Engl. J. Med. 377, 1345–1356; 2017) might have set too high a bar for
novel combinations to overcome'

Interesting to note the slight change of language re. the SCIB1 combination trial in the Trinity Delta report - making it clear that the trial will be a success if it matches the response rate of existing combination therapy of Opdivo and Yervoy but has a superior safety profile.

2) Recruitment rates for these trials has dropped from 1.15 patients per month per trial centre to just 0.35. This is where using major cancer centres with high volumes of patients such as MD Anderson and MSK should pay dividends.

[drdobson1] 28/11/2018 14:31

No doubt the mouse that can’t be killed that baNANA is always trHYPING on about stole the cheese.
When it comes to LYING,CONInG and THIEVING he is the true deer Leader

[panama7] 28/11/2018 14:30

Tosh, so the Company is now valued at 21p a share after being valued at 67p a share for 4 years. What on earth has happened to the 46p difference. I wonder if Goodfellow will be tweeting the new valuation as he has done with the 67p valuation on several occasions.

[the real lozan] 28/11/2018 12:19

21.1p a share ???
Not quite the Hardman 69p a share, sooo often 'trotted-out' by the BUY,BUY,BUY trHYPE SCAM 'GROUP' ???
Also, Tarquin omits to mention that 'trinitydelta' refer to the NEED for FUNDING
.
In recent years, SCLP have raised *DILUTING PIECEMEAL* money = On the basis of - placings "To provide for TRIALS"
TRIALS that DON'T start... BUT, *DILUTING PIECEMEAL* monies RAISED melt-away ...in keeping the company running = Which in turn leads to the NEED to RAISE monies AGAIN - "To provide for TRIALS"
Is it not time, SCLP, did 'One thing or the OTHER' ???
.
Mrs Lozan employs the same 'trick'..by downing half her glass of wine...then CLAIMS =
"Oh dear, I have no cheese to go-with my wine"...the cheese appears
The wine gets 'supped' leaving half the cheese =
"Oh dear, I have no wine to go-with my cheese" = more wine appears
The cheese gets devoured... leaving half a glass of 'unsupped wine'
and the process gets REPEATED
.
Does this 'practice' sound familiar...in cash-burn terms ???
.
How many more times ???

[tosh123] 28/11/2018 11:12

TF
They sure do... " We value the company, using a risk-adjusted DCF model, at £82.0m, or 21.1p a share " ... but please take note of the full sentence, theres a word contained within their statement that doesn't exist according to some uneducated idiots.